339
17
The Future, Design,
and Virtual Worlds
The distinction between the past, present and future is only a stubbornly persistent illusion.
—Albert Einstein
17.1 SOME PREDICTIONS FOR THE FUTURE
ANDTHEIRIMPACTON YOUR DESIGN OUTLOOK
In 1996, Bob Cringely wrote: “People care about people. We watch version after version of the same seven
stories on television simply for that reason. More than 80 percent of our brains are devoted to processing
visual information, because that’s how we most directly perceive the world around us. In time, all this will
be mirrored in new computing technologies” [1]. Bob Cringely was right; this progression toward visually
based computing technologies is occurring universally. Just think about how much more graphic our screen
interfaces have become, replacing text with images of wrenches and gears meaning “this is the edit button,
and that’s the settings button.”
We are due for some major changes in our relationship with computing technology. Here are three factors
that will contribute to this new experience: (1) the end of Moore’s law, (2) increased adoption of haptic
technology, and (3) increased levels of customization available to consumers for all the products they buy.
17.1.1 The end of moore’s laW
Yes, all things must end someday. “Moore’s law” [2], a speculation by Gordon E. Moore in 1965, that the
computer chip performance would double every 2 years has been falling short of that mark for a few years
now. This is not necessarily a disaster; rather, it is an opportunity for the computer industry to rethink and
redene the computer from the chips up. Already, we have seen the development of computers shift focus to
include cloud computing so they can expand their capacity, the development of more effective software, and
the increased intercommunication of the devices we use daily.
17.1.2 inCreased adopTion of hapTiC TeChnology
A laptop with a tactile touchpad may be sitting on your desk, and your mobile phone may be giving you haptic
feedback on every incoming e-mail. Haptic technology [3] is being subsumed into our interfaces everywhere.
17.1.3 inCreased CusTomizaTion of produCTs
From websites offering customizable T-shirts, posters, and coffee mugs to online 3D printing of your own
designs, customization [4] is driving our consumer market from “designer content” toward “user-designed
340 Virtual World Design
content.” Think about what that means for virtual worlds for a minute. The options for designing and model-
ing your own custom worlds, containing touch interactive elements, and downloading real versions of your
digital creations increase every year. Virtual versions of the tting room, the test drive, or a night on the
beach are waiting for further development, and with that progress will come new employment opportunities
for virtual designers.
17.2 EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES AND NEW DESIGN METHODOLOGIES
In the automotive world, designs for new cars are made by utilizing design technologies that span 40,000
years. Starting with a rough drawing (a method that started with prehistoric cave art), the car designer
moves the design to a computer model, and from that a full-size car is made from clay utilizing human- and
machine-created sculpture [5]. Designers in all practices have an enormous selection of tools and techniques
available to them. Let’s look at a few of the newer ones.
17.2.1 laser sCanning and 3d model maKing
Why do you need to model something that already exists when it can be scanned? You should not have
to undergo the tedious process of re-creating something digitally if you are willing to try some of the
consumer-based technologies available like Autodesk’s 123D Catch, Reconstruct Me, and KScan3D. For a
higher level of scanning over much larger areas, a LIDAR (light detection and ranging) system is used. These
scans are made to map archeological sites, subterranean caverns, and landscapes. With the digital informa-
tion in these scans, virtual objects can be created to t seamlessly onto real landscapes in the composite
image, such as the castle in the background of your favorite fantasy television show [6,7].
17.2.2 digiTal prinTing and faBriCaTion
The 3D printing “revolution” is just starting. With the popularity of this technology and the relative
affordability of the printers, like Buccaneer, Printrbot Simple, and Makibox A6 LT, a designer with
knowledge of 3D modeling and 3D print preparation can have a product prototype-making machine right
in his or her own studio. Or, the designer can start a business selling original 3D models in the 3Dprint-
ing marketplaces.
17.2.3 augmenTed realiTy and immersiVe enVironmenTs
If you are a designer of large things like houses and landscapes, augmented reality (AR) and immersive
head-mounted displays are probably of interest to you. These technologies are also undergoing substantial
development. The Junaio application can be downloaded to your phone for viewing virtual objects in your
real surroundings, and the Metiao company provides a platform for developing all sorts of AR applications.
The Oculus Rift has some potential for providing the designer with a way to display his or her 3D designs,
such as an architectural walk-through of a CG house that has been loaded onto the Unity platform.
It is not much of a stretch to think of Google Glass providing us with an architectural overlay lling in the
details on your new house site or revealing the underlying archeological layers of the Eternal City of Rome,
while you stroll its streets on vacation.
341The Future, Design, and Virtual Worlds
17.3 HOW THE NEW TECHNOLOGIES ARE INTERTWINING
In the process of writing this book, several technologies intertwined. The initial concepts and project plans
were developed on the 3D modeling system of SketchUp, meetings about the design and content were held
weekly in a virtual world created by OpenSim and Second Life code, and most of the gures that illustrate it
were created by taking screen shots of virtual content with the FRAPs and Screen Hunter Pro software. This
book would not have been possible a decade earlier. Every year, designers have more options for combining
their methodologies for design and presentation of design with new tools and software.
In the process of utilizing these technologies, it will be smart to remember the concepts of “Build ItOnce.”
A wise designer would constantly look for new technologies that support a streamlined design process, aug-
ment the communication within the team, and support a client’s needs. Like the car designers, you will be
accessing the knowledge and techniques from the last 40,000 years and choosing the critical path method
that works best for you and your company.
17.4 WHEN DO WE GET THE HOLODECK?
As you may recall from the virtual worlds timeline in Chapter 1, the television show Star Trek, the Next
Generation introduced the concept of the “holodeck” to audiences worldwide in 1987. Now, more than
25years later, converging streams of technology make this more reality than fantasy. Gartner’s hype cycle
for emerging technologies looks at technologies that have a great deal of promise for the future, lots of hype,
or both. In 2012, the folks at Gartner’s decided to focus their hype cycle chart on the concept of “tipping
points,” or technologies that are poised to make a signicant impact in our lives and how we use technology.
“We are at an interesting moment, a time when many of the scenarios we’ve been talking about for a long
time are almost becoming reality,” said Hung LeHong, research vice president at Gartner.
The smarter smartphone is a case in point. It’s now possible to look at a smartphone and unlock it via facial
recognition, and then talk to it to ask it to nd the nearest bank ATM. However, at the same time, we see that
the technology is not quite there yet. We might have to remove our glasses for the facial recognition to work, our
smartphones don’t always understand us when we speak, and the location-sensing technology sometimes has
trouble nding us. [8]
In the 2012 report, Gartner’s identied several technologies that they felt were at the tipping point. Among
them were “Internet of things,” big data, 3D scanners, and HTML5-Web GL. These are all interesting tech-
nologies to be sure, but how can you prepare for what is coming? Are we getting closer to having a holodeck?
In the near future, will you be designing for one? Let’s look at the convergent timeline in Figure17.1. As
you can see, a very broad base of interrelated technologies are pushing into the future and establishing the
foundation of a working holodeck. We still have some hurdles to clear, our computers need to understand
our vocal commands better, and we need develop advanced 3D projection systems in order to realize the
complete illusion of the holodeck. It is difcult to actually pin down a date when the holodeck might appear,
but we humans tend to actualize a future that we have taken time to think about and plan for [9]. Perhaps
if we could create a worldwide linked database, the process of actualizing our dreams would become more
robust and predictable.
One thing is for certain: The holodeck will need designers. Even with procedural creation of environ-
ments and landscaping, a designer will still be needed to decide how the whole environment goes together.
What an exciting project that will be.
342 Virtual World Design
Vocal
Understanding
Haptic
Feedback
Body
Tracking
Database
Access
3D Sound
Full Vision
Display
Anticipated Date
this technology
reaches Gartner’s
Hype Cycle Plateau of
Productivity and
becomes mainstream
Flow of Technology Towards a “Holodeck” Virtual World Experience
Social Analytics2015 - 2018
2018 - 2023
Siri
Near Field
Communication
Virtual
Personalities
Haptic
Clothing
Google Glass for
Virtual Worlds
Big Data
Gamification
Audio Mining
Speech Analysis
Natural-Language
Question Answering
Human
Augmentation
Mobile Robots
Internet of
Things -
Machine
Eco-system
Mesh
Networks
Sensor
Omni-directional
Treadmill
“Contact Lens”
Interface
Google Glass
Binaural
Sound System
Oculus Rift
Total
Immersion
“Holodeck”
2023 - 2053?
FIGURE 17.1 Diagram showing possible ow of technology over time that will lead towards the development of a
“holodeck” virtual world experience.
343The Future, Design, and Virtual Worlds
REFERENCES
1. Cringely, Robert X., http://www.cringely.com/2013/04/03/accidental-empires-chapter-17-do-the-wave/. Accessed
August 12, 2013.
2. Moore’s Law, Wikipedia article, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore’s_law. Accessed August 12, 2013.
3. Haptic Technology, Wikipedia article, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haptic_technology#Fourth_generation_haptics.
Accessed August 12, 2013.
4. Eliason, Erik, Three Reasons Why Mass Customization Is the Future of Consumer Products, Hufngton Post,
March 21, 2012, http://www.hufngtonpost.com/erik-eliason/mass-customization_b_1313875.html. Accessed
August 12, 2013.
5. McCosh, Dan, Driving; Most Cars Are Born as Models of Clay, New York Times, March 7, 2003, http://www.
nytimes.com/2003/03/07/travel/driving-most-cars-are-born-as-models-of-clay.html. Accessed August 12, 2013.
6. Lightcraft Technology, Post Production Workows, tech manual for postproduction using lidar, http://www.lightcrafttech.
com/support/doc/post-production-workows/tracking-renement-with-pftrack/. Accessed August 12, 2013.
7. Laser Scanning Buildings, website home page, http://www.laser-scanning-buildings.co.uk/. Accessed August 12, 2013.
8. Gartner’s 2012 Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies Identies “Tipping Point” Technologies that Will Unlock
Long-Awaited Technology Scenarios, press release, 2012, http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/2124315.
Accessed June 12, 2013.
9. Spreng, R. Nathan, and Brian Levine, Doing What We Imagine: Completion Rates and Frequency Attributes
of Imagined Future Events One Year After Prospection, Memory, 21, 458–466, 2013, http://www.academia.
edu/1975294/Doing_what_we_imagine_Completion_rates_and_frequency_attributes_of_imagined_future_
events_one_year_after_prospection. Accessed August 12, 2013.
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