CONTENTS

 Preface

1    Introduction

1.1   What Is Regression Analysis?

1.2   Publicly Available Data Sets

1.3   Selected Applications of Regression Analysis

1.3.1 Agricultural Sciences

1.3.2 Industrial and Labor Relations

1.3.3 History

1.3.4 Government

1.3.5 Environmental Sciences

1.4   Steps in Regression Analysis

1.4.1 Statement of the Problem

1.4.2 Selection of Potentially Relevant Variables

1.4.3 Data Collection

1.4.4 Model Specification

1.4.5 Method of Fitting

1.4.6 Model Fitting

1.4.7 Model Criticism and Selection

1.4.8 Objectives of Regression Analysis

1.5   Scope and Organization of the Book

Exercises

2    Simple Linear Regression

2.1   Introduction

2.2   Covariance and Correlation Coefficient

2.3   Example: Computer Repair Data

2.4   The Simple Linear Regression Model

2.5   Parameter Estimation

2.6   Tests of Hypotheses

2.7   Confidence Intervals

2.8   Predictions

2.9   Measuring the Quality of Fit

2.10 Regression Line Through the Origin

2.11 Trivial Regression Models

2.12 Bibliographic Notes

Exercises

3    Multiple Linear Regression

3.1   Introduction

3.2   Description of the Data and Model

3.3   Example: Supervisor Performance Data

3.4   Parameter Estimation

3.5   Interpretations of Regression Coefficients

3.6   Properties of the Least Squares Estimators

3.7   Multiple Correlation Coefficient

3.8   Inference for Individual Regression Coefficients

3.9   Tests of Hypotheses in a Linear Model

3.9.1 Testing All Regression Coefficients Equal to Zero

3.9.2 Testing a Subset of Regression Coefficients Equal to Zero

3.9.3 Testing the Equality of Regression Coefficients

3.9.4 Estimating and Testing of Regression Parameters Under Constraints

3.10 Predictions

3.11 Summary

Exercises

Appendix: Multiple Regression in Matrix Notation

4    Regression Diagnostics: Detection of Model Violations

4.1   Introduction

4.2   The Standard Regression Assumptions

4.3   Various Types of Residuals

4.4   Graphical Methods

4.5   Graphs Before Fitting a Model

4.5.1 One-Dimensional Graphs

4.5.2 Two-Dimensional Graphs

4.5.3 Rotating Plots

4.5.4 Dynamic Graphs

4.6   Graphs After Fitting a Model

4.7   Checking Linearity and Normality Assumption

4.8   Leverage, Influence, and Outliers

4.8.1 Outliers in the Response Variable

4.8.2 Outliers in the Predictors

4.8.3 Masking and Swamping Problems

4.9   Measures of Influence

4.9.1 Cook's Distance

4.9.2 Welsch and Kuh Measure

4.9.3 Hadi's Influence Measure

4.10 The Potential-Residual Plot

4.11 What to Do with the Outliers?

4.12 Role of Variables in a Regression Equation

4.12.1 Added-Variable Plot

4.12.2 Residual Plus Component Plot

4.13 Effects of an Additional Predictor

4.14 Robust Regression

Exercises

5    Qualitative Variables as Predictors

5.1   Introduction

5.2   Salary Survey Data

5.3   Interaction Variables

5.4   Systems of Regression Equations

5.4.1 Models with Different Slopes and Different Intercepts

5.4.2 Models with Same Slope and Different Intercepts

5.4.3 Models with Same Intercept and Different Slopes

5.5   Other Applications of Indicator Variables

5.6   Seasonality

5.7   Stability of Regression Parameters Over Time

Exercises

6    Transformation of Variables

6.1   Introduction

6.2   Transformations to Achieve Linearity

6.3   Bacteria Deaths Due to X-Ray Radiation

6.3.1 Inadequacy of a Linear Model

6.3.2 Logarithmic Transformation for Achieving Linearity

6.4   Transformations to Stabilize Variance

6.5   Detection of Heteroscedastic Errors

6.6   Removal of Heteroscedasticity

6.7   Weighted Least Squares

6.8   Logarithmic Transformation of Data

6.9   Power Transformation

6.10 Summary

Exercises

7    Weighted Least Squares

7.1   Introduction

7.2   Heteroscedastic Models

7.2.1   Supervisors Data

7.2.2   College Expense Data

7.3   Two-Stage Estimation

7.4   Education Expenditure Data

7.5   Fitting a Dose-Response Relationship Curve

Exercises

8    The Problem of Correlated Errors

8.1   Introduction: Autocorrelation

8.2   Consumer Expenditure and Money Stock

8.3   Durbin-Watson Statistic

8.4   Removal of Autocorrelation by Transformation

8.5   Iterative Estimation With Autocorrelated Errors

8.6   Autocorrelation and Missing Variables

8.7   Analysis of Housing Starts

8.8   Limitations of Durbin-Watson Statistic

8.9   Indicator Variables to Remove Seasonality

8.10 Regressing Two Time Series

Exercises

9    Analysis of Collinear Data

9.1   Introduction

9.2   Effects on Inference

9.3   Effects on Forecasting

9.4   Detection of Multicollinearity

9.5   Centering and Scaling

9.5.1   Centering and Scaling in Intercept Models

9.5.2   Scaling in No-Intercept Models

9.6   Principal Components Approach

9.7   Imposing Constraints

9.8   Searching for Linear Functions of the β's

9.9   Computations Using Principal Components

9.10 Bibliographic Notes

Exercises

Appendix: Principal Components

10   Biased Estimation of Regression Coefficients

10.1  Introduction

10.2  Principal Components Regression

10.3  Removing Dependence Among the Predictors

10.4  Constraints on the Regression Coefficients

10.5  Principal Components Regression: A Caution

10.6  Ridge Regression

10.7  Estimation by the Ridge Method

10.8  Ridge Regression: Some Remarks

10.9  Summary

Exercises

Appendix: Ridge Regression

11   Variable Selection Procedures

11.1   Introduction

11.2   Formulation of the Problem

11.3   Consequences of Variables Deletion

11.4   Uses of Regression Equations

11.4.1  Description and Model Building

11.4.2  Estimation and Prediction

11.4.3  Control

11.5   Criteria for Evaluating Equations

11.5.1  Residual Mean Square

11.5.2  Mallows Cp

11.5.3  Information Criteria: Akaike and Other Modified Forms

11.6   Multicollinearity and Variable Selection

11.7   Evaluating All Possible Equations

11.8   Variable Selection Procedures

11.8.1  Forward Selection Procedure

11.8.2  Backward Elimination Procedure

11.8.3  Stepwise Method

11.9   General Remarks on Variable Selection Methods

11.10 A Study of Supervisor Performance

11.11 Variable Selection With Collinear Data

11.12 The Homicide Data

11.13 Variable Selection Using Ridge Regression

11.14 Selection of Variables in an Air Pollution Study

11.15 A Possible Strategy for Fitting Regression Models

11.16 Bibliographic Notes

Exercises

Appendix: Effects of Incorrect Model Specifications

12   Logistic Regression

12.1  Introduction

12.2  Modeling Qualitative Data

12.3  The Logit Model

12.4  Example: Estimating Probability of Bankruptcies

12.5  Logistic Regression Diagnostics

12.6  Determination of Variables to Retain

12.7  Judging the Fit of a Logistic Regression

12.8  The Multinomial Logit Model

12.8.1  Multinomial Logistic Regression

12.8.2  Example: Determining Chemical Diabetes

12.8.3  Ordered Response Category: Ordinal Logistic Regression

12.8.4  Example: Determining Chemical Diabetes Revisited

12.9  Classification Problem: Another Approach

Exercises

13   Further Topics

13.1  Introduction

13.2  Generalized Linear Model

13.3  Poisson Regression Model

13.4  Introduction of New Drugs

13.5  Robust Regression

13.6  Fitting a Quadratic Model

13.7  Distribution of PCB in U.S. Bays

 Exercises

Appendix A: Statistical Tables

References

Index

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