CHAPTER 1

The Dawning Robot Revolution

Chapter Overview

A robot revolution is coming sooner than many of us think. This revolution will take place over the next two decades, when companies will deploy enormous numbers of human-interactive robots in a wide variety of consumer-facing roles. Robots will assume roles such as delivering room service in hotels, providing security in malls, assisting shoppers in stores, helping care for patients in hospitals, serving as sex workers, among thousands of other uses. Robots will also be sold to consumers to work in their homes as maids, gardeners, playmates for children, and companions for older adults. The very beginnings of the robot revolution have already started, though, to paraphrase an old expression, “We ain’t seen nothing yet.” Over the next two decades these robots will become increasingly intelligent and autonomous, driven by continuing advances in artificial intelligence. They will eventually be able to perform just about any task a person could do. The coming robot revolution will be unlike any other technological revolution the human race has yet experienced.

Defining Robots and the Current State of Affairs

As we complete this book in early 2020, humanity is at the cusp of a momentous robotics revolution. It is a revolution that will eventually impact just about every aspect of our lives. We can think of this as Phase Two of a transformative process that has already begun. Phase One, with roots going back to the 1970s, converted factories and warehouses from places that once teemed with human workers to environments that are now generally dominated by robotic devices that manufacture our products and move around our inventory. As significant as Phase One of the robotics revolution was, it will pale in comparison to the emerging Phase Two. Phase One took place generally behind the scenes, deep inside factories and warehouses. Phase Two of the robotics revolution will be far more dramatic, because this is when robots will: (a) become smarter and more interactive (driven by remarkable advances in artificial intelligence); and (b) occupy a closer proximity to us, moving into our homes, our schools, our hospitals, our communities, our white collar workplaces, our stores, our vacation destinations, pretty much everywhere we spend time. Over the next couple of decades, robots will make their way into our lives in increasingly large numbers and our world will never be the same again.

First, a definition—we define robots as intelligent devices that have a degree of self-direction. There are three important components to this definition (intelligent, devices and self-direction) worthy of further explanation. By intelligent we mean that they have some awareness of their surroundings, with the ability to continually learn and adapt so that they can interact with the world around them. With these capabilities, robots will walk up stairs, run down a crowded sidewalk without bumping into anything, and even drive fast-moving cars. For more advanced robots, this will include the ability to interact with humans—to recognize our voices and faces, to have substantive conversations with us, and to interpret our emotions. In this way, robots will act as pets, companions, and even friends. By devices we mean there is a physical presence, something to look at, touch, and feel. Finally, self-direction implies they have a degree of autonomy, meaning they can make their own decisions without anyone at their controls. They will be governed by self-learning, artificial-intelligence algorithms.

The process has already begun. Robots created as of early 2020 are fairly advanced in their intelligence and self-direction. Yet, they are infantile compared to what is to come in 5, 10, and certainly 20 years. Consider the following robots that are already among us:

• Large grocery store chains such as Giant Food and Stop and Shop have robots that cruise the aisles looking for spills and other hazards. Walmart recently bought 300 robots that can serve as janitors, autonomously cleaning their stores while shoppers are buzzing about all around them.
• Knightscope, Inc. has created a fleet of 4.5 to 6-foot tall rolling security robots (named K1, K3, K5, and K7) that patrol parking lots, office compounds, universities, and city streets. Resembling metallic cylinders with pointed tops, they navigate the terrain on their own, and use a complex set of video cameras, thermal imaging sensors, laser range finders, and radar to see better than a human could. They have visual technology that can recognize faces and read license plates, along with sensors to detect the presence of wireless devices. These (currently) unarmed robots were created to be on constant look out for crime or other anomalies and report it to human police and security. They have been referred to as a cuter, less aggressive Terminator (Williams 2013).
• Amazon has a prototype delivery robot named Scout, which looks like a large box on wheels, and which can navigate around our neighborhoods, move down sidewalks, and deliver packages right to our front doors. Rather than waving to your friendly UPS delivery person, soon you will get your packages from an autonomous robot.
• Indoor delivery is something robots can already do fairly well. Many hotels have robots that deliver room service. Some perform a small song and dance routine after delivery as their version of a “thank you.” Countless hospitals already have delivery robots that autonomously buzz about their floors delivering food and supplies.
• Current social robots can carry on conversations. Hilton Hotels has experimented with an interactive robot concierge named Connie, who can perform the basic functions of a hotel concierge (such as answer questions about what to do in the area and recom­mend good restaurants). A humanoid robot named Pepper, created by Softbank Robotics, has a cute and friendly face, and is able to recognize and react to human emotions. Pepper is only one of many robots currently sold or in development to serve as companion robots. Walker from UBTech is another. They have the ability to recognize faces, carry on conversations and, while still early in this technology, can interpret and respond to emotions.
• Self-driving cars are essentially car-shaped robots that think for themselves while interacting with a complex environment. Numerous car companies are currently investing heavily in this technology, with prototypes already on the road.
• Perhaps the closest thing we currently have to Rosie the robot maid (from the 1960s futuristic television show The Jetsons) is the Care-o-bot 4 from the Fraunhofer Institute in Germany. It can roll around the house on its own, retrieve objects with its hands and arms, and carry on a conversation with its human housemates. And its face conveniently turns into an interactive computer console when needed.
• Boston Dynamics has created robots that can run through the varied terrain of a forest or urban setting. Some of these are four legged and resemble large animals, while others are humanoid in shape, such as their Atlas Robot.
• A conversant, humanlike robot named Sophia, made by Hanson Robotics, has made the rounds of television shows having truly interactive conversations with TV show hosts. Sophia is considered among the most advanced robots ever made.

See Figure 1.1 for selected robots discussed in the preceding text.

Figure 1.1 Robots already among us

As these examples suggest, the robots being developed to interact with humans in our daily lives (commonly referred to as social robots) are coming in a wide variety of shapes and sizes. Some are only a couple of feet tall or less, some are human-sized, some are car-sized. Some are made to look more humanoid, while others retain a purely mechanical look. Some have a more cute appearance (large eyes, infantile look) while others have a more severe appearance (we would not want to encounter the Atlas robot in a dark alley).

Quick Look at What Is to Come

Experts predict that over the next couple of decades, social robots will become commonplace in advanced economies such as the United States, Europe, China, and Japan. They will become an integral part of just about every aspect of our lives (Smith and Anderson 2014). Some of the predictions supported by mainstream futurists include:

• In our homes: Many homes will have robotic servants that cook, clean, and garden. Current robotic vacuum cleaners and lawn mowers from iRobot are the start of this trend. However, in the near future they will evolve and be able to dust furniture, cook our meals, plant flowers—and change their task priorities based on our verbal commands or their own assessment of household needs. They may not, in the short term, be up to the level of The Jetsons’ robot maid Rosie, but things are moving in that direction. Beyond housekeeping, robots will also play with and babysit our children. Robots will also serve as companions for adults, particularly those who are disabled, elderly, or live alone. They will play games with us, converse with us, and never get tired of us complaining about our day (Rouhiainen 2018).
• In hotels and restaurants: Hotels will increasingly have robots to check us in, deliver our room service, and tell us about the best restaurants, bars, and night spots in town, as any quality concierge would. Restaurants will employ robotic hosts, wait staff, bartenders, and cooks. In the not-too-distant future, we might spend a weekend at a hotel and interact with very few, if any, human employees (Rigie 2018; Trejos 2016; Hospitality Technology 2017).
• In hospitals and senior centers: Hospitals will have robots that bring our food, help us bathe, draw our blood, administer medical exams, and even perform operations. In senior centers, robots will deliver daily care such as assistance for using the bathroom, as well as help with personal grooming and dressing. Robots will help seniors go for walks outside, and even assist them with errands around town. They will also serve as companions to the elderly and other homebound individuals by conversing with them, playing games, and listening to their life stories (Medical Futurist 2016, 2018; Moise 2018). Health care is a labor-intensive industry, with round-the-clock staffing needs. Hence, it is an industry investing significantly in robotic technology.
• In schools and daycare: Robots will assist teachers in the classroom, helping students in one-on-one and group settings. They may eventually become teachers themselves. As in a person’s home, in daycare, robots will serve as babysitters and playmates for children (Rouhiainen 2018).
• In our sex lives: Simplistic robotic sex dolls have already gained a following. In a few years, far more advanced robotic models capable of mobility and greater humanlike interactions will capture the attention of even more customers (Morris 2018). Surprising numbers of people, particularly men, express openness to this type of encounter (more on this later).
• In stores: Robots will help us find the products we are looking for while shopping in stores, and tell us if the pair of pants and shirts we want to buy matches—the latter being a service at least one of the authors would greatly appreciate. They will serve as cashiers, security guards, and potentially even as store managers (Matthews 2018).
• On our streets: Robotic vehicles will cruise our streets, driving us around and also driving our trucks and delivery vehicles (Rouhiainen 2018). They may eventually serve as crossing guards, traffic directors, and police officers.
• On the battlefield: Robots will work with soldiers in battle zones, searching for IEDs, clearing land mines and potentially even fighting enemies alongside, or in place of, human soldiers (Bachman 2018).

The list of how robots will interact with us in our daily lives is endless. As with any significant trend, these changes will not happen all at once. Some of these changes will come to fruition within 5 years, while other predictions may take 20 years or a bit longer. Some of the scenarios discussed in the foregoing text could be generations away. However, experts in the fields of robotics and artificial intelligence believe this is the irreversible course that we are on, that robots will eventually have all these capabilities. There are tremendous economic, demographic, and social factors driving the increased usage of robots for all the tasks mentioned here.

That said, this will not be a straight line progression. There will be ups and downs in the production and usage of robots. Not every robot that is introduced to the market will be successful. Between 2017 and 2019, we have witnessed a string of social and at-home robot launches that have been failures due to lack of consumer demand (the Jibo, Kuri, and Cozmo robots to name a few—all of which will be discussed later in the book). For robots to be successful, they will have to prove their worth in the tasks they can do for us, or in the entertainment, social interaction, or personal fulfillment they provide.

Japan is on the cutting edge of the robotics revolution, due mainly to their aging society and lack of immigrants (Holodny 2016). Simply put, the Japanese need robots to perform many of their daily tasks because with each passing year they have fewer working-age humans to do them. In the United States, we can expect to see the incorporation of home-based robots first in the homes of wealthier members of society, most likely starting with Silicon Valley “techno-elites” and spreading to early adopters of technology in major metro areas. Robots will eventually filter down into the homes of middle class Americans, as prices are reduced. Before that, the average American will likely first encounter human-interactive robots in institutions such as hospitals, hotels, office buildings, and large stores.

A robot revolution is dawning; a revolution that will put intelligent and autonomous robots in close proximity with humans. Hence, now is the appropriate time to ask: How will people react to this significant social change—a change of the kind that has never before faced humanity? We approach these questions from a consumer point of view. It is in their role as consumers that individuals will decide whether or not they want to buy robots to assist them in their homes, and what tasks they do and do not want robots to do in their lives. It is in their role as consumers that people will decide whether or not they enjoy interacting with robotic room servants and concierges while staying at a hotel or whether or not they select a senior care center based on the presence of robots at the facility. Businesses need to quickly come to terms with the reality that how they design, introduce, use, and communicate about the robots they are deploying in consumer-facing environments will play a significant role in how consumers view their companies and brands.

Plan for the Book

In this book, we explore, and answer, the following questions:

• Robot roles: What activities will consumers readily allow robots to undertake in their lives and, conversely, what activities will they be more hesitant to turn over to them? We will look at situations in the home and in various service environments, such as hotels, restaurants, schools, hospitals, and assisted living facilities. Are consumers comfortable having robots cook their food, but perhaps not perform surgery on them? How about babysit their children?
• Robot appearance: How do we want our robots to look? Talk? Act? Should they mimic humans as much as possible, as in the replicates of the Blade Runner films? Or, should they remain distinctly mechanical, as in Star War’s R2D2? What aspects of robot design and behavior will make consumers more or less comfortable interacting with them? We will look at the role of cuteness in robot design, as well as the robot’s ability to gesture with its eyes, head, and hands—all of which are, in fact, quite important to fostering human trust and willingness to interact.
• Human-robot interactions: How can we best conceptualize the manner in which humans will interact with robots? Will we treat them more akin to tools, like we currently do with our computers? Will we interact with robots similar to how we interact with our pets—with affection and friendship, but thinking they are intellectually inferior to us? Or, will we treat robots as human? As equals? Will this depend on the robot itself—in terms of its appearance and role? We will explore many aspects of this, including the robot’s ability to recognize individuals, read emotions, convey a personality and maintain a distinct persona—all of which are important to fostering human interactions and bonding.
• Differences by consumer segments: Which segments of consumers are the most open to interacting with robots? And which are the least? We propose and examine four attitudinal segments based on their openness to the robot future: Scaredy Cats, Ostriches, Open-minded Realists and Not on My Radar. We also look at attitudinal differences by age, with younger individuals expressing more optimism about the robot future and show more willingness to utilize and interact with robots than do their older counterparts.
• General hopes and fears: Taking a step back from specific daily situations, we will explore more generally what hopes and fears people have about the coming robot future. What gives people the most hope and, conversely, the most fear when they think about the coming advancements in robot technology? In terms of hope, do people foresee a Jetsons-like future where robots happily do all our daily chores for us so we have far more leisure time? In terms of fears, are people mainly worried about the potential economic impacts, such as job loss? Or, are their anxieties more existential, such as the fear that robots will eventually take over society and enslave or even exterminate humanity (a Terminator-like future)?

We explored these questions via a series of nationwide online surveys that were conducted in the United States, involving over 2,700 adult consumers. We also conducted dozens of in-depth, in-person qualitative interviews lasting an hour or more each. In addition to our own research, we incorporate findings and insights from existing studies and expert commentary on the topic of robots and their interaction with humans. These secondary findings come from published academic studies, opinion surveys, press coverage, and the comments of experts from leading worldwide institutions such as MIT, Stanford University, and Oxford University.

From all of this work, we find a great deal of consumer excitement about the possibilities of robot advancement, but also a significant amount of concern. Most consumers have a fairly complex view of robots, with clear ideas about what roles are acceptable and not acceptable, as well as with which robot designs they are most comfortable. How consumers will interact with robots will vary based on the cues they receive from the robots themselves. For companies planning to utilize customer-facing robots, our research provides clear guidelines for what robot activities they should start with, versus what activities it may take a while (perhaps quite a while) for humans to trust robots to perform. Our research also provides insights for designing the appearance and personality of robots in a manner that will make them more acceptable to consumers.

The robot revolution is imminent. Let us understand how humans will react: what is going to work well, and what is going to lead to trouble.