Chapter 3
A Global Energy Outlook
Abstract
The “two-replacements” strategy is becoming an inexorable trend in the world energy development process. In this context, mankind must promote worldwide sustainable-energy development by recognizing and mastering the inherent law of energy development and by developing a global energy view from which global energy concerns are investigated and addressed with a global, historical, differentiated, and open perspective. The final aim is to put in place a global energy interconnection with a new energy landscape dominated by clean energy, focused on electricity and characterized by global resource distribution.
Keywords
energy development
global energy
interconnection
global energy outlook
high carbon
low carbon
1. Evolution of Energy Development
Energy is an important driving force behind the progress of human civilization. The global energy landscape itself is continually developing and undergoing a profound shift from high carbon to low carbon, from low efficiency to high efficiency, and from local balancing to wider-scale distribution. Recognizing and commanding this law of development is crucial for promoting energy science and implementing the “two-replacement” strategy.
1.1. “High Carbon” to “Low Carbon”
Throughout the history of energy development, mankind has been continually seeking more forms of energy to secure energy supply and satisfy the growing energy needs of socioeconomic development. Nevertheless, the dominant energy form has been different in different stages of development. With this variance in demand and the development of technology, dominant energy form continues to move toward lower-carbon territory. The carbon-reduction process is best represented by the replacement of firewood, coal, oil, and natural gas with hydropower, nuclear, wind, solar, and other forms of clean energy sources. Table 3.1 shows the carbon intensity of different energy forms.
Table 3.1
Carbon Intensity of Different Energy Forms (t-CO2/t-ce)
| Coal | Oil | Natural Gas | Hydropower | Nuclear Energy | Wind Energy | Solar Energy |
| 2.77 | 2.15 | 1.65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Source: BP, Statistical Review of World Energy 2014.
Fossil energy features very high carbon intensity, evidenced by the fact that enormous quantities of carbon have been emitted through more than a century of consumption. Meanwhile, the global temperature has increased by 0.74°C in the past century with a soaring carbon intensity. Since 1979, Arctic Sea ice has been disappearing by more than 70,000 km2 every year.1 In an attempt to mitigate climate change and ensure sustainable development for mankind, measures must be taken to substitute more fossil energy with clean energy within the energy structure. Mankind has unlimited solar energy and wind energy which promise large-scale development potential and are expected to become the most important clean energy in the future. Under existing and foreseeable future technological conditions, solar energy, and wind energy can be most conveniently exploited through transformation into electrical energy. The development of solar energy and wind energy not only embodies a replacement policy, but also provides clean sources for electricity-based replacement. See Fig. 3.1 for the evolution and development trend in the energy structure.
Figure 3.1 Evolution and Development Trends in the Energy Structure
1.2. Low Efficiency to High Efficiency
Technological innovation is the key to improve efficiency in energy exploitation and utilization. In the late eighteenth century, the steam engine as a technological innovation with epochal significance for energy development, promoted the large-scale and highly efficient development of coal, as well as catalyzed the transformation of production from manual labor to large-scale, machinery-aided manufacturing, hence greatly strengthening labor efficiency and social productivity. In the late nineteenth century, the steam engine’s potential for further technical improvement increasingly diminished and played a lesser role over time in promoting the coal-dominated energy structure. Appearance and broad application of the internal combustion engine and the electric motor, led to the emergence of new energy forms represented by oil and electricity as epoch-making inventions, which worked positively on energy efficiency and labor productivity. However, fossil energy efficiency now demonstrates increasingly lower potentials for further improvement. Currently, gasoline engines have a direct fuel efficiency of around 30% and the coal-fired generator has a maximum energy efficiency of around 50%.
As opposed to conventional fossil energy, hydropower, solar energy and wind energy are nonstorable energy forms that will be wasted if not developed. Therefore, many energy institutions, such as IEA and BP, take wind power, solar power, hydropower, and other transformative energy forms as the primary energy, while making statistical analyses. Given that clean energy may dominate the energy structure, energy efficiency will depend primarily on the transformation of primary energy, i.e., wind power, solar energy, and hydropower. Currently, electricity is far more efficient than directly applied fossil energy. An electric motor can have an efficiency rating of over 90%, significantly higher than a steam engine, gasoline engine, or coal-fired steam turbine (Fig. 3.2). As a result, if clean energy is developed in a large scale for electricity generation, global energy efficiency will experience a dramatic leap. This is an inherent attribute of clean energy that is not existent in fossil energy.
Figure 3.2 The Change in Energy Efficiency from Low Levels to High Levels
1.3. Local Balancing to Wider Optimization
As a product of modern societal development, the network has been the most significant technological innovation in human history and has contributed dramatically to social development. Networks link up scattered points, areas, and nodes to realize transmission, reception, and sharing of resources. If the locations of development and production with regards to raw materials and the location of demand for the finished product are far apart, a network can be established to optimize resources distribution, maximize efficiency, and minimize costs. This has given rise to the development of transport networks, power grids, railway networks, etc. From the view of energy development, the production end and the consumption end of fossil energy are notably characterized by reverse distribution at a global level. For example, oil and natural gas are delivered from South America and the Middle East to Asia, from the Far East and Siberia to Europe, over distances of several thousand kilometers. At present, energy distribution has assumed a clear networking trend from point-to-point transmission to widespread use of bulk transmission and pipeline networks. It is predictable that power grids will become the main channel of energy distribution in the future in the context of clean energy-dominated and electricity-centered energy development, as shown by Fig. 3.3. On the other hand, distribution of clean energy is highly uneven in the world. Except for a small number of clean energy schemes that can be distributed and utilized locally, most large hydropower plants, wind farms, and solar ranches in regions near the Arctic, the equator and the major continents are located hundreds or thousands of kilometers from the load centers. Therefore, power grids need to be constructed to transmit electricity to the load centers in the most economical and convenient way. With the global expansion of large-scale clean energy development efforts, the coverage of power grids is expected to further widen worldwide, forming a globally linked energy network.
Figure 3.3 Energy Distribution Through the Power Grid
2. A Global Energy Outlook
A global energy outlook requires investigating and addressing the world’s energy development concerns from a global, historical, differentiated, and open perspective and stance, with more importance attached to coordination between energy and politics, economy, society, environment, as well as overall development of the various centralized (or base type) and distributed energy facilities. A global energy outlook requires to follow the new trend of the “two-replacement” strategy within the global energy interconnection so as to integrate the development, distribution, and utilization of global energy resources, and ensure a safe, clean, efficient, and sustainable supply of energy. The outlook also requires compliance with the inherent law and adaptation to the new “two-replacement” strategy. Fundamental theories on global energy sustainable development are explored, summarized as basic principles according to which, the overall goal, strategic direction, fundamental principle, development trend, and strategic direction are formulated for future world energy development. This theoretical system is illustrated in Fig. 3.4.
Figure 3.4 The Theoretical System Enshrined in Global Energy View
2.1. Basic Framework
The overall goal is sustainable development. The primary task is to transform the development model from overdependence on fossil energy, remove the long-term threat to human existence from massive carbon emissions, and ensure sustainable development of human society. Since clean energy is an inexhaustible, carbon-free, and pollution-free form of energy, developing clean energy and increasing the proportion of electricity in the energy end-use structure on a global scale may be leveraged to relieve pressure on energy security due to increasing depletion of fossil energy. In addition, direct end-use of fossil energy may be reduced for lower carbon and pollutant emissions, and for a sustainable environment.
The strategic direction is the “two-replacements.” The transformation from high carbon to low carbon dictates a clean energy-guided trend in energy production. This is the theoretical rationale for the development of clean energy replacement at a global level. In this connection, the supply of clean, low-carbon energy shall start with the development at source of clean energies. The more widely clean energy replacement are applied and developed, the more the potential for further development. As clean energy replaces fossil energy as the main energy source, global development efforts on a wider scale are expected. The transformation of energy use from low efficiency to high efficiency determines the electricity-centered trend in energy end-use and is the theoretical rationale for electricity replacement and energy efficiency improvement. As is known to all, electricity has been so far the most efficient energy form, and can contribute to green and efficient energy use. If clean energy is transformed in a large scale into electrical energy in the most economical and convenient way, more electricity will be available for end-uses, it will promote the creation of an electricity-centered energy structure. The transformation of energy distribution from local balancing to wider-scale network development determines the grid-based energy transmission trend, which serves as a solid foundation for implementing the two replacements. As for electricity generation with conventional fossil fuels, electricity may be generated at the place of origin before transmission to the load center or primary energy may be transmitted to the load center for electricity generation. Since it is only possible for clean energy to be locally transformed into electricity before transmission to the load center, extensive and large-scale transmission facilities have to be constructed. Therefore, global clean energy development involves the construction of a global power transmission network linking up clean energy bases and load centers as a platform whereupon clean energy and electricity is globally developed, distributed, and utilized in a new structure.
A global energy view involves the fundamental principle of overall coordination. As energy issues are global involving many aspects of socioeconomic development, energy development should be integrated into and coordinated globally with the politics, economy, society, and the environment. Technological innovation and policy guidance should be in place to lower the dependence of socioeconomic development on fossil energy, increase the use of clean energy, alleviate, and ultimately eliminate the political confrontations and conflicts which result from the quest for limited fossil energy. In brief, a sufficient supply of clean energy is expected to contribute to a politically harmonious, economically collaborative, environmentally sound, and socially beneficial new world development pattern. In addition, because the energy development model is closely related to resource endowment, this would require due consideration of the endowment characteristics of energy resources (especially clean energy) in the course of energy development. Therefore, various centralized and distributed energy facilities must be developed in an efficient, integrated, and coordinated manner to secure a well-balanced energy supply system.
The development trend is one toward cleanness, electrification, networking, and smart technology. In the energy development process, a clean energy policy emphasizes replacement of clean energy for conventional fossil fuels for clean energy development. At the energy consumption end, an electricity-centered policy is implemented to substitute electricity for other end-use energy forms as the principle mode of energy consumption by distributing electricity to all power consumers. In the distribution process, a globally interconnected power grid will bring about flexible power distribution by grid transmission; innovations and advances in such fields as electric power technology, widespread application of information communication, and the interconnected grid would make power generation, grid operation, power consumption for clean energy safer, smarter, as an intelligent energy system is put in place.
The global energy view targets the strategic emphasis on the implementation of a global energy interconnection by linking clean energy development with utilization, such that clean energy from every corner of the world is distributed and made available at a global level. Characterized by an innovative system structures inspired by interconnected grids, the energy interconnection integrates many elements to a very high degree, e.g., energy, markets, information and services, and shares the typical Internet features in equality, interactivity, openness, and resources sharing.
The global energy interconnection is open to all forms of centralized or distributed power facilities, users, and grids, regardless of size or national origin. All users may interconnect to the grid, access the market, choose transaction counter parties on an equal footing, and realize fair exchange of energy, information, and service and open sharing of the network. The interconnected grid enables interaction between the energy producer and the user. The user may select the appropriate producer according to demand, and the producer may provide pertinent, differentiated, and individualized products or services for the user based on an analysis of mass consumption data. In addition, there will no longer be any more rigorous distinction between the energy producer and the user; one can assume the dual or, where necessary, interchangeable roles of producer and user by not just producing and consuming, but also sharing products and services with others. The final result is shared development on all sides on the global energy platform.
2.2. Core Content
The core content of the global energy view is to study and resolve energy problems from a global, historical, differentiated, and open perspective.
2.2.1. Global
The global energy view is focused on understanding and addressing energy issues from a global perspective. First, the nature of energy development is global. Due to the low energy intensity of the future energy structure that is focused on renewable energies such as solar and wind power, the availability of local renewable energy can hardly meet the energy requirements of developed regions with substantial energy needs. As a result, energy resources must be developed on a large or even global scale in order to ensure energy supply and sustainable-energy development, while meeting the practical development needs of modern society and population growth. With the benefits of scale, efficiency, and economy, centralized energy development is an important foundation of energy supply whereas distributed energy development is a key complementary source of energy, given its advantages of local resource- operation flexibility, and shorter distance to loading centers. These two energy development modes play an equal role in global energy development, with due regard for both centralized large-scale clean energy bases and distributed clean energy developments. Second, energy distribution is global. There is a global disequilibria in energy distribution with great diversities in energy type, availability, quality, and development difficulty in various regions. At the beginning of an industrial society, with a limited energy requirement, energy imbalance could be resolved locally, so energy distribution disequilibria was not a problem. However, continued economic and social progress demands even higher levels of energy development and utilization. As it is difficult for energy-consuming centers to meet their energy shortage with local supply, energy imports are increasingly required. The increasingly obvious reverse distribution of energy resource–rich regions and energy-consuming centers points to the objective need for large-scale energy distribution at a global level, to optimize energy distribution by building a mutually supportive and complementary structure in terms of geographical spread, energy type, and features. Third, energy security is global by nature. With the growing globalization of economies, the energy development among different countries is characterized by an interdependent and close-knit relationship. Energy security is a global rather than national or regional issue. Any significant change in the local energy situation will lead to volatile energy prices globally, resulting in supply tension. There is no absolute energy independence, even for an energy self-sufficient country. Fourth, environmental impact is global. The ecological environment is a dynamic system subject to different influences. Any change locally will have an impact on the overall situation. Modern energy development has a significant influence on the global ecological environment, causing geological damage, environmental pollution, and climate change. These are threatening the survival and development of human society. Improvement of the ecological environment depends on taking a global perspective and coordinating and integrating energy development and distribution at an international level, with efforts on all fronts to protect the global environment.
2.2.2. Historical
The global energy view was developed through long years of energy development, with an element of historical linkage. First, energy development is closely linked to the history of social development. The history of social development is also the history of energy progress. The low-level social development in primitive and agricultural society meant limited energy demand, with low energy efficiency. Animal power and firewood were primary energy sources. In an industrial society with rapid acceleration of productivity and social development, energy development has moved up toward electricity, nuclear power, and renewable energy from coal and oil. Our society is moving from industrial civilization toward ecological civilization. Second, energy development is closely linked to the progress of technological innovation. Along with the technological progress from hand-crafted technology to mechanization, automation, electrification, information, and network technology, the scale, efficiency, and economy of energy utilization are constantly increasing, facilitating the energy development mode to be transformed from one of low efficiency, extensive scale, high pollution, and high emission to one of high efficiency, energy conservation, cleanness, and low carbon emission. Third, all aspects of energy development are moving from lower to higher levels. It appears in the form of a shift from firewood and animal power to high quality coal, oil, and other forms of fossil energy and clean electricity. The energy development mode is transformed from exploitation of nonrenewable fossil fuels to clean renewable energy. The energy distribution mode is also changing from one of long-distance, low-efficiency railway, road, and pipeline transport, to instant power grid transmission. And energy utilization is changing from inefficient direct burning to efficient terminal use of electricity.
2.2.3. Differentiated
The global energy view emphasizes win–win partnerships and coordinated development by taking into account the differences in energy endowments, social development, and political and economic conditions between different countries and regions. First, energy endowments are different by nature. The energy resources distribution among different nations is uneven and the distribution of fossil energy and clean energy is different. Subject to the political, economic, environmental, and other factors of development, clean energy is gradually replacing fossil fuels as the dominant energy source. The focus of energy development, utilization, as well as the distribution of energy will change from being dominated by some countries and regions to a globally interconnected network with changes effected on an as-needed basis and the impact of energy endowment variability on energy development gradually removed. Second, the levels of energy development are different, depending basically on overall national strength. The stronger the overall natural strength, higher is the level of energy development achieved, and more advanced is the energy technology, the stronger is the resulting control over energy resources, which leads to a more rational energy structure with higher efficiency in energy production, utilization, and enhanced distribution capability. The global energy view emphasizes closer cooperation and shared development at an international level to promote the balanced development of energy worldwide. Third, the geopolitical conditions are different from country to country, as a political manifestation of a lack of fossil energy. The geopolitical condition of an international fossil energy-dominated energy landscape is highly complicated. A country exercises greater control over energy resources and it will have a greater say in the international political community. This situation results in a fierce competition for energy resources and a major transport route all over the world, with lasting tension seen in a number of energy-rich countries and regions. With a large-scale development and dominant position of clean energy, an adequate supply of energy will eventually get realized and the international energy situation will become lesser tensed. Geopolitically, one will see the energy situation shifting from one of confrontation to the achievement of a win–win outcome based on mutual benefit and cooperation.
2.2.4. Open
Global energy development is a dynamic process, with the continued evolution of energy types, structures, characteristics, and markets. First, energy resources are open by nature. Fossil fuels are characterized by scarcity and regional differences, with a close relation with territorial sovereignty, national security, and diplomacy. In contrast, clean energy is inexhaustible with an endless supply and unrestricted access. As a result, coordinated development efforts and sharing of resources on a global scale will become an inevitable trend in clean energy. Second, the clean energy system is characterized by openness. An open system is also a safer and more dynamic system. With a growing number and coverage of energy types, the energy system will move from simple energy development and supply toward developing multiple functions in terms of information, service, and interconnection. As a result, the integration of energy technology with information, material, and Internet technologies will also become an inevitable trend. The future energy system will be a global energy interconnection being fully open and with a global reach and interconnectivity capability. Third, the energy market is an open one. Ensuring an adequate supply of energy shall be an important basis and precondition for reviving the characteristics of energy as a common commodity, thereby building a fair and open energy market. The future energy market will be based on a global energy interconnection with open access for energy suppliers and consumers worldwide to achieve global power trading in accordance with established market rules.
Summary
1. Global energy development has experienced a course from high carbon to low carbon, from low efficiency to high efficiency, and from local balancing to wider-scale optimization. The two replacements are an inevitable trend in this sphere.
2. The global energy view is the principle theory for global energy development. The key point is that global energy resources analysis and solution should be based on a global, historical, differentiated as well as open perspective, and stance.
3. The global energy view defines a theoretical system for future energy development with an overall objective for sustainable development and a strategic direction toward “two replacements.” The fundamental principle is an emphasis on coordination, underlined by a trend toward cleanness, electrification, networking, and smart technology with a strategic focus on establishing a globally interconnected energy network.
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