Contents

PREFACE

PROLOGUE: RESILIENCE ENGINEERING CONCEPTS

David D. Woods & Erik Hollnagel

Hindsight and Safety

From Reactive to Proactive Safety

Resilience

PART I: EMERGENCE

1    RESILIENCE: THE CHALLENGE OF THE UNSTABLE

Erik Hollnagel

Understanding Accidents

Anticipating Risks

SYSTEMS ARE EVER-CHANGING

Yushi Fujita

2    ESSENTIAL CHARACTERISTICS OF RESILIENCE

David D. Woods

Avoiding the Error of the Third Kind

Dynamic Balancing Acts

Acknowledgements

3    DEFINING RESILIENCE

Andrew Hale & Tom Heijer

Pictures of Resilience

How Do We Recognise Resilience When We See It?

Is Road Traffic Resilient?

Conclusion

NATURE OF CHANGES IN SYSTEMS

Yushi Fujita

4    COMPLEXITY, EMERGENCE, RESILIENCE …

Jean Pariès

Introduction

Emergence and Systems

From Emergence to Resilience

Conclusion

5    A TYPOLOGY OF RESILIENCE SITUATIONS

Ron Westrum

Resilience against What?

Situation I. The Regular Threat

Situation II. The Irregular Threat

Situation III. The Unexampled Event

Time: Foresight, Coping, and Recovery

Foresee and Avoid

Coping with Ongoing Trouble

Repairing after Catastrophe

Conclusion

Acknowledgement

RESILIENT SYSTEMS

Yushi Fujita

6    INCIDENTS – MARKERS OF RESILIENCE OR BRITTLENESS?

David D. Woods & Richard I. Cook

Incidents are Ambiguous

‘Decompensation:’ A Pattern in Adaptive Response

Acknowledgements

7    RESILIENCE ENGINEERING: CHRONICLING THE EMERGENCE OF CONFUSED CONSENSUS

Sidney Dekker

Resilience Engineering and Getting Smarter at Predicting the Next Accident

Modelling the Drift into Failure

Work as Imagined versus Work as Actually Done

Towards Broader Markers of Resilience

PART II: CASES AND PROCESSES

8    ENGINEERING RESILIENCE INTO SAFETY-CRITICAL SYSTEMS

Nancy Leveson, Nicolas Dulac, David Zipkin, Joel Cutcher-Gershenfeld, John Carroll & Betty Barrett

Resilience and Safety

STAMP

The Models

Principal Findings and Anticipated Outcomes/Benefits

Implications for Designing and Operating Resilient Systems

9    IS RESILIENCE REALLY NECESSARY? THE CASE OF RAILWAYS

Andrew Hale & Tom Heijer

Introduction

Observations on Safety Management in Railway Track Maintenance

Assessing Resilience

Discussion and Conclusions

SYSTEMS ARE NEVER PERFECT

Yushi Fujita

10  STRUCTURE FOR MANAGEMENT OF WEAK AND DIFFUSE SIGNALS

Lars Axelsson

Problem Awareness

Forum for Consultation

Strengthening the Forum

Other Fora

A Bundle of Arrows

11  ORGANIZATIONAL RESILIENCE AND INDUSTRIAL RISK

Nick McDonald

Introduction

What is the Nature of Resilience?

Planning and Flexibility in Operational Systems

The Role of Quality and Safety in Achieving Resilience

The Problem of Organizational Change

Change in Technology

Conclusions – the Focus on Resilience

AN EVIL CHAIN MECHANISM LEADING TO FAILURES

Yushi Fujita

12  SAFETY MANAGEMENT IN AIRLINES

Arthur Dijkstra

Introduction

How Safe is Flying?

Current Practices in Safety Management

Models of Risk and Safety

What Next? From Safety to Resilience

13  TAKING THINGS IN ONE’S STRIDE: COGNITIVE FEATURES OF TWO RESILIENT PERFORMANCES

Richard I. Cook & Christopher Nemeth

Introduction

Example 1: Handling a ‘Soft’ Emergency

Example 2: Response to a Bus Bombing

Analysis

Conclusion

14  EROSION OF MANAGERIAL RESILIENCE: FROM VASA TO NASA

Rhona Flin

Vasa to Columbia

Managerial Resilience

Safety Culture and Managerial Resilience

Measuring Managerial Resilience

Training Managerial Resilience

Conclusion

15  LEARNING HOW TO CREATE RESILIENCE IN BUSINESS SYSTEMS

Gunilla Sundström & Erik Hollnagel

The System View: Implications for Business Systems

The Barings plc Case

What would have made Barings more Resilient?

Concluding Remarks

16  OPTIMUM SYSTEM SAFETY AND OPTIMUM SYSTEM RESILIENCE: AGONISTIC OR ANTAGONISTIC CONCEPTS?

René Amalberti

Introduction: Why are Human Activities Sometimes Unsafe?

Mapping the Types of Resilience

Understanding the Transition from One Type of Resilience to Another

Conclusion: Adapt the Resilience – and Safety – to the Requirements and Age of Systems

PART III: CHALLENGES FOR A PRACTICE OF RESILIENCE ENGINEERING

17  PROPERTIES OF RESILIENT ORGANIZATIONS: AN INITIAL VIEW

John Wreathall

Concept of Resilience

Approach of Resilience Engineering

Summary

Example: Adaptation of Leading Indicators of Organizational Performance to Resilience Engineering Processes

Acknowledgments

REMEDIES

Yushi Fujita

18  AUDITING RESILIENCE IN RISK CONTROL AND SAFETY MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS

Andrew Hale, Frank Guldenmund & Louis Goossens

Introduction

Structure of the ARAMIS Audit Model

Does the Model Encompass Resilience?

Conclusions and General Issues

19  HOW TO DESIGN A SAFETY ORGANIZATION: TEST CASE FOR RESILIENCE ENGINEERING

David D. Woods

Dilemmas of Safety Organizations

The 4 ‘I’s of Safety Organizations: Independent, Involved, Informed, and Informative

Safety as Analogous to Polycentric Management of Common Pool Resources

Summary

Acknowledgements

RULES AND PROCEDURES

Yushi Fujita

20  DISTANCING THROUGH DIFFERENCING: AN OBSTACLE TO ORGANIZATIONAL LEARNING FOLLOWING ACCIDENTS

Richard I. Cook & David D. Woods

Introduction

Barriers to Learning

An Incident

Organizational Learning in this Case

Extending or Enhancing the Learning Opportunity

21  STATES OF RESILIENCE

Erik Hollnagel & Gunilla Sundström

Introduction

Resilience and State-space Transitions

Conclusions

EPILOGUE: RESILIENCE ENGINEERING PRECEPTS

Erik Hollnagel & David D. Woods

Safety is Not a System Property

Resilience as a Form of Control

Readiness for Action

Why Things Go Wrong

A Constant Sense of Unease

Precepts

The Way Ahead

APPENDIX

Symposium Participants

Contributing Authors

BIBLIOGRAPHY

AUTHOR INDEX

SUBJECT INDEX

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