Index
Note: Page numbers in italics refer to figures.
AAR. See After Action Reviews (AARs)
Absolute answers, search for, 75
Absolutely, use of word, 2
Action, 141
defined, 146
introduction to, 143
learning from, 9
operational problem solvers and, 147
readiness and, 220
stories about
Campbell’s Soup, 160
cell phones in Caracas, 154– 158
Omidyar network, 158
TerraPass, 162
Wal-Mart, 148
Wikipedia, 152
Ad hoc immersive experiences, 105, 111
Administrative waste, 42
Adversaries, learning from, 206– 207
After Action Reviews (AARs), 169– 170, 200
Agility, ambiguity and, 53, 227
Ambiguity
for creativity, 119
learning from, 218
learning to be comfortable with, 118
as satisfying/productive experience, 101
Anderson, Chris, 34
Answers
psychological benefits of having, 78
search for absolute, 75
Anthony, Susan B., 213
Army War College, U.S., 1, 46– 47, 55, 109
Army War College (continued)
AAR guidelines of, 203
Arquilla, John, 55
Artifacts from the future, 21
Ashoka, 212
Baby boomers
health economy and, 40
personal empowerment and, 29
as problem solvers, 71
retirement and, 29
Baran, Paul, 168
Beane, Billy, 5
Biehl, Amy, 63
Biotech Reverse Mentoring Program (P&G), 10
Blair, Tony, 94
Blogs, defined, 174
Bogost, Ian, 117
Bottom-up participation patterns, gaming and, 32
Buying cards, 205
California Coastal Commission, 3
Campbell, Doug, 101
Campbell’s Soup, 160
Caracas, cell phones in, action story about, 154
Case studies, 106
Cell phones in Caracas, action story about, 154
Cellular churches, 170
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), 55
strategic imperatives of, 56
Change, directions of, 25
Charles River City, 116
Ciccone, Mark, 110
Citizen journalists, 209
Clarity, complexity and, 52, 55, 226
Clean Air Act ( 1990), 212
Closed mind-sets, 80
Cloyd, Gil, 186
Comfort zones, 182
Commander’s intent, 54
Community schools, VUCA, 58
Complexity, clarity and, 52, 226
Computer connectivity, 37
Connections, 9
Consumers, engaged, behaviors of, 27
Content facilitators, 126, 129, 132
Content synthesis, 20
Corporate Athlete, 91
Corporations, get there early and, 3
Crest toothpaste, 4
Cruel 2 B Kind Self-Organizing Game, 117
Cruise lines, VUCA world and, 62– 63
Cyberspace, 33
Dalkey, Norman, 21
Darfur Is Dying, 116
Dark innovation, 39
Data books, 22
Deloitte & Touche, 112, 172 use of simulation at, 114
Delphi Technique, 21
Digital youth, flexing and, 179
Dilemmas. See also Problem solving
baby boomers and, 71
characteristics of, 74
defined, 73
leadership shifts required for, 75
modern strategic, leadership and, 147
problem solving and, 69
as source of inspiration, 81
fitness, 90
of future collaboration for global warming, 94
parenting, 93
Silicon Valley, 89
tuning levers for, 83
words and, 71
Direct simulations, 102
Dobson, Terry, 220
Drayton, Bill, 211
Economies of scale, 31
Education, in VUCA world, 57
Employees, engaged, 28
Empowerment, personal, 27
Engaged employees, 28
Environment, health concerns and, 43
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), 211
Expert opinion aggregation, 20
Extended selves, creating, 40
Extreme networks, 38
Extremes, polarization of, 37, 205
Face-to-face communication, 175, 176
Feedback, flexibility and, 169
Fishnet organizations, 165, 166
Fitness dilemma story, 90
Fixed-mind sets, 79
Flexible firms
stories about
external R&D, 186
IBM, 184
for near future, 190
Walt Disney World, 187
Flexible media, 173
developing ability for, 167
digital youth and, 179
places for, 170
principles for, 196
tuning levers for, 167
feedback, 169
identity, 170
memory, 169
resources, 168
rules, 168
structure, 168
thresholds, 169
Forecast Map, 26
hot zones in, 127
storylines of
grassroots economics, 31
health insecurity, 40
polarizing extremes, 37
smart networking, 35
Forecasts/forecasting, 16
approaches to, 19
artifacts from the future, 21
content synthesis, 20
ethnography, 21
expert opinion aggregation, 20
expert workshops, 20
historical analogy, 20
scenarios, 20
survey research, 20
visualization, 21
directions of change and, 25
Foresight
developing, 8
listening and, 13
Foresight to Insight to Action Cycle, xiii, 9, 10
foresight to insight, 86
immersion experiences for
adding value to stages of, 121
Insight to Action, 142
preparing groups for, 17
putting it together and, 223
VUCA dangers and, 50
Foresight to Insight to Action Workshops, 123
chunks of provocative insights for, 127
content facilitators for, 126, 129, 132
diverse groups for, 126
graphic artists for, 129, 130, 131
ingredients for successful, 124– 127
introductions, allowing time for, 127
meeting owners for, 124
planning, 124
PowerPoint for provocation in, 136
preparing minds for successful, 132
prioritizing in, 131
target outcomes for, 125
tips/techniques for successful, 134
venue/mood of room and, 129
Fox, Joe, 148
Framing, 226
Galinsky, Ellen, 169
Gaming, bottom-up participation patterns and, 36
Gee, James Paul, 118
General Motors, 205
insuring against loss and, 66
Get there early, 3
for corporations, 3
defined, 3
flexibility principle of, 196
for nonprofits, 3
Gettysburg Battlefield, “staff ride”
at, 107
Gibson, William, 33
Gilmore, Jim, 62
story about future collaboration to address dilemma of, 94– 100
Gore, Al, 139
Graphic artists, 129, 130, 131
Graphic game plan, 131
Graphic recording, group, 130, 131
Grassroots economics, 31
Group graphic recording, 131
Group participation, 36
Hacking, 39
Health economy, 40
baby booms and, 40
effect of climate change on, 41– 42
environmental concerns and, 43
impediments to, 42
language changes and, 41
nutrition and, 42
in VUCA world, 55
Health status, determinants of, 42, 43
Helmer, Olaf, 21
Historical analogy, 20
Holmes, Oliver Wendell, 70
Home monitoring systems, 66
Hope, 223
IDEO, 146
Ignatius, David, 109
Immersion experiences, 101, 122.
See also Simulations.
for adding value to stages of Foresight to Insight to Action Cycle, 121
ad hoc immersive experiences, 105, 111
alternate-reality games, 104
case studies, 106
improvisational acting experience, 110
learning to be comfortable with ambiguity and, 118
mentoring, 105
scenarios, 104
simulation gaming, 102
theatrical improvisations, 105– 106
3-D immersive environments, 104
Immersive learning, xiv
Improvisational acting experiences, 110
Improvisations, theatrical, 105– 106
Insight
to action (see Action)
developing, 8
leaders and, 8
Inspiration, dilemmas as source of, 81
Instant messaging (IM), defined, 174
Institute for the Future (IFTF), logo of, 15
operational principles of, 196– 199
organization chart, 198
Insurance, in VUCA world, 66
Iraq Study Group, 125
Jardine, Ed, 155
Jeffery, Lyn, 181
Jenkins, Henry, 114
Jung, Carl, 19
Kahn, Herman, 16
Kay, Alan, 202
King, David, 94
King, Martin Luther, Jr., 72
Kirsch, Susannah, 128
Knowledge Works Foundation (KWF), 58
Kyoto Protocol, 212
Lafley, A. G., 10, 91, 186, 218
Lambert, Joe, 88
Leaders
insight and, 8
prepared minds and, 18
sensing and, 8
Leadership
hints and hows for, 221
modern strategic dilemmas and, 147
shifts in, for problems/dilemmas, 75
simulation gaming for developing, 119
Learning
from After Action Reviews, 200– 204
from ambiguity, 218
in the field
from adversaries, 206
from citizen journalists, 209– 211
from employee experiences, 208
from field locations, 207
from what people buy, 204– 206
Learning ecologies, pervasive, 59
Learning economy, 59
Learning professions, realignment of, 59
Lee, Harry, 151
Lee, Robert E., 108
Le Guin, Ursula, 70
Leisure, in VUCA world, 62
Lightweight infrastructures, 33
Listening, 226
for stories, 88
understanding and, 52
Locative activity, 37
Long-tail economics, 34
Loyalty cards, 204
Martin, Roger, 147
McGonigal, Jane, 117
Media
flexible, 173
networked, 34
personal, 32
Medical error, 42
Meeting owners, 124
Meetup, 208
Megacities, 39
Memory, flexibility and, 169
Microfinance, 50
Military simulations, 106
Military strategy, 145
Mind-sets
closed, 80
fixed, 79
Mitchell, William, 177
“Moneyball” approach, 5
Morrison, Ian, 146
Muir, John, 213
Mullen, Nina, 88
Myers-Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI), 19
National Training Center, U.S. Army, 106
Net warfare, 55
Network communication skills, 175
Networked media, 34
Networked organizations, 183
memory in, 169
options for communicating in, 173, 174
Networking, smart, 35
Networking IQ, factors for, 36
Networking knowledge, 36
Networks, extreme, 38
Network structures, flexibility and, 168
Nonprofits, get there early and, 3
Nutrition, health and, 42
Oakland A’s, 5
Offices, corporate, 182
Officing, 171
Omidyar, Pierre, 158
Online lifestyle, 36
Online personnas, 190
OnStar service (General Motors), 205
Open-source technology, 29
Operational problem solvers, 147– 148
Opinion aggregation techniques, 21
Organizational memory, 169
Outrage industry, 64
Oxfam, 206
Pang, Alex, 33
Parenting dilemma story, 93
Parks, Rosa, 72
Pasteur, Louis, 45
PeaceMaker, 116
Peoplecentric offices, 30, 176
Personal empowerment, 27
Personal media, 32
Personal mobile computing, 37
Pietersen, Willie, 144
Pike Place Market, fish throwers from, 217
Pine, Joe, 62
Pottery Barn rule, 109
Powell, Colin, 109
PowerPoint, for provocation in workshops, 136
Prahalad, C. K., 154
Prediction, 16
Preparedness, disciplines of, 220
Preparing one’s mind for attending workshops, 132– 133
for sensing, 18
Problems
defined, 75
vs. dilemmas, 73
leadership shifts required for, 75
Problem solvers, operational, 147– 148
Problem solving. See also Dilemmas
cooperative models for, 83
dilemmas and, 69
language and, 71
Procter & Gamble, 4, 9, 186– 187, 206
Public education, in VUCA world, 57
Public policy strategy, 145
Pulse!!!, 118
Questionnaire results, 22
Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) tags, 34
Raser, John, 102
Rauschenbusch, Walter, 72
Readiness, disciplines of, 220
Referral behavior, 36
Resources, flexibility and, 168
Retirement, baby boomers and, 29
Reuters, 209
Reverse mentoring, 105
Rick, the peanut vendor, 215
Role-play simulation games, 104
Rules, flexibility and, 168
SARS outbreak, 33
Satyagraha, 72
Sauers, Len, 10
Saveri, Andrea, 83
Scale thresholds, flexibility and, 169
Scenario planning, 23
Schar, Mark, 128
Science, in VUCA world, 60
Seamless mobility, 177
defined, 174
Self-agency, 27
Self-customization, 28
Self-organization, 28
Sensing, 7
deep, 18
leaders and, 8
leadership and, 122
open mind and, 18
preparing one’s mind for, 18
requirements for, 19
true, 18
Sensor, Wayne, 122
Serious Games Initiative (SGI), 113
“Serious games” movement, 102– 103
Shirts, R. Garry, 120
Sibbet, David, 131
Silicon Valley story, 89
Simulation and Society (Raser), 102
Simulation gaming, 102, 109, 119, 121
for business, 102
for developing leadership, 119– 121
role-play, 104
Simulations, xiv. See also
Immersion.
at Deloitte & Touche, 114
examples of, 113
Charles River City, 116
Cruel 2 B Kind Self-Organizing Game, 117
Darfur Is Dying, 116
PeaceMaker, 116
Pulse!!!, 119
Serious Games Initiative, 113– 114
Virtual Team Challenge, 114– 116
military, 106
Simulation Training Systems, 120
Smart mobs (swarms), 35
Smart networking, 35
Smith, Kenneth W., 72
Social software, 35
Social Venture Network (SVN), 195
Sony, 3
Southwest Airlines, 145
Spore, 121
Sport-utility vehicles (SUVs), 43
“Staff rides,” 107
Starbucks, 182
Stata Center, 177
State Farm Insurance, 67
Stategic intent, 54
Stockton, Frank, 218
Stories, 121
about Silicon Valley, 89
fitness dilemma, 90
of future collaboration to address global warming, 94
parenting dilemma, 93
about flexible firms
about near future job interviews and, 190
external R&D, 186
IBM, 184
Walt Disney World, 187
about learning in the field Alegent Health, 207
Environmental Protection Agency, 211
Procter & Gamble, 206
Reuters, 209
Tesco, 204
UPS, 208
about strategic foresight/insight/ action, 148
Campbell’s Soup, 160
cell phones in Caracas, 154– 158
Omidyar Network, 158
TerraPass, 162
Wal-Mart, 148
Wikipedia, 152
listening for, 88
Storytelling, 87
Strategic intent, in VUCA world, 54
Strategy, 145
military, 145
sustainability, Wal-Mart story of, 148
Structures, network, flexibility and, 168
Stuart, James Ewell Brown (Jeb), 108
Sutton, Bob, 146
Swarms (smart mobs), 35
Synthesis workshops, 203
Target, 64
Teilhard de Chardin, Pierre, 72
TerraPass, 162
Tesco, 204
Theatrical improvisations, 105– 106
“The Lady or the Tiger” (Stockton), 218
Theme parks, VUCA world and, 63
3-D immersive environments, 104 Thresholds, scale, flexibility and, 169
Tolkien, J.R.R., 45
Toyota Corporation, 3
Uncertainty, understanding and, 52, 226
Understanding, uncertainty and, 52, 226
Uninsurance, 42
Video chat, defined, 174
Video gaming, xiv
Virtual Team Challenge, 114
Vision, volatility and, 51, 225– 226
Visualization, 21
Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP), defined, 174
Volatility, vision and, 51, 225– 226
VUCA (Vision, Understand, Clarity, and Agility)
dealing with, 224
health in, 55
insurance in, 66
leisure in, 62
opportunity in, 49
outrage industry and, 64
public education in, 57
science in, 60
strategic intent in, 54
VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity)
dealing with, 224
health in, 55
insuring against loss in, 66
leisure in, 62
opportunity in, 49
origin of term, 1
outrage industry in, 64
public education in, 57
roots of, 46
science in, 60
story about, 47
strategic intent in, 54
Wales, Jimmy, 152
Wal-Mart, 148
Walsh, Bill, 5
Walt Disney World, 63, 187– 190
Warfare
asymmetrical, 55
net, 55
War games, 107
Warren, Rick, 170
Watts, Alan, 79
Weeks, Anthony, 131
Weight Watchers International, 90
Wikis, 169
defined, 174
Win-win strategies, 83
Wisdom of Insecurity: A Message for an Age of Anxiety, The (Watts), 79
Words
dilemmas and, 71
limitations of, 70
Workforce, future backgrounds and styles of, 175
Workshops. See Foresight to Insight to Action Workshops
World of WarCraft, 208
Wright, Will, 121
Yunus, Muhammad, 50, 52, 53, 158
Zero-sum games, 83