Index
Numbers
1966–69 bull market, major market top of, 27-29
final stages of, 44-47
1966–82 bear market, end of, 119-121
1968–70 bear market, major market bottom of, 71-74, 87-89
1969 market top, target calculations, 112-114
1970 market bottom, target calculations, 114-115
1970–73 bull market, major market top of, 29-31
final stages of, 47-48
1972–73 market top, target calculations, 115-116
1973–74 bear market, major market bottom of, 74-76, 89-91
1974–75 market bottom, target calculations, 117
1975–76 bull market, major market top of, 31-33
final stages of, 49-52
1976 market top, target calculations, 118-119
1980–81 bull market, major market top of, 33, 36
final stages of, 52-56
1981 market top, target calculations, 119-121
1981–82 bear market, major market bottom of, 77-78, 91-93
1982 market bottom, target calculations, 121-122
1982–2000 bull market
end of, 152
start of, 121-122
2000–2001 major market top, 151
Advance–Decline Line and, 157-159
major market indexes during, 152-157
NASDAQ Comp. Index during, 172-177
S&P 500 during, 167-172
S&P industry sectors and, 160-165
2000–2003 bear market
loss distribution in, 155
major market bottom of, 78-80, 93-96
2002–2003 market bottom, target calculations, 122-124
2003–2007 bull market, major market top of, 36-38
final stages of, 56-60
2007 market top, target calculations, 124-126
2007–2009 bear market
loss distribution in, 156
major market bottom of, 80-81, 96-99
S&P industry sectors and, 163-164
start of, 124-126
2008–2009 major market bottom, start of present bull market, 179-192
2009–present bull market, 179-192
30-week moving average (30-WMA)
calculating, 142-144
major market tops/bottoms and, 144-147
90% Days
in major market bottom identification, 64-67
in major market top identification, 25
A
accumulation phase (bull market life cycle), 20
Advance–Decline Line
calculating, 127-129
cyclical nature of, 140-142
during 2000–2001 market top, 157-159
major market tops/bottoms and, 129-138
operating companies only A–D Line, 138-140
AR (Automatic Rally) in major market bottom identification, 67-68
AR (Automatic Reaction) in major market top identification, 24, 40
Ayers, Leonard P., 128
B
Back Up to the Edge of the Creek in major market bottom identification, 86
basing pattern, 103
BC (Buying Climax) in major market top identification, 23, 40
bear markets. See also secular bear markets
1966–1982 bear market, end of, 119-121
2000–2003 bear market, loss distribution in, 155
loss distribution in, 156
S&P industry sectors and, 163-164
start of, 124-126
after major market tops
1968–69 market top, 44-47
1972–73 market top, 47-48
1976 market top, 49-52
1980–81 market top, 52-56
2007 market top, 56-60
life cycle of, 61-70
major market bottoms
1968–70 bear market, 71-74, 87-89
1973–74 bear market, 74-76, 89-91
1981–82 bear market, 77-78, 91-93
2000–2003 bear market, 78-80, 93-96
2007–2009 bear market, 80-81, 96-99
characteristics of, 62-71, 84-87
identifying, 195-196
target calculations
1969 market top, 112-114
1972–73 market top, 115-116
The Black Swan (Taleb), 151
Blumenthal, Earl, 105
bottoms. See major market bottoms
box size in point and figure charts, 104
bull markets. See also secular bull markets
1982–2000 bull market
end of, 152
start of, 121-122
2009–present bull market, 179-192
life cycle of, 20-21
major market tops
1966–69 bull market, 27-29, 44-47
1970–73 bull market, 29-31, 47-48
1975–76 bull market, 31-33, 49-52
1980–81 bull market, 33-36, 52-56
2003–2007 bull market, 36-38, 56-60
characteristics of, 21-27, 40-44
identifying, 194-195
phases of, 39-40
target calculations, 1970 market bottom, 114-115
Buying Climax (BC) in major market top identification, 23, 40
Buying Power Index
in Lowry Analysis, 17
in major market top identification, 25-26
C
Cause and Effect, 103-104
charts
30-week moving average (30-WMA)
calculating, 142-144
major market tops/bottoms and, 144-147
Advance–Decline Line
calculating, 127-129
cyclical nature of, 140-142
major market tops/bottoms and, 129-138
operating companies only A–D Line, 138-140
point and figure charts
1969 market top, 112-114
1970 market bottom, 114-115
1972–73 market top, 115-116
1974–75 market bottom, 117
1976 market top, 118-119
1981 market top, 119-121
1982 market bottom, 121-122
2002–2003 market bottom, 122-124
2007 market top, 124-126
constructing, 105-108
explained, 104-105
target calculations, 108-111
counts in point and figure charts
1969 market top, 112-114
1970 market bottom, 114-115
1972–73 market top, 115-116
1974–75 market bottom, 117
1976 market top, 118-119
1981 market top, 119-121
1982 market bottom, 121-122
2002–2003 market bottom, 122-124
2007 market top, 124-126
calculating, 108-111
Creek in major market bottom identification, 85
cyclical markets, secular markets versus, 2
D
de Villiers, Victor, 105
distribution phase (bull market life cycle), 21
DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average), 19
during 2000–2001 market top, 152-157
theoretical versus actual high and low, 113
Dow Theory, 13
Dow, Charles H., 11
downtrends. See bear markets
E–K
Elliott, Ralph N., 11
Falling through the Ice in major market top identification, 43
“flash crash,” 184-185
fractal nature of patterns, 193
Gann, William D., 11
“head and shoulders” top, 187-188
horizontal count, 108
“Identifying Bear Market Bottoms and New Bull Markets” (Desmond), 62
Jump Across the Creek in major market bottom identification, 85
Kirkpatrick, Charles, 138
L
Last Point of Supply (LPSY) in major market top identification, 42
Last Point of Support (LPS) in major market bottom identification, 85-86, 98
Law of Cause and Effect, 15, 103-104
Law of Effort vs. Result in Wyckoff Method, 15
Law of Supply and Demand
in Lowry Analysis, 13-14
in major market top identification, 25-26
measuring, 8
loss distribution
in 2000–2003 bear market, 155
in 2007–2009 bear market, 156
Lowry analysis
90% Days in major market bottom identification, 64-67
2000–2001 market top
NASDAQ Comp. Index during, 172-177
S&P 500 during, 167-172
2009–present bull market, 179-188
Buying Power Index in, 17
explained, 16-18
major market bottoms, characteristics of, 70-71, 86-87
major market tops, characteristics of, 24-27, 44
Selling Pressure Index in, 17
usefulness of, 193
biography, 12-14
Lowry Research, xv
LPS (Last Point of Support) in major market bottom identification, 85-86
LPSY (Last Point of Supply) in major market top identification, 42
M
The Magazine of Wall Street, 12
major market bottoms
30-week moving average (30-WMA) and, 144-147
1968–70 bear market, 71-74, 87-89
1973–74 bear market, 74-76, 89-91
1981–82 bear market, 77-78, 91-93
2000–2003 bear market, 78-80, 93-96
2007–2009 bear market, 80-81, 96-99
2008–2009 market bottom, start of present bull market, 179-192
Advance–Decline Line and, 129-138
characteristics of
Wyckoff analysis, 62-70, 84-86
identifying, 195-196
target calculations in point and figure charts, 108-111
1970 market bottom, 114-115
1974–75 market bottom, 117
1982 market bottom, 121-122
2002–2003 market bottom, 122-124
major market tops
30-week moving average (30-WMA) and, 144-147
1966–69 bull market, 27-29
final stages of, 44-47
1970–73 bull market, 29-31
final stages of, 47-48
1975–76 bull market, 31-33
final stages of, 49-52
final stages of, 52-56
2000–2001 market top, 151
Advance–Decline Line and, 157-159
major market indexes during, 152-157
NASDAQ Comp. Index during, 172-177
S&P 500 during, 167-172
S&P industry sectors and, 160-165
2003–2007 bull market, 36-38
final stages of, 56-60
Advance–Decline Line and, 129-138
characteristics of, 21
combining Wyckoff and Lowry analyses, 26-27
Wyckoff analysis, 22-24, 40-42
identifying, 194-195
phases of, 39-40
target calculations in point and figure charts, 108-111
1969 market top, 112-114
1972–73 market top, 115-116
1976 market top, 118-119
1981 market top, 119-121
2007 market top, 124-126
market indexes during 2000–2001 market top, 152-157
market leadership as secular bull/bear indicator, 4
measuring Supply and Demand, 8
Mills, Mansfield, 14
moving averages, 30-week moving average (30-WMA)
calculating, 142-144
major market tops/bottoms and, 144-147
multicolinearity, 149
Murphy, John, 130
N
NASDAQ Advance–Decline Line, 127, 141
NASDAQ Comp. Index during 2000–2001 market top, 172-177
NASDAQ during 2000–2001 market top, 152-157
1966–69 bull market, major market top of, 27-29
final stages of, 44-47
1966–82 bear market, end of, 119-121
1968–70 bear market, major market bottom of, 71-74, 87-89
1969 market top, target calculations, 112-114
1970 market bottom, target calculations, 114-115
1970–73 bull market, major market top of, 29-31
final stages of, 47-48
1972–73 market top, target calculations, 115-116
1973–74 bear market, major market bottom of, 74-76, 89-91
1974–75 market bottom, target calculations, 117
1975–76 bull market, major market top of, 31-33
final stages of, 49-52
1976 market top, target calculations, 118-119
1980–81 bull market, major market top of, 33, 36
final stages of, 52-56
1981 market top, target calculations, 119-121
1981–82 bear market, major market bottom of, 77-78, 91-93
1982 market bottom, target calculations, 121-122
1982–2000 bull market
end of, 152
start of, 121-122
90% Days
in major market bottom identification, 64-67
in major market top identification, 25
NYSE Advance–Decline Line. See Advance–Decline Line
O–P
operating companies only (OCO) A–D Line, 138-140
P/E ratio as secular bull/bear indicator, 4
panic phase (bear market life cycle), 62
patterns, fractal nature of, 193
constructing, 105-108
explained, 104-105
target calculations, 108-111
1969 market top, 112-114
1970 market bottom, 114-115
1972–73 market top, 115-116
1974–75 market bottom, 117
1976 market top, 118-119
1981 market top, 119-121
1982 market bottom, 121-122
2002–2003 market bottom, 122-124
2007 market top, 124-126
The Point and Figure Method of Anticipating Stock Price Movements (de Villiers), 105
Preliminary Supply (PSY) in major market top identification, 23, 40
Preliminary Support (PS) in major market bottom identification, 63-65
price as secular bull/bear indicator, 2
price/earnings ratio as secular bull/bear indicator, 4
Pring, Martin, 130
Pruden, Henry O., xv-xvi
PS (Preliminary Support) in major market bottom identification, 63-65
PSY (Preliminary Supply) in major market top identification, 23, 40
Q–R–S
recessions. See bear markets
reversal amount in point and figure charts, 104
S&P 500 during 2000–2001 market top, 152-157, 167-172
S&P industry sectors
2000–2001 market top and, 160-165
2007–2009 bear market and, 163-164
S&P Mid and Small Cap Indexes, 153
SC (Selling Climax) in major market bottom identification, 65-67
Secondary Test (ST)
in major market bottom identification, 68-69
in major market top identification, 24, 41
secular bear markets
1966–1982 bear market, end of, 119-121
investment examples, 6-7
secular bull markets versus, 2-6
secular bull markets
1982–2000 bull market
end of, 152
start of, 121-122
investment examples, 6-7
secular bear markets versus, 2-6
secular markets. See also secular bear markets; secular bull markets
cyclical markets versus, 2
defined, 2
Selling Climax (SC) in major market bottom identification, 65-67
Selling Pressure Index
in Lowry Analysis, 17
in major market top identification, 25-26
Shakeouts in major market bottom identification, 69-70
Sign of Strength (SOS) in major market bottom identification, 85
Sign of Weakness (SOW) in major market top identification, 42
Silver Thursday, 33
Springs in major market bottom identification, 69-70
ST (Secondary Test)
in major market bottom identification, 68-69
in major market top identification, 24, 41
Study Helps in Point and Figure Technique (Wheelan), 105
Supply and Demand
in Lowry Analysis, 13-14
in major market top identification, 25-26
measuring, 8
T
Taleb, Nassim, 151
target calculations with point and figure charts, 108-111
1969 market top, 112-114
1970 market bottom, 114-115
1972–73 market top, 115-116
1974–75 market bottom, 117
1976 market top, 118-119
1981 market top, 119-121
1982 market bottom, 121-122
2002–2003 market bottom, 122-124
2007 market top, 124-126
Technical Analysis: The Complete Resource for Financial Market Technicians (Kirkpatrick), 139
Terminal Upthrust in major market top identification, 42
30-week moving average (30-WMA)
calculating, 142-144
major market tops/bottoms and, 144-147
The Ticker Magazine, 12
tops. See major market tops
2000–2001 major market top, 151
Advance–Decline Line and, 157-159
major market indexes during, 152-157
NASDAQ Comp. Index during, 172-177
S&P 500 during, 167-172
S&P industry sectors and, 160-165
2000–2003 bear market
loss distribution in, 155
major market bottom of, 78-80, 93-96
2002–2003 market bottom, target calculations, 122-124
2003–2007 bull market, major market top of, 36-38
final stages of, 56-60
2007 market top, target calculations, 124-126
2007–2009 bear market
loss distribution in, 156
major market bottom of, 80-81, 96-99
S&P industry sectors and, 163-164
start of, 124-126
2008–2009 major market bottom, start of present bull market, 179-192
2009–present bull market, 179-192
U–Z
Upthrust after Distribution (UT) in major market top identification, 41-42
uptrends. See bull markets
vertical count, 108
volume, quantifying, 194
weight of evidence, 127
Wheelan, Alexander, 105
Wyckoff analysis
2000–2001 market top
NASDAQ Comp. Index during, 172-177
S&P 500 during, 167-172
2009–present bull market, 188-192
Law of Cause and Effect, 103-104
major market bottoms, characteristics of, 62-70, 84-86
major market tops, characteristics of, 22-27, 40-42
point and figure charts, 104
usefulness of, 193
Wyckoff Method
explained, 15-16
Law of Cause and Effect in, 15
Law of Effort vs. Result in, 15
Law of Supply and Demand in, 15
Wyckoff, Richard D., 7
biography, 11-12