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Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era
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Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era
by Sarah Watt House, Azhar Iqbal, John E. Silvia
Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era
Preface/Justification
FOUR CHARACTERISTICS OF A LESS-THAN- PERFECT ECONOMY
WHY THIS BOOK?
Acknowledgments
CHAPTER 1 Setting the Context
THE PROBLEM WITH UNCRITICAL ASSUMPTIONS IN A LESS-THAN-PERFECT ECONOMY
THE PROBLEM WITH MODELS IN AN IMPERFECT ECONOMY
FOUR CHARACTERISTICS OF A LESS-THAN-PERFECT ECONOMY
ECONOMIC POLICY INCONSISTENCIES—THE PARABLE OF STRANGE BEDFELLOWS
NOTES
CHAPTER 2 Dynamic Adjustment in an Economy: Frictions Matter
INTRODUCTION
QUANTIFYING FRICTIONS: IS THE LONG-RUN AVERAGE A USEFUL GUIDE FOR THE FUTURE?
MODELING DYNAMIC ADJUSTMENT DUE TO ECONOMIC FRICTIONS: DECISION MAKING IN AN EVOLVING WORLD
DYNAMIC ECONOMIC ADJUSTMENT: AN EVOLUTION UNTO ITSELF
Appendix
A CASE FOR THE MULTIPLE MARKETS: 1983–2008
THE LABOR MARKET: 1983–2008
NOTES
CHAPTER 3 Information: Past Imperfect, Present Incomplete, Future Uncertain
STORY BEHIND THE NUMBERS
CONCLUSION
NOTES
CHAPTER 4 Price Adjustment and Search for Equilibrium
WHAT BARRIERS ARE THERE TO PERFECTLY FLEXIBLE PRICES?
IMPLICATIONS
FINDING DYNAMIC ADJUSTMENT IN THE DATA
CONCLUSION
NOTES
CHAPTER 5 Business Investment: This Time is Different
DRIVERS OF BUSINESS SPENDING
PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER: EXPLAINING SLOW RECOVERY IN CAPITAL INVESTMENT
NOTES
CHAPTER 6 Corporate Profits: Reward, Incentive, and That Standard of Living
INTRODUCTION: PROFITS AS ESSENTIAL PARTNER
THE ROLE OF PROFITS IN THE ECONOMIC CYCLE: FIVE DRIVERS
THE ROLE OF PROFITS: INCENTIVES AND REWARDS
CONCLUDING REMARKS: MODELING PROFITS
NOTES
CHAPTER 7 Labor Market Evolution: Implications for Private-Sector and Public-Policy Decision Makers
PART I: LABOR MARKET IMPERFECTIONS
PART II: HETEROGENEITY IN THE LABOR MARKET
PART III: HOW DO SECULAR LABOR MARKET TRENDS IMPACT ECONOMIC POLICY?
NOTES
CHAPTER 8 Inflation: When What You Get Isn’t What You Expect
INTRODUCTION
WHAT IS INFLATION?
WHY DOES INFLATION MATTER?
WHAT DETERMINES INFLATION?
INFLATION AFTER THE GREAT RECESSION
APPLICATION: PREDICTING IF CENTRAL BANKS CAN ACHIEVE PRICE STABILITY
NOTES
CHAPTER 9 Interest Rates and Credit: Capital Markets in the Post–Great Recession World
IMPERFECT GUIDANCE IN AN UNCERTAIN WORLD
A LOOK AT ACTUAL HISTORY OVER THE LONG RUN
CREDIT AND ADMINISTERED RATES
IMPERFECT INFORMATION AND CREDIT
CONCLUSION: SHIFT FROM HISTORICAL BENCHMARKS
NOTES
CHAPTER 10 Three-Dimensional Checkers: Open Economy, Capital Flows, and Exchange Rates
NEWTON’S THIRD LAW
INTRODUCING A NEW PRICE TO THE ANALYSIS: THE ROLE OF EXCHANGE RATES
THREE-DIMENSIONAL CHECKERS ON AN INTERNATIONAL PLAYING FIELD
A PERFECT MODEL IN AN IMPERFECT WORLD
CONCLUDING REMARKS: FUTURE LOOKS DIFFERENT
NOTES
CHAPTER 11 Assessing Economic Policy in an Imperfect Economy
GENERALIZED POLICY MODEL
RULES AND REPUTATION: BEYOND ECONOMIC BENCHMARKS
CONFRONTING OUR THREE MARKET IMPERFECTIONS
ECONOMIC POLICY IN THE CONTEXT OF AN IMPERFECT ECONOMY
NOTES
About the Authors
JOHN E. SILVIA
AZHAR IQBAL
SARAH WATT HOUSE
Index
EULA
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Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era
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Preface/Justification
CONTENTS
Preface/Justification
FOUR CHARACTERISTICS OF A LESS-THAN- PERFECT ECONOMY
WHY THIS BOOK?
Acknowledgments
CHAPTER 1 Setting the Context
THE PROBLEM WITH UNCRITICAL ASSUMPTIONS IN A LESS-THAN-PERFECT ECONOMY
THE PROBLEM WITH MODELS IN AN IMPERFECT ECONOMY
FOUR CHARACTERISTICS OF A LESS-THAN-PERFECT ECONOMY
ECONOMIC POLICY INCONSISTENCIES—THE PARABLE OF STRANGE BEDFELLOWS
NOTES
CHAPTER 2 Dynamic Adjustment in an Economy:
Frictions Matter
INTRODUCTION
QUANTIFYING FRICTIONS: IS THE LONG-RUN AVERAGE A USEFUL GUIDE FOR THE FUTURE?
MODELING DYNAMIC ADJUSTMENT DUE TO ECONOMIC FRICTIONS: DECISION MAKING IN AN EVOLVING WORLD
DYNAMIC ECONOMIC ADJUSTMENT: AN EVOLUTION UNTO ITSELF
Appendix
A CASE FOR THE MULTIPLE MARKETS: 1983–2008
THE LABOR MARKET: 1983–2008
NOTES
CHAPTER 3 Information:
Past Imperfect, Present Incomplete, Future Uncertain
STORY BEHIND THE NUMBERS
CONCLUSION
NOTES
CHAPTER 4 Price Adjustment and Search for Equilibrium
WHAT BARRIERS ARE THERE TO PERFECTLY FLEXIBLE PRICES?
IMPLICATIONS
FINDING DYNAMIC ADJUSTMENT IN THE DATA
CONCLUSION
NOTES
CHAPTER 5 Business Investment:
This Time is Different
DRIVERS OF BUSINESS SPENDING
PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER: EXPLAINING SLOW RECOVERY IN CAPITAL INVESTMENT
NOTES
CHAPTER 6 Corporate Profits:
Reward, Incentive, and That Standard of Living
INTRODUCTION: PROFITS AS ESSENTIAL PARTNER
THE ROLE OF PROFITS IN THE ECONOMIC CYCLE: FIVE DRIVERS
THE ROLE OF PROFITS: INCENTIVES AND REWARDS
CONCLUDING REMARKS: MODELING PROFITS
NOTES
CHAPTER 7 Labor Market Evolution:
Implications for Private-Sector and Public-Policy Decision Makers
PART I: LABOR MARKET IMPERFECTIONS
PART II: HETEROGENEITY IN THE LABOR MARKET
PART III: HOW DO SECULAR LABOR MARKET TRENDS IMPACT ECONOMIC POLICY?
NOTES
CHAPTER 8 Inflation:
When What You Get Isn’t What You Expect
INTRODUCTION
WHAT IS INFLATION?
WHY DOES INFLATION MATTER?
WHAT DETERMINES INFLATION?
INFLATION AFTER THE GREAT RECESSION
APPLICATION: PREDICTING IF CENTRAL BANKS CAN ACHIEVE PRICE STABILITY
NOTES
CHAPTER 9 Interest Rates and Credit:
Capital Markets in the Post–Great Recession World
IMPERFECT GUIDANCE IN AN UNCERTAIN WORLD
A LOOK AT ACTUAL HISTORY OVER THE LONG RUN
CREDIT AND ADMINISTERED RATES
IMPERFECT INFORMATION AND CREDIT
CONCLUSION: SHIFT FROM HISTORICAL BENCHMARKS
NOTES
CHAPTER 10 Three-Dimensional Checkers:
Open Economy, Capital Flows, and Exchange Rates
NEWTON’S THIRD LAW
INTRODUCING A NEW PRICE TO THE ANALYSIS: THE ROLE OF EXCHANGE RATES
THREE-DIMENSIONAL CHECKERS ON AN INTERNATIONAL PLAYING FIELD
A PERFECT MODEL IN AN IMPERFECT WORLD
CONCLUDING REMARKS: FUTURE LOOKS DIFFERENT
NOTES
CHAPTER 11 Assessing Economic Policy in an Imperfect Economy
GENERALIZED POLICY MODEL
RULES AND REPUTATION: BEYOND ECONOMIC BENCHMARKS
CONFRONTING OUR THREE MARKET IMPERFECTIONS
ECONOMIC POLICY IN THE CONTEXT OF AN IMPERFECT ECONOMY
NOTES
About the Authors
JOHN E. SILVIA
AZHAR IQBAL
SARAH WATT HOUSE
Index
EULA
List of Tables
Chapter 2
Table 2.1
Table 2.2
Table 2.3
Table 2.4
Table 2.5
Table 2.6
Table 2.7
Table 2.8
Chapter 4
Table 4.1
Chapter 6
Table 6.1
Table 6.2
Table 6.3
Table 6.4
Chapter 7
Table 7.1
Table 7.2
Table 7.3
Chapter 9
Table 9.1
Table 9.2
Table 9.3
Table 9.4
Table 9.5
Table 9.6
Table 9.7
Table 9.8
Table 9.9
Table 9.10
Table 9.11
Chapter 10
Table 10.1
Table 10.2
Table 10.3
Table 10.4
Table 10.5
Table 10.6
Table 10.7
Table 10.8
Table 10.9
Table 10.10
List of Illustrations
Chapter 1
Figure 1.1
Deviation from the Long-Run Trend
Figure 1.2
10-Year Treasury Yields
Figure 1.3
ERM Breakup
Figure 1.4
Swiss Exchange Rate
Figure 1.5
The Beveridge Curve
Figure 1.6
U-6 Unemployment
Figure 1.7
Real GDP Changes—CAGR
Figure 1.8
Gross Domestic Product vs. Income
Figure 1.9
Index of Economic Policy Uncertainty
Chapter 2
Figure 2.1
Fed Funds Rate
Figure 2.2
Unemployment Rate
Figure 2.3
Part-Time Workers for Economic Reasons
Figure 2.4
The Beveridge Curve
Figure 2.5
Labor Market Example
Figure 2.6
S&P 500 Index
Figure 2.7
Consumer Confidence Index
Figure 2.8
Productivity—Total Nonfarm
Figure 2.9
The Labor Market Index
Figure 2.10
M2 Money Supply Growth vs. PCE Inflation
Figure 2.11
Nonfarm Employment Growth
Figure 2.12
Industrial Production
Figure 2.13
Long-Term Unemployment
Figure 2.14
H-P Filter–Based Long-Run Trend of Employment
Figure 2.15
H-P Filter–Based Long-Run Trend of Unemployment Rate
Figure 2.16
H-P Filter–Based Long-Run Trend of Fed Funds Rate
Figure 2.17
H-P Filter–Based Long-Run Trend of Productivity
Figure 2.18
H-P Filter–Based Long-Run Trend of Housing Starts
Figure 2.19
H-P Filter–Based Long-Run Trend of Broad Dollar Index
Figure 2.20
H-P Filter–Based Long-Run Trend of Consumer Confidence
Figure 2.21
H-P Filter–Based Long-Run Trend of Industrial Production
Figure 2.22
Unemployment Rate: 1983–2015
Figure 2.23
Labor Force Participation Rate: 1983–2015
Figure 2.24
Average Hourly Earnings: 1983–2015
Figure 2.25
PCE Deflator: 1983–2015
Figure 2.26
Unemployment Rate: 1983–2015
Figure 2.27
S&P 500: 1983–2015
Figure 2.28
Housing Starts: 1983–2015
Figure 2.29
Industrial Production: 1983–2015
Figure 2.30
PCE Deflator: 1983–2005
Figure 2.31
Unemployment Rate: 1983–2005
Figure 2.32
S&P 500: 1983–2005
Figure 2.33
Housing Starts: 1983–2005
Figure 2.34
Industrial Production: 1983–2005
Figure 2.35
Unemployment Rate: 1983–2005
Figure 2.36
Labor Force Participation Rate: 1983–2005
Figure 2.37
Average Hourly Earnings: 1983–2005
Figure 2.38
PCE Deflator: 1983–2008
Figure 2.39
Unemployment Rate: 1983–2008
Figure 2.40
S&P 500: 1983–2008
Figure 2.41
Housing Starts: 1983–2008
Figure 2.42
Industrial Production: 1983–2008
Figure 2.43
Unemployment Rate: 1983–2008
Figure 2.44
Labor Force Participation Rate: 1983–2008
Figure 2.45
Average Hourly Earnings: 1983–2008
Chapter 3
Figure 3.1
10-Year Yield on June 2, 2014
Figure 3.2
High-Yield Spreads
Figure 3.3
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
Figure 3.4
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet
Figure 3.5
U.S. Consumer Price Index
Figure 3.6
Unemployment Rate
Figure 3.7
The Beveridge Curve
Figure 3.8
Labor Costs
Figure 3.9
S&P 500 Index vs. Nonfarm Payrolls
Figure 3.10
S&P 500 Index vs. Nonfarm Payrolls
Figure 3.11
AR(1) Forecast Variance
Figure 3.12
FHFAHPI/Per Capita Income
Chapter 4
Figure 4.1
New Home Sales and Prices
Figure 4.2
Rise of E-Commerce
Figure 4.3
Oil Futures Contracts
Figure 4.4
Swiss Exchange Rate
Figure 4.5
Thailand Currency and FX Reserves
Figure 4.6
Natural Real Rate of Interest Estimate
Figure 4.7
Existing Home Sales IRF
Figure 4.8
Home Prices IRF
Figure 4.9
Existing Home Inventory IRF
Chapter 5
Figure 5.1
Real GDP and Equipment Investment
Figure 5.2
Potential GDP Revisions
Figure 5.3
Equipment Spending Share Cycles
Figure 5.4
Total Capacity Utilization
Figure 5.5
Current-Cost Average Age of Private Fixed Assets
Figure 5.6
Real Interest Rates
Figure 5.7
High-Yield Spreads
Figure 5.8
Core Capital Goods Orders vs. Equipment Spending
Figure 5.9
Capital Expenditures vs. Internally Generated Funds
Figure 5.10
Index of Economic Polity Uncertainty
Chapter 6
Figure 6.1
Corporate Profits before Taxes and Nominal GDP
Figure 6.2
Nonfinancial Corporate Profits vs. Capacity Utilization
Figure 6.3
GDP Deflator vs. Unit Labor Costs
Figure 6.4
Personal Income Sources
Figure 6.5
Decomposing NFC Ratio
Figure 6.6
Decomposing Corporate Profits
Figure 6.7
CPI vs. Unit Labor Costs
Figure 6.8
Productivity, Compensation Unit Labor Costs: Nonfarm
Figure 6.9
Nonfarm Productivity vs. Corporate Profits
Figure 6.10
Unit Labor Costs vs. Corporate Profits
Figure 6.11
After-Tax Corporate Profits vs. Dividend Income
Figure 6.12
Dividends as a Share of Personal Income
Figure 6.13
After-Tax Corporate Profits vs. S&P 500 Index
Figure 6.14
U.S. Merger-and-Acquisition Volume and S&P 500 Index
Figure 6.15
After-Tax Corp. Profits vs. Bank Loans
Figure 6.16
After-Tax Corporate Profits vs. Baa Corporate Bond Spread
Figure 6.17
Financing Gap
Figure 6.18
After-Tax Corporate Profits vs. Research & Development
Figure 6.19
After-Tax Corporate Profits vs. Business Fixed Investment
Figure 6.20
Corporate Profits Growth Forecasts
Figure 6.21
NFC Ratio Forecasts
Chapter 7
Figure 7.1
Natural Rate of Unemployment
Figure 7.2
Nonfarm Payrolls Trend
Figure 7.3
Unemployment Rate Trend
Figure 7.4
Broad Unemployment
Figure 7.5
Hirings and Separations
Figure 7.6
Quits vs. Layoffs
Figure 7.7
Median Duration of Unemployment
Figure 7.8
Unemployment Rate by Duration
Figure 7.9
The Beveridge Curve
Figure 7.10
Unemployment Rate
Figure 7.11
Part-Time for Economic Reasons
Figure 7.12
U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate
Figure 7.13
Unemployment Rate
Figure 7.14
Involuntary Part-Time Workers
Figure 7.15
Employment by Gender
Figure 7.16
Labor Force Participation Rate
Figure 7.17
Labor Force Participation and Demographic Shifts
Figure 7.18
Labor Force Participation Rate
Figure 7.19
Natural Rate of Unemployment
Figure 7.20
Working-Age Population Growth
Figure 7.21
Trend Employment Level
Figure 7.22
Trend Employment Monthly Change
Chapter 8
Figure 8.1
PCE Deflator
Figure 8.2
PCE Deflator vs. Core PCE Deflator
Figure 8.3
Unemployment and Wage Growth
Figure 8.4
Unemployment Rate and NAIRU
Figure 8.5
Median Inflation Expectations 5 to 10 Years Ahead
Figure 8.6
2016 Core PCE Projections
Figure 8.7
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet
Figure 8.8
U.S. Output Gap
Figure 8.9
Excess Bank Reserves
Figure 8.10
M2 Money Supply Velocity
Figure 8.11
Nonfarm Labor Productivity
Figure 8.12
Personal Income Sources
Figure 8.13
Eurozone Consumer Price Inflation
Figure 8.14
Swiss Consumer Price Index
Figure 8.15
Non-Petroleum Import Prices vs. Dollar
Figure 8.16
Core Goods vs. Core Services CPI
Figure 8.17
World Consumer Price Inflation
Figure 8.18
The Six-Months-Ahead Probability of Price Scenarios in Advanced Economies
Figure 8.19
The Six-Months-Ahead Probability of Price Scenarios in the United States
Figure 8.20
The Six-Months-Ahead Probability of Price Scenarios in the Eurozone
Figure 8.21
The Six-Months-Ahead Probability of Price Scenarios in Japan
Figure 8.22
The Six-Months-Ahead Probability of Price Scenarios in the Global Economy
Chapter 9
Figure 9.1
Appropriate Pace of Policy Firming
Figure 9.2
Net Percentage of Banks Tightening Standards
Figure 9.3
Real 1-Year Treasury Yield
Figure 9.4
10-Year Government Interest Rates
Figure 9.5
Taylor Rule Implied Funds Rate
Figure 9.6
Foreign Private Purchases of U.S. Securities
Figure 9.7
Yield Curve Spread
Figure 9.8
PCE Deflator vs. Core PCE Deflator
Figure 9.9
Real Treasury Yields
Figure 9.10
Tobin’s Q
Figure 9.11
High-Yield Spreads
Figure 9.12
Household Debt Delinquencies
Figure 9.13
Natural Real Rate of Interest Estimate
Figure 9.14
Potential GDP Revisions
Figure 9.15
FOMC Longer-Term Fed Funds Rate Forecast
Figure 9.16
U.S. Treasury Yields
Figure 9.17
Real Treasury Yields
Figure 9.18
Central Bank Holdings of Sovereign Debt
Figure 9.19
Forward Earnings and Corporate Yields
Chapter 10
Figure 10.1
Consumer Confidence Index®
Figure 10.2
Wells Fargo Small Business Survey and NFIB
Figure 10.3
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index vs. Equity Prices
Figure 10.4
Global Equity Prices
Figure 10.5
Foreign Private Purchases of U.S. Securities
Figure 10.6
Foreign Purchases of U.S. Securities
Figure 10.7
Foreign Portfolio Holdings of U.S. Securities
Figure 10.8
U.S. Capital Inflows
Figure 10.9
Japanese Interest Rates and Currency
Figure 10.10
Japanese Money Markets
Figure 10.11
European Currencies
Figure 10.12
Percent of S&P Revenues Earned Abroad
Figure 10.14
Portfolio Investment
Figure 10.15
Exchange Rates
Figure 10.16
Swiss Exchange Rate and LIBOR
Figure 10.17
Three-Month Interbank Offered Rates
Figure 10.18
Three-Month-Ahead Forward Rates
Figure 10.19
Total Capital Inflows into the United States
Figure 10.20
Foreign Direct Investment in the United States
Figure 10.21
H-P Filter–Based Trend of U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield
Figure 10.22
H-P Filter–Based Trend of German 10-Year Bund Yield
Figure 10.23
H-P Filter–Based Trend of Italian 10-Year Government Bond Yield
Figure 10.24
H-P filter–based Trend of U.K. 10-Year Gilt Yield
Chapter 11
Figure 11.1
Unemployment and Wage Rates
Figure 11.2
The Beveridge Curve
Figure 11.3
Potential GDP Revisions
Figure 11.4
Labor Force Participation Rate
Figure 11.5
Nonfarm Labor Productivity
Figure 11.6
Income Growth during Economic Recoveries
Figure 11.7
PCE Deflator vs. Core PCE Deflator
Figure 11.8
Median Inflation Expectations 5 to 10 Years Ahead
Figure 11.9
Alternative Inflation Measures
Figure 11.10
Appropriate Pace of Policy Firming
Figure 11.11
Federal Spending
Figure 11.12
U.S. Top Household Marginal Tax Rate
Figure 11.13
Financial Obligations Ratio Total
Figure 11.14
Nonfinancial Domestic Profits
Figure 11.15
Nonfarm Sector Unit Labor Costs
Figure 11.16
Global Trade Indicators
Figure 11.17
PCE Deflator vs. Core PCE Deflator
Figure 11.18
Core Goods vs. Core Services CPI
Figure 11.19
Nominal Effective Exchange Rates
Figure 11.20
Commodity Research Bureau Index
Figure 11.21
Three-Month Interbank Offered Rates
Figure 11.22
S&P European Banks Select 15 CDS Index
Figure 11.23
High-Yield Spreads
Guide
Cover
Table of Contents
Preface
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