Contents

Title Page

Copyright

About the Editor

Contributors

Preface

TOPIC CATEGORIES

Guide to the Encyclopedia of Financial Models

ORGANIZATION

Equity Models and Valuation

Dividend Discount Models

DIVIDEND MEASURES

DIVIDENDS AND STOCK PRICES

BASIC DIVIDEND DISCOUNT MODELS

THE FINITE LIFE GENERAL DIVIDEND DISCOUNT MODEL

CONSTANT GROWTH DIVIDEND DISCOUNT MODEL

MULTIPHASE DIVIDEND DISCOUNT MODELS

STOCHASTIC DIVIDEND DISCOUNT MODELS

EXPECTED RETURNS AND DIVIDEND DISCOUNT MODELS

KEY POINTS

REFERENCES

Discounted Cash Flow Methods for Equity Valuation

DIVIDEND DISCOUNT MODEL

CONSTANT-GROWTH DDM

NONCONSTANT-GROWTH DDM

INTUITION BEHIND THE DDM

COMPLICATIONS IN IMPLEMENTING THE DDM IN THE REAL WORLD

ADAPTING TO THE COMPLICATIONS: THE EARNINGS PER SHARE APPROACH

FREE CASH FLOW DCF MODEL—TOTAL FIRM VALUATION

CALCULATING FCF

USING THE CASH-FLOW STATEMENT TO ARRIVE AT OCF AND FCF

VALUING THE TOTAL FIRM

ESTIMATING TOTAL FIRM VALUE USING THE FCF MODEL

KEY POINTS

REFERENCES

Relative Valuation Methods for Equity Analysis

BASIC PRINCIPLES OF RELATIVE VALUATION

HYPOTHETICAL EXAMPLE

KEY POINTS

NOTES

REFERENCES

Equity Analysis in a Complex Market

AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO A SEGMENTED MARKET

DISENTANGLING

CONSTRUCTING, TRADING, AND EVALUATING PORTFOLIOS

PROFITING FROM COMPLEXITY

KEY POINTS

NOTES

REFERENCES

Equity Portfolio Selection Models in Practice

PORTFOLIO CONSTRAINTS COMMONLY USED IN PRACTICE

BENCHMARK EXPOSURE AND TRACKING ERROR MINIMIZATION

INCORPORATING TRANSACTION COSTS

INCORPORATING TAXES

MULTIACCOUNT OPTIMIZATION

ROBUST PARAMETER ESTIMATION

PORTFOLIO RESAMPLING

ROBUST PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION

KEY POINTS

NOTES

REFERENCES

Basics of Quantitative Equity Investing

EQUITY INVESTING

FUNDAMENTAL VS. QUANTITATIVE INVESTOR

THE QUANTITATIVE STOCK SELECTION MODEL

THE OVERALL QUANTITATIVE INVESTMENT PROCESS

RESEARCH

PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION

MONITORING

CURRENT TRENDS

KEY POINTS

NOTES

Quantitative Equity Portfolio Management

TRADITIONAL AND QUANTITATIVE APPROACHES TO EQUITY PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT

FORECASTING STOCK RETURNS, RISKS, AND TRANSACTION COSTS

CONSTRUCTING PORTFOLIOS

TRADING

EVALUATING RESULTS AND UPDATING THE PROCESS

KEY POINTS

REFERENCES

Forecasting Stock Returns

THE CONCEPT OF PREDICTABILITY

A CLOSER LOOK AT PRICING MODELS

PREDICTIVE RETURN MODELS

IS FORECASTING MARKETS WORTH THE EFFORT?

KEY POINTS

NOTES

REFERENCES

Factor Models for Portfolio Construction

Factor Models

ARBITRAGE PRICING THEORY

TYPES OF FACTOR MODELS

FACTOR MODEL ESTIMATION

USE OF PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS ANALYSIS

KEY POINTS

REFERENCES

Principal Components Analysis and Factor Analysis

FACTOR MODELS

PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS ANALYSIS

FACTOR ANALYSIS

PCA AND FACTOR ANALYSIS COMPARED

KEY POINTS

REFERENCES

Multifactor Equity Risk Models and Their Applications

MOTIVATION

EQUITY RISK FACTOR MODELS

APPLICATIONS OF EQUITY RISK MODELS

KEY POINTS

NOTES

REFERENCES

Factor-Based Equity Portfolio Construction and Analysis

FACTOR-BASED TRADING

DEVELOPING FACTOR-BASED TRADING STRATEGIES

RISK TO TRADING STRATEGIES

DESIRABLE PROPERTIES OF FACTORS

SOURCES FOR FACTORS

BUILDING FACTORS FROM COMPANY CHARACTERISTICS

WORKING WITH DATA

ANALYSIS OF FACTOR DATA

KEY POINTS

NOTES

REFERENCES

Cross-Sectional Factor-Based Models and Trading Strategies

CROSS-SECTIONAL METHODS FOR EVALUATION OF FACTOR PREMIUMS

FACTOR MODELS

PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF FACTORS

MODEL CONSTRUCTION METHODOLOGIES FOR A FACTOR-BASED TRADING STRATEGY

BACKTESTING

BACKTESTING OUR FACTOR TRADING STRATEGY

KEY POINTS

APPENDIX: THE COMPUSTAT POINT-IN-TIME, IBES CONSENSUS DATABASES AND FACTOR DEFINITIONS

NOTES

REFERENCES

The Fundamentals of Fundamental Factor Models

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS AND THE BARRA FUNDAMENTAL FACTOR MODEL

CRITICAL INSIGHTS FROM THE BARRA FUNDAMENTAL FACTOR MODEL

RISK DECOMPOSITION

KEY POINTS

NOTES

REFERENCES

Multifactor Equity Risk Models and Their Applications

MODEL DESCRIPTION AND ESTIMATION

RISK DECOMPOSITION

APPLICATIONS IN PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION AND RISK CONTROL

KEY POINTS

NOTES

REFERENCES

Multifactor Fixed Income Risk Models and Their Applications

APPROACHES USED TO ANALYZE RISK

APPLICATIONS OF RISK MODELING

KEY POINTS

NOTES

REFERENCES

Financial Econometrics

Scope and Methods of Financial Econometrics

THE DATA GENERATING PROCESS

FINANCIAL ECONOMETRICS AT WORK

TIME HORIZON OF MODELS

APPLICATIONS

KEY POINTS

REFERENCES

Regression Analysis: Theory and Estimation

THE CONCEPT OF DEPENDENCE

REGRESSIONS AND LINEAR MODELS

ESTIMATION OF LINEAR REGRESSIONS

SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS OF REGRESSIONS

DETERMINING THE EXPLANATORY POWER OF A REGRESSION

USING REGRESSION ANALYSIS IN FINANCE

NONNORMALITY AND AUTOCORRELATION OF THE RESIDUALS

PITFALLS OF REGRESSIONS

KEY POINTS

NOTES

REFERENCES

Categorical and Dummy Variables in Regression Models

INDEPENDENT CATEGORICAL VARIABLES

DEPENDENT CATEGORICAL VARIABLES

KEY POINTS

NOTE

REFERENCES

Quantile Regression

COMPARING QUANTILE AND OLS APPROACHES

REASONS FOR USING QUANTILE METHODS

BACKGROUND AND FURTHER EXAMPLES

KEY POINTS

REFERENCES

ARCH/GARCH Models in Applied Financial Econometrics

REVIEW OF LINEAR REGRESSION AND AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS

ARCH/GARCH MODELS

WHY ARCH/GARCH?

GENERALIZATIONS OF THE ARCH/GARCH MODELS

KEY POINTS

REFERENCES

Classification and Regression Trees and Their Use in Financial Modeling

TECHNICAL DETAILS

TREE PRUNING

STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES OF CART

APPLICATION OF CART IN STOCK SELECTION

KEY POINTS

NOTE

ACKNOWLEDGMENT

REFERENCES

Applying Cointegration to Problems in Finance

STATIONARY AND NONSTATIONARY VARIABLES AND COINTEGRATION

TESTING FOR COINTEGRATION

KEY POINTS

NOTES

REFERENCES

Nonlinearity and Nonlinear Econometric Models in Finance

STUDY OF NONLINEARITY IN ECONOMETRICS AND STATISTICS

NONLINEAR MODELS

NONLINEARITY TESTS

1 MODELING

FORECASTING

2 APPLICATION

KEY POINTS

REFERENCES

Robust Estimates of Betas and Correlations

OLS REVISITED

THEIL-SEN REGRESSION

ROBUST ESTIMATES OF BETA

ROBUST ESTIMATES OF CORRELATION

KEY POINTS

REFERENCES

Working with High-Frequency Data

WHAT ARE HIGH-FREQUENCY DATA?

HOW ARE HIGH-FREQUENCY DATA RECORDED?

PROPERTIES OF HIGH-FREQUENCY DATA

HIGH-FREQUENCY DATA ARE VOLUMINOUS

HIGH-FREQUENCY DATA ARE SUBJECT TO BID-ASK BOUNCE

HIGH-FREQUENCY DATA ARE IRREGULARLY SPACED IN TIME

KEY POINTS

REFERENCES

Financial Modeling Principles

Milestones in Financial Modeling

THE PRECURSORS: PARETO, WALRAS, AND THE LAUSANNE SCHOOL

PRICE DIFFUSION: BACHELIER

THE RUIN PROBLEM IN INSURANCE: LUNDBERG

THE PRINCIPLES OF INVESTMENT: MARKOWITZ

UNDERSTANDING VALUE: MODIGLIANI AND MILLER

EFFICIENT MARKETS: FAMA AND SAMUELSON

CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL: SHARPE, LINTNER, AND MOSSIN

THE MULTIFACTOR CAPM: MERTON

ARBITRAGE PRICING THEORY: ROSS

ARBITRAGE, HEDGING, AND OPTION THEORY: BLACK, SCHOLES, AND MERTON

KEY POINTS

REFERENCES

From Art to Financial Modeling

THE ROLE OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

INTEGRATING QUALITATIVE AND QUANTITATIVE INFORMATION

PRINCIPLES FOR ENGINEERING A SUITE OF MODELS

KEY POINTS

REFERENCES

Basic Data Description for Financial Modeling and Analysis

DATA TYPES

FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS

EMPIRICAL CUMULATIVE FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION

DATA CLASSES

CUMULATIVE FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS

KEY POINTS

NOTES

REFERENCES

Time Series Concepts, Representations, and Models

CONCEPTS OF TIME SERIES

STYLIZED FACTS OF FINANCIAL TIME SERIES

INFINITE MOVING-AVERAGE AND AUTOREGRESSIVE REPRESENTATION OF TIME SERIES

ARMA REPRESENTATIONS

INTEGRATED SERIES AND TRENDS

APPENDIX

KEY POINTS

NOTE

REFERENCES

Extracting Risk-Neutral Density Information from Options Market Prices

AN APPROPRIATE PARAMETRIC MODEL

TWO PARAMETRIC MODELS FOR RND ESTIMATION

FITTING THE MODELS TO DATA

KEY POINTS

NOTE

REFERENCES

Financial Statement Analysis

Financial Statements

ACCOUNTING PRINCIPLES

INFORMATION CONVEYED BY THE BASIC FINANCIAL STATEMENTS

ACCOUNTING FLEXIBILITY

KEY POINTS

NOTES

REFERENCES

Financial Ratio Analysis

RATIOS AND THEIR CLASSIFICATION

RETURN-ON-INVESTMENT RATIOS

LIQUIDITY

PROFITABILITY RATIOS

ACTIVITY RATIOS

FINANCIAL LEVERAGE RATIOS

COMMON-SIZE ANALYSIS

USING FINANCIAL RATIO ANALYSIS

KEY POINTS

REFERENCES

Cash-Flow Analysis

DIFFICULTIES WITH MEASURING CASH FLOW

CASH FLOWS AND THE STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS

FREE CASH FLOW

CALCULATING FREE CASH FLOW

NET FREE CASH FLOW

USEFULNESS OF CASH FLOWS IN FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

KEY POINTS

REFERENCES

Finite Mathematics for Financial Modeling

Important Functions and Their Features

CONTINUOUS FUNCTION

INDICATOR FUNCTION

DERIVATIVES

MONOTONIC FUNCTION

INTEGRAL

SOME FUNCTIONS

KEY POINTS

REFERENCES

Time Value of Money

IMPORTANCE OF THE TIME VALUE OF MONEY

DETERMINING THE FUTURE VALUE

DETERMINING THE PRESENT VALUE

DETERMINING THE UNKNOWN INTEREST RATE

DETERMINING THE NUMBER OF COMPOUNDING PERIODS

THE TIME VALUE OF A SERIES OF CASH FLOWS

VALUING CASH FLOWS WITH DIFFERENT TIME PATTERNS

LOAN AMORTIZATION

THE CALCULATION OF INTEREST RATES AND YIELDS

KEY POINTS

NOTE

REFERENCES

Fundamentals of Matrix Algebra

VECTORS AND MATRICES DEFINED

SQUARE MATRICES

DETERMINANTS

SYSTEMS OF LINEAR EQUATIONS

LINEAR INDEPENDENCE AND RANK

VECTOR AND MATRIX OPERATIONS

MATRIX OPERATIONS

EIGENVALUES AND EIGENVECTORS

KEY POINTS

NOTES

Difference Equations

THE LAG OPERATOR L

HOMOGENEOUS DIFFERENCE EQUATIONS

NONHOMOGENEOUS DIFFERENCE EQUATIONS

SYSTEMS OF LINEAR DIFFERENCE EQUATIONS

SYSTEMS OF HOMOGENEOUS LINEAR DIFFERENCE EQUATIONS

KEY POINTS

NOTE

REFERENCES

Differential Equations

DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS DEFINED

ORDINARY DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS

SYSTEMS OF ORDINARY DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS

CLOSED-FORM SOLUTIONS OF ORDINARY DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS

NUMERICAL SOLUTIONS OF ORDINARY DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS

NONLINEAR DYNAMICS AND CHAOS

KEY POINTS

NOTES

REFERENCES

Partial Differential Equations in Finance

PARTIAL DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS FOR OPTION PRICING

PRICING EUROPEAN OPTIONS WITH PDES

PRICING AMERICAN OPTIONS WITH PDES

CALIBRATION

KEY POINTS

NOTES

REFERENCES

Model Risk and Selection

Model Risk

MODELS AND MODEL RISK

SOURCES OF MODEL RISK

MANAGING MODEL RISK

KEY POINTS

REFERENCES

Model Selection and Its Pitfalls

MODEL SELECTION AND ESTIMATION

THE (MACHINE) LEARNING APPROACH TO MODEL SELECTION

SAMPLE SIZE AND MODEL COMPLEXITY

DANGEROUS PATTERNS OF BEHAVIOR

DATA SNOOPING

SURVIVORSHIP BIASES AND OTHER SAMPLE DEFECTS

MOVING TRAINING WINDOWS

MODEL RISK

MODEL SELECTION IN A NUTSHELL

KEY POINTS

REFERENCES

Managing the Model Risk with the Methods of the Probabilistic Decision Theory

AN OUTLINE OF PROBABLISTIC DECISION THEORY

MODEL RISK OF A SIMPLE PORTFOLIO

INVESTMENT IN A RISKY BOND

KEY POINTS

REFERENCES

Fat-Tailed Models for Risk Estimation

THE FUNDAMENTALS: NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

INCORPORATING HEAVY TAILS AND SKEWNESS: PARAMETRIC FAT-TAILED MODELS

INCORPORATING HEAVY TAILS AND SKEWNESS: SEMI-PARAMETRIC FAT-TAILED MODELS

COMPARISON AMONG RISK MODELS

KEY POINTS

NOTES

REFERENCES

Index

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