List of Figures
FIGURE 1.1 | Decision analysis process |
FIGURE 2.1 | Dimensions of decision complexity |
FIGURE 3.1 | The scope of decision analysis |
FIGURE 3.2 | A taxonomy of decision analysis practice |
FIGURE 3.3 | Single objective decision analysis |
FIGURE 3.4 | Two approaches to multiple objective decision analysis |
FIGURE 3.5 | Example of indifference curves |
FIGURE 3.6 | Benefits of value-focused thinking |
FIGURE 4.1 | Divergent and convergent thinking |
FIGURE 5.1 | Six elements of decision quality |
FIGURE 5.2 | Suggested prescription for resolving decisions |
FIGURE 5.3 | The dialogue decision process |
FIGURE 5.4 | The decision analysis cycle |
FIGURE 5.5 | Systems decision process |
FIGURE 5.6 | Strictly analytical process |
FIGURE 5.7 | Advocacy process |
FIGURE 5.8 | The Geneptin dialogue decision process |
FIGURE 6.1 | Example vision statement |
FIGURE 6.2 | Format of the decision hierarchy |
FIGURE 6.3 | RNAS decision hierarchy |
FIGURE 6.4 | Geneptin decision hierarchy |
FIGURE 6.5 | Data center location decision hierarchy |
FIGURE 7.1 | Objectives hierarchy for car purchase |
FIGURE 7.2 | Functional value hierarchy for car purchase |
FIGURE 7.3 | Comparison of objectives and functional objectives hierarchy |
FIGURE 7.4 | RNAS means–ends objectives hierarchy |
FIGURE 7.5 | Data center functional value hierarchy |
FIGURE 8.1 | Example strategy table |
FIGURE 8.2 | Defining two alternatives in a strategy table |
FIGURE 8.3 | Nested strategy tables |
FIGURE 8.4 | RNAS strategy table |
FIGURE 8.5 | Geneptin strategy table |
FIGURE 9.1 | Example influence diagram |
FIGURE 9.2 | Example of an Input Table |
FIGURE 9.3 | RNAS cash flow by business unit |
FIGURE 9.4 | Example of a sources of value waterfall chart |
FIGURE 9.5 | Waterfall chart of difference in value between alternatives |
FIGURE 9.6 | Example value components chart |
FIGURE 9.7 | Example of a tornado diagram |
FIGURE 9.8 | Example of a difference tornado diagram |
FIGURE 9.9 | Four types of value functions for increasing value |
FIGURE 9.10 | Geneptin influence diagram |
FIGURE 9.11 | Geneptin drill-down ID for market share |
FIGURE 9.12 | Geneptin tornado diagram |
FIGURE 9.13 | Data center location functional value hierarchy |
FIGURE 9.14 | Data center value components chart |
FIGURE 9.15 | Data center cost versus value plot |
FIGURE 9.16 | Data center waterfall chart |
FIGURE 9.17 | Data center sensitivity analysis for latency unnormalized swing weight without change in preferred alternative |
FIGURE 9.18 | Data center latency swing weight sensitivity with change in the preferred alternative |
FIGURE 10.1 | Roughneck ID fragment: decisions |
FIGURE 10.2 | Roughneck ID fragment with decisions and objectives |
FIGURE 10.3 | RNAS ID fragment with decisions, win-scenario variables, and value node |
FIGURE 10.4 | RNAS ID fragment with predecessors of NPV Cash Flow |
FIGURE 10.5 | RNAS ID fragment with predecessors of Investment/Divestment proceeds |
FIGURE 10.6 | Restaurant ID fragments |
FIGURE 10.7 | Complete RNAS influence diagram |
FIGURE 10.8 | Probability wheel |
FIGURE 10.9 | Expert assessment template |
FIGURE 10.10 | RNAS documentation of oil price assessment |
FIGURE 11.1 | Influence diagram for capacity planning example |
FIGURE 11.2 | Schematic decision tree for capacity planning example |
FIGURE 11.3 | Partial display of evaluated decision tree for capacity planning example |
FIGURE 11.4 | Extended Swanson–Megill and Brown–Johnson distributions |
FIGURE 11.5 | RNAS E&P profit and loss statement—growth strategy |
FIGURE 11.6 | RNAS value components chart |
FIGURE 11.7 | RNAS value components, as compared with the Growth strategy |
FIGURE 11.8 | RNAS EV cash flows |
FIGURE 11.9 | RNAS direct tornado diagrams |
FIGURE 11.10 | Direct and delta tornado diagrams for team hybrid and divest hybrid |
FIGURE 11.11 | One-way sensitivity analysis of RNAS hybrid strategies to Gas Price |
FIGURE 11.12 | Calculating value of clairvoyance on royalty in capacity planning example |
FIGURE 11.13 | Tar sands tornado diagram |
FIGURE 11.14 | Tar sands construction threshold exploits optionality |
FIGURE 11.15 | RNAS S-curves |
FIGURE 11.16 | Tar sands value-risk profiles |
FIGURE 11.17 | Flying bars chart for RNAS strategies |
FIGURE 11.18 | Assessing risk tolerance |
FIGURE 11.19 | EV and CE versus size of deal |
FIGURE 11.20 | Geneptin flying bar chart |
FIGURE 11.21 | Geneptin waterfall chart |
FIGURE 12.1 | RNAS investment efficiency curve |
FIGURE 12.2 | RNAS E&P production |
FIGURE 12.3 | Funding areas and levels |
FIGURE 12.4 | One possible portfolio |
FIGURE 12.5 | Benefit vs. cost plot of one possible portfolio |
FIGURE 12.6 | Trade space of portfolios |
FIGURE 12.7 | Selected portfolio for Cost C, better portfolio for same Cost (X), cheaper portfolio with same benefit (Y) |
FIGURE 12.8 | Curve with decreasing slope |
FIGURE 12.9 | Curve with varying slope |
FIGURE 12.10 | Combination of levels for curve with varying slope |
FIGURE 12.11 | Trade space of data center projects |
FIGURE 12.12 | Data for applications projects |
FIGURE 12.13 | B/C for applications projects |
FIGURE 12.14 | Efficient frontier for the data center |
FIGURE 13.1 | Communication |
FIGURE 13.2 | Decision analysis participants and communications paths |
FIGURE 13.3 | Communicating with senior leaders |
FIGURE 13.4 | Chart used to tell the story of the best technology |
FIGURE 13.5 | Tar sands decision tree |
FIGURE 13.6 | Data center cost versus value plot |
FIGURE 14.1 | LNG plant completion date tornado diagram |
FIGURE 14.2 | Plot of IA value versus life cycle phase |
FIGURE 14.3 | Base practices causing the IMS schedule delay |
FIGURE A.1 | Possibility tree |
FIGURE A.2 | Possibility tree with two distinctions |
FIGURE A.3 | Probability tree with two distinctions |
FIGURE A.4 | Reversing the order of a tree |
FIGURE A.5 | Probability distribution as a histogram |
FIGURE A.6 | Probability distribution in cumulative form |
FIGURE A.7 | Cumulative probability distribution of a discrete measure |
FIGURE B.1 | Elements of an influence diagram |
FIGURE B.2 | Types of influences |
FIGURE B.3 | Probabilities conditional on a decision and Howard canonical form |
FIGURE C.1 | The decision conferencing process |