Page numbers followed by ‘n’ refer to notes.
Aaker, Jennifer
abandon, option to, 2nd
after action
agile development
algorithmic decision making
alternatives, generating
Amazon
anchoring phenomenon
anticipation
Ariely, Dan
Army Corps of Engineers, US, 2nd
‘availability heuristic’ bias
averages, 2nd
awareness, 2nd, 3rd
Azoulay, Pierre
bad options
balancing loops
Baron, Jonathan
beliefs
attach probabilities to
about causal mechanics of the world
about current states of the world
future states of the world
placing bets on
stickiness to
truthfulness of
bell curve see normal distribution
bias(es)
benefits of
cognitive
de-biasing
checklist
3Ss (simplifying, sense-making and sticking)
binary criteria
Blenko, Marcia
blind spots
admitting to being wrong/not knowing answer
attach probabilities to beliefs
beliefs, categories of
benefits of
detection of
and avoiding false beliefs
good practice to making best possible argument for other side
humbleness
and identifying wrong beliefs
ignorance, types of
illuminating
placing bets on beliefs
predictably wrong
sceptic’s mindset, adopting
tap into other people’s minds for help
tendencies of mind
blind tests
“box and whiskers” plot
brains, 2nd, 3rd
Brin, Sergey
call option
causal loop diagram, 2nd, 3rd
causal theories
cause-and-effect relationships
Chaplin, Charlie, 2nd
checklists
to approach problems
to de-average
to de-biasing yourself
for decision audits
to figure out criteria
to finding new problem frames
to finding root causes
for incentives, 2nd
for marginal thinking
for regression to the mean
to running n=1 experiments
to running randomised control trial (RCT)
for smart options
for tree diagrams
choices
selecting from
using forced ranking to making
Circuit City company
claims, on two levels
cognitive biases, 2nd
cognitive distortions
cognitive limitations, 2nd
Collins, Jim
commission caps
comprehensive evidence, gathering
confidence calibration
confirmation bias, 2nd
conjunction fallacy
Constantin
control group, 2nd, 3rd
cost–benefit analysis, 2nd
counterfactuality, 2nd
criteria
checklist
developing to assess options
forced ranking and
scoring models and, 2nd
types of
working of
critical path method, understanding
critical thinking
“crowding-out” effect
cui bono (who benefits?)
Cusumano, Michael
Darwin, Charles
data
analysis
collection, 2nd
distribution, 2nd
missing
scrutinising
data exploration
benefits of
data distribution
hypothesis, formulating
information, gathering
reference points
scrutinising data
using descriptive statistics
de-averaging
checklist
using trees to
de-biasing
checklist to
de Saint Exupéry, Antoine
dead reckoning
Deci, Edward L.
decision audits
checklist
high-stakes decisions
decision making
algorithmic
option to abandon
option to delay
option to expand
decreasing marginal returns
DeepMind
delay, option to, 2nd
deliberate system thinking
Democratic Party
Dennett, Daniel
descriptive statistics
devil’s advocate
Dhar Airways
dis-improving criteria
disciplined decision processes
discursive process, in problem-framing
diversification
driver trees see tree diagrams
dual processing theory
Dunning-Kruger effect
‘earning to give’ idea, 2ndn5
80:20 rule
Eisenhower, Dwight D., 2ndn5
Eisenhower matrix, 2nd
Emerson, Ralph Waldo
Emmerich, Roland
employment probation
evidence, gathering
evolution
execution
exercise price
expand, option to
experimentation
benefits of
checklists, 2nd
examples
human intelligence tasks (HIT)
pilot plants
measuring impact of eating habits on sleep
randomised control trial (RCT)
running
sequential, 2nd
and testing
types of
extrinsic motivation
Facebook
fact-checker
fake(s)
as facts
news
Fannie Mae company
fault, finding
fault trees
feedback loops
balancing loops
reinforcing
Feynman, Richard
financial options, overview of
financial penalty
financial reward
Fiorina, Carly
first impression
five-number summary
fixed price
Flood Control Act of 1936
flow charts
using to finding root causes
forced ranking model
Fuller, Buckminster
functional dependencies
Galton, Francis
gap year
Gates, Bill
Gaussian curve see normal distribution
global financial crisis (2009), 2nd
Godzilla (Emmerich)
Good to Great (Collins)
Goodhart’s law
Google
Google Maps, 2nd
Graham, Paul, 2nd
group thinking
Harvard’s Implicit Association Test
heredity, concept of
Hershey, John
Hickson, John
hierarchies, tree diagrams
“human in the loop”
human intelligence tasks (HIT)
humility, nurturing
hypothesis, formulating
IBGYBG (I’ll be gone, you’ll be gone)
ideas, turning into action
identity coherence
ignorance, types of
Implicit Association Test
impression
improvement loop
incentives
aligning
benefits of
checklists, 2nd
Goodhart’s law
misalignments
note on extrinsic motivation
reasons for failing rational incentives
schemes, designing
incremental unit
information, gathering to discover insights
information-processing
instinctive system thinking
intentional responses
versus observed behaviours
“Internet of Things” devices
intrinsic motivation
intuition and common sense
intuitive knowledge
irrational incentives
Jones, Benjamin
Kahneman, Daniel, 2nd, 3rd
Kim, J. Daniel
knocked out (KO) option
knowledge
of facts
increase in
intuitive
“known knowns”
“known unknowns”
Korzybski, Alfred n1
leaders, demands on
level of confidence, 2nd
logical operators
loss aversion
luck, and skill
Manzi, Jim
marginal thinking
benefits of
building blocks of
checklist
examples
buying pair of shoes
hotel room prices
Income taxes
focus on next unit
marginal units
Mauboussin, Michael
Meadows, Donella H.
MECE (mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive)
mental tactics, 2nd, 3rd, 4thn1
MentalTactics.com
meta-analysis
mind
and brain
and consciousness
tapping into other people’s
tendencies of
and white spots
Miranda, Javier
misaligned incentives
moral hazard
principal-agent problem
monetary rewards, 2nd
moral hazard
Morbidity and Mortality (M&M) Conferences
motivations, 2nd
Munger, Charlie, 2nd
necessary conditions
net present value (NPV)
non-material rewards
Nordstrom
normal distribution
objective evidence, 2nd
opportunity costs
option to abandon
option to contract n65
option to delay
option to expand
option to switch
options
benefits of
checklist
in decision making
examples
buy/rent
flight/flex
gap year
maximising
note on bad options
overview of
use of
outcome variables, 2nd
overconfidence, 2nd
pareto distribution
pareto-optimal solution
performance
PetCo
pilot plants, experiments in
planning fallacy, 2nd
planning/structuring/execution, of work
Poisson distribution
Prasad, Vinay
pre-action, 2nd
pre-mortems
predictable biases, 2nd
predictions
placing bets on
Priceonomics blog
principal-agent problem
problem, defined
problem-framing
problem statements
productivity, systems thinking in
Programme Management Office (PMO)
put option
randomised control trial (RCT)
finding optimal price points using
randomness, 2nd
rational incentives, reasons for failing
real-life experiments
reality
rectangular distribution see uniform distribution
red teams/red cells
reference points
reflection, making space for, 2nd
regression to the mean
anticipating
benefits of
checklist
discovery
examples
praising/scolding
traffic safety
randomness
reinforcing feedback loops
Rookie of the Year (ROY) Award
root causes
versus symptoms
using flow charts to identifying
Rumsfeld, Donald, 2ndn16
Rushdie, Salman
safety, workplace
Sagan, Carl
sceptic’s mindset, adopting
scientific tests
scoring models, criteria and
building
second-order effects, of solving problem
selective cognition
self-fulfilling prophecy
self-interested analyst
self-reported responses
self-selected responses
sense-making, 2nd
sequential experimentation, 2nd
sharing economy
simplification
situational awareness
situations, and marginal thinking
Skadden Arps (US law firm)
social media
social proof
solutions, generating alternatives leads to
Sophomore Jinx
spider charts
stereotyping, category of
Stevenson, Betsey
stickiness, to beliefs
stories, sense-making
strictly improving criteria
strike price
sufficient conditions
Sugar Research Foundation
sunk costs
super-users
suspiciousness
switch, option to
symbolic rewards
symptoms versus root causes
system thinking
systems thinking
benefits of
examples
personal productivity
VHS–Betamax war
feedback loops
practicing
solving problems using systems approach
workplace safety
Taborrok, Alex
taking action, 2nd
territory (reality)
Tesla, Nikola
testing, experimentation and
thinking on the margin see marginal thinking
Thomke, Stefan
3Ss (simplifying, sense-making and sticking)
threshold criteria
treatment/control group, 2nd, 3rd
tree diagrams
benefits of
checklists, 2nd
clarifying priorities for further analysis
optimising recruiting pipeline, example
root causes, finding
structuring hierarchies
using to deconstructing problems
trial and error method
triangulation of landmarks
TripAdvisor
truth-seeking
truthfulness of belief
Tversky, Amos, 2nd
Uber, 2nd
uncertainty, 2nd, 3rd
underconfidence
uniform distribution
“unknown unknowns”
urgency effect
US Army Corps of Engineers, 2nd
VHS–Betamax war
von Mises, Ludwig
VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous) world
Wason, Peter, 2ndn8
Watson, H.A.
white spots, mind and
Wolfers, Justin
workplace safety
WYSIATI (What You See Is All There Is)
Zuckerberg, Mark
