List of Figures

FIGURE 1.1 Decision analysis process
FIGURE 2.1 Dimensions of decision complexity
FIGURE 3.1 The scope of decision analysis
FIGURE 3.2 A taxonomy of decision analysis practice
FIGURE 3.3 Single objective decision analysis
FIGURE 3.4 Two approaches to multiple objective decision analysis
FIGURE 3.5 Example of indifference curves
FIGURE 3.6 Benefits of value-focused thinking
FIGURE 4.1 Divergent and convergent thinking
FIGURE 5.1 Six elements of decision quality
FIGURE 5.2 Suggested prescription for resolving decisions
FIGURE 5.3 The dialogue decision process
FIGURE 5.4 The decision analysis cycle
FIGURE 5.5 Systems decision process
FIGURE 5.6 Strictly analytical process
FIGURE 5.7 Advocacy process
FIGURE 5.8 The Geneptin dialogue decision process
FIGURE 6.1 Example vision statement
FIGURE 6.2 Format of the decision hierarchy
FIGURE 6.3 RNAS decision hierarchy
FIGURE 6.4 Geneptin decision hierarchy
FIGURE 6.5 Data center location decision hierarchy
FIGURE 7.1 Objectives hierarchy for car purchase
FIGURE 7.2 Functional value hierarchy for car purchase
FIGURE 7.3 Comparison of objectives and functional objectives hierarchy
FIGURE 7.4 RNAS means–ends objectives hierarchy
FIGURE 7.5 Data center functional value hierarchy
FIGURE 8.1 Example strategy table
FIGURE 8.2 Defining two alternatives in a strategy table
FIGURE 8.3 Nested strategy tables
FIGURE 8.4 RNAS strategy table
FIGURE 8.5 Geneptin strategy table
FIGURE 9.1 Example influence diagram
FIGURE 9.2 Example of an Input Table
FIGURE 9.3 RNAS cash flow by business unit
FIGURE 9.4 Example of a sources of value waterfall chart
FIGURE 9.5 Waterfall chart of difference in value between alternatives
FIGURE 9.6 Example value components chart
FIGURE 9.7 Example of a tornado diagram
FIGURE 9.8 Example of a difference tornado diagram
FIGURE 9.9 Four types of value functions for increasing value
FIGURE 9.10 Geneptin influence diagram
FIGURE 9.11 Geneptin drill-down ID for market share
FIGURE 9.12 Geneptin tornado diagram
FIGURE 9.13 Data center location functional value hierarchy
FIGURE 9.14 Data center value components chart
FIGURE 9.15 Data center cost versus value plot
FIGURE 9.16 Data center waterfall chart
FIGURE 9.17 Data center sensitivity analysis for latency unnormalized swing weight without change in preferred alternative
FIGURE 9.18 Data center latency swing weight sensitivity with change in the preferred alternative
FIGURE 10.1 Roughneck ID fragment: decisions
FIGURE 10.2 Roughneck ID fragment with decisions and objectives
FIGURE 10.3 RNAS ID fragment with decisions, win-scenario variables, and value node
FIGURE 10.4 RNAS ID fragment with predecessors of NPV Cash Flow
FIGURE 10.5 RNAS ID fragment with predecessors of Investment/Divestment proceeds
FIGURE 10.6 Restaurant ID fragments
FIGURE 10.7 Complete RNAS influence diagram
FIGURE 10.8 Probability wheel
FIGURE 10.9 Expert assessment template
FIGURE 10.10 RNAS documentation of oil price assessment
FIGURE 11.1 Influence diagram for capacity planning example
FIGURE 11.2 Schematic decision tree for capacity planning example
FIGURE 11.3 Partial display of evaluated decision tree for capacity planning example
FIGURE 11.4 Extended Swanson–Megill and Brown–Johnson distributions
FIGURE 11.5 RNAS E&P profit and loss statement—growth strategy
FIGURE 11.6 RNAS value components chart
FIGURE 11.7 RNAS value components, as compared with the Growth strategy
FIGURE 11.8 RNAS EV cash flows
FIGURE 11.9 RNAS direct tornado diagrams
FIGURE 11.10   Direct and delta tornado diagrams for team hybrid and divest hybrid
FIGURE 11.11 One-way sensitivity analysis of RNAS hybrid strategies to Gas Price
FIGURE 11.12 Calculating value of clairvoyance on royalty in capacity planning example
FIGURE 11.13 Tar sands tornado diagram
FIGURE 11.14 Tar sands construction threshold exploits optionality
FIGURE 11.15 RNAS S-curves
FIGURE 11.16 Tar sands value-risk profiles
FIGURE 11.17 Flying bars chart for RNAS strategies
FIGURE 11.18 Assessing risk tolerance
FIGURE 11.19 EV and CE versus size of deal
FIGURE 11.20 Geneptin flying bar chart
FIGURE 11.21 Geneptin waterfall chart
FIGURE 12.1 RNAS investment efficiency curve
FIGURE 12.2 RNAS E&P production
FIGURE 12.3 Funding areas and levels
FIGURE 12.4 One possible portfolio
FIGURE 12.5 Benefit vs. cost plot of one possible portfolio
FIGURE 12.6 Trade space of portfolios
FIGURE 12.7 Selected portfolio for Cost C, better portfolio for same Cost (X), cheaper portfolio with same benefit (Y)
FIGURE 12.8 Curve with decreasing slope
FIGURE 12.9 Curve with varying slope
FIGURE 12.10 Combination of levels for curve with varying slope
FIGURE 12.11 Trade space of data center projects
FIGURE 12.12 Data for applications projects
FIGURE 12.13 B/C for applications projects
FIGURE 12.14 Efficient frontier for the data center
FIGURE 13.1 Communication
FIGURE 13.2 Decision analysis participants and communications paths
FIGURE 13.3 Communicating with senior leaders
FIGURE 13.4 Chart used to tell the story of the best technology
FIGURE 13.5 Tar sands decision tree
FIGURE 13.6 Data center cost versus value plot
FIGURE 14.1 LNG plant completion date tornado diagram
FIGURE 14.2 Plot of IA value versus life cycle phase
FIGURE 14.3 Base practices causing the IMS schedule delay
FIGURE A.1 Possibility tree
FIGURE A.2 Possibility tree with two distinctions
FIGURE A.3 Probability tree with two distinctions
FIGURE A.4 Reversing the order of a tree
FIGURE A.5 Probability distribution as a histogram
FIGURE A.6 Probability distribution in cumulative form
FIGURE A.7 Cumulative probability distribution of a discrete measure
FIGURE B.1 Elements of an influence diagram
FIGURE B.2 Types of influences
FIGURE B.3 Probabilities conditional on a decision and Howard canonical form
FIGURE C.1 The decision conferencing process
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