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PART 1: Dealing with Complexity
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PART 1: Dealing with Complexity
by Pierre Massotte, Patrick Corsi
Complex Decision-Making in Economy and Finance
Cover
Introduction: New Beginnings
I.1. A present-day situation
I.2. A basic awareness: the governance of a system
I.3. What lies ahead of us?
I.4. Guidelines and ways forward
PART 1: Dealing with Complexity
1 Engineering Complexity within Present-Day Industrial Systems
1.1. Introduction
1.2. Basic properties of complex industrial systems
1.3. The complexity of systems
1.4. Analysis of some industrial dynamic systems
1.5. Applications of new concepts in industrial systems
2 Designing Complex Products and Services
2.1. Complex systems engineering: the basics
2.2. The implementation conditions for self-organization
2.3. Advantages and benefits of a complexity approach
3 Engineering and Complexity Theory: A Field Design Approach
3.1. Design approach for a complex system
3.2. Applications and solutions
3.3. Application: organization and management in companies
3.4. Main conclusions related to the first three chapters
4 Organizational Constraints and Complexity Theory: Modeling with Agents
4.1. A preamble to modeling
4.2. Introducing collective intelligence
4.3. Studying the agent concept
4.4. Applications using agents
4.5. Conclusion: information related to the use and usage of modeling
5 Complexity and the Theory of Organizations: Implementation of Collective Intelligence
5.1. Introducing the notion of collective intelligence
5.2. Definition of a multi-agent system
5.3. Behavioral and interaction strategies between agents
5.4. Concluding comments
6 Complexity and the Theory of Organizations: The Notion of Collective Patterns
6.1. The emergence of collective patterns
6.2. System complexity factors and their measurement
6.3. Conclusion: towards the notion of “complex adaptive systems” (CAS)
7 Complexity and Theory of Organizations: Structure and Architecture of an Enterprise
7.1. Notions of structure in organizations
7.2. Structure of distributed complex systems
7.3. Conclusion
8 Complexity and the Theory of Organizations: Applications
8.1. Applications: trends and models
8.2. Application and implementation of concepts in the “Fractal Factory”
9 Complexity and the Theory of Organizations: Complex Systems Reengineering
9.1. The reengineering of complex systems
9.2. Comments on the technologies used
9.3. Theory of constraints and complexity management
9.4. Measurement of the complexity of a new organization
9.5. Concluding remark
10 Evaluating and Measuring Complexity: The CINSYS Methodology
10.1. A brief overview of the CINSYS system
10.2. What can be found in a CINSYS model?
10.3. Functional analysis of the method: interpretation by the CINSYS symbolic and structural diagram
10.4. Illustration of the method
10.5. What are the advantages of using the method?
10.6. “The network metaphor” as the general application context of the method
10.7. Perspectives beyond the CINSYS method
10.8. Conclusion
PART 2: Dealing with Risk in Complex Environments
11 Underlying Mechanisms in Finance
11.1. Introduction to finance theory and its evolution
11.2. What are the best candidates for the so-called econophysics?
11.3. Action plans in financial regulation and bank regulation: are they ok?
11.4. Back to physics and matter: their contribution
11.5. From matter up to living beings: how can big events be generated?
11.6. The evolution of an economic system – the problem of CRISIS
11.7. Role of complexity and diversity in Nature
11.8. Application: how should we proceed when faced with crises and financial crashes/crises?
11.9. Crisis as the end of an evolution
11.10. Collapse theory and modeling – a theory of the “end”
11.11. Design of financial products: the example of world interconnections
11.12. Conclusion
12 Physics and Social Networks: Domain Similarities
12.1. Introducing a similarity of domains
12.2. On the principle of emergence
12.3. Finance, economics and physics: the quantification of emergence
12.4. About Gödel theorems
12.5. Conclusion
13 Managing Behavioral Risks: Uncertainty and Catastrophes
13.1. Introduction
13.2. Implications for intellectual approaches
13.3. The uncertainties
14 On Managing Risk in the Energy Domain: Conventional Problems Encountered
14.1. From a new oil crisis (peak oil) and the resulting energy crisis
14.2. The future: limit of price increases? Implications of the shortage
14.3. Modeling the problem correctly
14.4. Crisis or heuristic tactics? Large-scale oil shock?
14.5. A few conclusive remarks
15 On Managing Risk in the Financial Domain
15.1. Taking about disasters – from risks to catastrophes in finance
15.2. An interesting approach: financial analysis of losses
15.3. When the drama occurs
15.4. How to conduct a risk consequence analysis process?
15.5. Conservatory measures: risk and diversification
15.6. An additional risk: the decline and inversion rate at the stock exchange
15.7. Concluding with additional risks of the shared economy
16 Why Current Tools Are Inadequate
16.1. On the shortcomings of current tools: risk and probability
16.2. A thematic illustration
16.3. What regularities?
16.4. Characteristics of rational expectations in economics
16.5. Risk characteristics in the industry
16.6. A philosophical summary: chance and necessity
16.7. The environment’s new challenge
17 How to Manage Crises?
17.1. The fundamental principles of crisis management
17.2. Early warning risk signals and the basics of risk management
17.3. Five fundamental elements that describe a company
17.4. About stakeholders
18 Managing Crises in Finance and Other Domains
18.1. Reorienting company aims
18.2. Interactions: towards a crisis model?
19 Technological, Monetary and Financial Crashes
19.1. Yet another view to complexity
19.2. The reference financial systems are continuously changing
19.3. Conclusive discussion
Conclusion: Different Types of Crises
C.1. The crises mesh
C.2. Changing economic and industrial cultures
List of Abbreviations
References
Index
End User License Agreement
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Introduction: New Beginnings
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1 Engineering Complexity within Present-Day Industrial Systems
PART 1
Dealing with Complexity
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