Index

Acceptance testing, 63, 124, 132

Accountability, 147, 153, 154, 159

for cost, 149, 155

of stakeholders, 156

Austin, Rob, 154

Automated Baggage Handling System (ABHS), 22-23, 25-28, 70, 184

Benefit, 63, 64, 109, 146ff., 151, 152-53, 154, 161, 162

calculation, 149

expected, 149, 152, 153

quantification, 147, 148

realization, 146, 148, 154

risk and, 9, 63, 137, 160

Boehm, Barry W., 119, 150, 158, 190

Brainstorming, 18, 116

Budget, 5, 135, 147, 155, 165

constraints, 159

reserve, 69, 70-71

time, 102, 147

Can-do, 13, 16, 31, 40, 61-62, 114-26, 171

Can’t-do, 13, 31, 115

Capability Maturity Model (CMM), 15, 23

Catastrophe, 115, 118

brainstorming, 116

list, 45

Causal risks, 16, 86, 87, 172

Charette, Robert, 12, 183, 184, 185

Client, 30, 33, 39, 43-44, 65, 84, 138, 156

Clifford, William Kingdon, 3-6, 17, 64, 175ff.

Closure metrics, 122, 135, 137, 166, 173

Commit date, 75

Communication breakdown, 114

Conflict, 24, 108, 109, 119, 120, 123, 129

Contingency actions, 74, 165, 173

Contingency planning, 20, 71, 74, 167, 173

Core risks, 91, 100, 101-11, 112, 113, 122, 127, 164, 165, 172

combined effect of, 111

Cost:

avoided, 154-55

benefit analysis, 130, 143, 145, 146, 149

expected, 149

reduction, 22, 64, 154

specification, 147

value trade-off, 80

Critical path, 25, 27, 65

Culture, corporate, 21, 29, 35, 40, 42, 76, 113, 114, 117, 171, 172

Cumulative risk diagram, 90, 96, 152

Dataflows, 109-10, 123, 124, 126, 166

Davis, Christine, 154, 155

Deadlines, 5, 48, 53, 56, 57, 77-78

Death-march projects, 160-61

Delivery date, 27, 29, 30, 31, 39, 40, 42, 53ff., 69, 76, 83, 86, 90, 100, 129, 130, 140, 153, 165, 167

buffered, 69

most likely, 53

optimistic, 71, 74

realistic, 71

Denver International Airport (DIA), 22-23, 24-28, 29, 33, 50, 70, 184

Design, 108, 123, 128, 157

blueprint, 132-33, 134, 135

partitioning, 135, 166

Diseconomies of scale, 158

Disincentives, 114-15, 171

Doubt, 5, 42, 151, 175, 177

Early delivery, 76, 158

Early-start option, 138, 140, 141

Earned value running (EVR), 122, 124-27, 129, 135ff., 166, 167

Economies of scale, 158

Efficiency, 12, 129

Effort, 4, 6, 24, 27, 28, 33, 42, 47, 53, 59, 68, 81, 104, 105, 116, 135, 136, 149, 158ff., 166, 173

Elemental requirement components, 134, 166

Estimates, 39, 57-58, 60, 69, 87, 88, 90, 91, 103-4, 109, 124, 141, 156, 164, 166, 172

of schedule, 73, 74, 102

Estimation process, 106

Expectations, 31, 40, 61, 66, 69, 76, 101, 110, 111, 149, 151, 152, 161, 163, 171

Exposure, 66-67, 68, 69, 73, 165, 173

analysis, 20, 27

assessing, 67

Failure, 16, 25, 28, 30, 31, 32, 33, 41, 42, 45, 61, 63, 66, 86, 109, 113, 130, 154, 166

accidental, 5, 176

blame and, 117

partial, 118

False positives, 71, 72, 171

Fear, 12, 32, 115-16, 117

Functionality, 77, 100, 109, 126, 146, 154, 157, 159

Gilb, Tom, 132, 187

Glide path, 137, 167

Goals, 24, 32, 39, 40, 75, 76, 172

Implementers, 129

Incremental delivery, 128, 129, 132ff., 166

Incremental implementation, 77, 78, 131

Incrementalism, 78, 124, 128, 129, 130, 131, 137, 156, 173, 187

benefits of, 128-29, 130, 137

constraints on, 135

mitigation and, 128

overlap of tasks, 135

proactive, 130

reactive, 129-30

value/cost analysis of, 157

value projections and, 159

version plans and, 124

Incremental risk diagram, 90, 96, 152

Innovation, 24

Jackson, Sean, 154

Keen, Peter G.W., 109, 183

Lateness, 25-27, 30, 42, 48, 76, 130, 140

Luck, 4, 46, 47-48, 64, 121

Lying, 38, 40

Management, 24, 27, 34, 39, 44, 104, 117, 129, 145, 149, 171

gutless, 140

malpractice, 17

by objectives, 37

reckless, 34

styles, 37

for success, 26, 35, 39

upper, 26, 28, 172

Managers, 37, 38, 40, 56ff., 60, 61, 63, 65, 76, 79, 102, 104, 130, 131, 140, 141, 147, 153ff., 171

upper, 63, 70, 103

Market window, 148, 153

Maturity, 15-16, 23, 38, 58

McMenamin, Steve, 148, 155

Mean-time-to-failure, 80

Methods, 23

Metrics, 119, 122, 124, 160

closure, 122, 135, 137, 166, 173

Monte Carlo:

sampling, 96, 99

simulator, 98, 99

tools, 153

Motivation, 137

Myopia, selective, 43, 44

Nano-percent (N):

date, 57-59, 74, 88, 165

functionality, 77

performance level, 172

scheduling, 74-75

Negative thinking, 31, 114

Net present value (NPV), 145, 163

Noise, 59, 110

Opportunity, 10, 14, 30, 33, 104, 111

cost, 149

Overcommitment, 79

Oversizing, 102

Overstaffing, 18

Parametric estimator, 87, 91, 165

Parkinsonian scheduling, 37

Piling on, 109, 130

Planning, 15, 19, 39, 48, 64, 72, 82, 101, 105, 121

for risk, 15, 16

Politics, 24, 40, 59, 79, 138, 156

Postmortems, 61-62, 122, 149, 188

Probability analysis, 118

Probability of delivery, 54, 57, 77, 78, 90

Production, 86, 88, 91, 137

Prognosticator, 87

Project:

assumptions, 67, 68, 74, 152, 165

benefits, 143, 146-47

cancellation, 43, 44, 45, 65, 67, 108, 109, 110, 112, 124, 129, 131

fixed-deadline, 77-78

high-value, 149

justification, 161-62

low-value, 149, 161

management, 5, 15, 68, 80, 108

managers, 16, 30, 32, 40, 49, 53, 59, 61, 79, 102, 104, 129, 132, 152

parameters, 111, 165

plan, 16, 48, 60, 69, 70, 74, 101, 102, 129, 165, 173

relative size of, 173

risk, viii, 30, 31

review, 116

team, 27, 68, 110

visibility, 137

Promises, 30, 39, 61, 154, 155

Pseudo delivery, 173

Rank-order prioritization, 129, 130, 131, 159, 166

Requirements, 18, 24, 95, 101, 105, 106, 119, 134, 146, 150, 166

inflation, 102, 104-6

setting, 108

time and, 105, 106

Resizing, 104

Responsibility, 19, 20, 21, 67, 68, 114, 177

for measurement, 156

for risk, 33, 152

for risk management, 28, 29, 65, 171

transfers of, 33, 66

for value-projection, 156

Return on investment, 145

Risk, v, vii, 7, 11ff., 16ff., 24, 26ff., 31ff., 39-40, 43ff., 51, 58, 59, 61, 63ff., 73, 74, 77, 79ff., 113ff., 118ff., 124, 127ff., 137, 138, 140, 143, 147, 149, 152, 153, 160ff., 172, 173

analysis, 20, 29

assessment, viii, 41, 83, 91, 114, 181

aversion to, 30, 32, 33, 147

awareness of, 13, 60, 130

balancing opportunity and, 14

benefits and, 9

census, 19, 67, 73, 79, 164, 172

containment, viii, 31, 63, 64, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 137, 139

evasion, 63, 64, 77

expiration, 63, 74, 167

identifying, 43, 45, 66, 113, 115, 117, 181

ignoring, 13, 17, 28, 46-47, 79

indicators, 80, 87

list, 30, 40, 43, 44, 45, 46, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 68, 79, 122

minimizing, 31

minor, 13, 58

officer, 20

problems and, 17, 44-45, 61, 65

profile, 86

on project, viii, 30, 31

quantifying, 67, 91, 113

repository, 67, 122, 181

reserve, 32, 51, 64, 67, 68-69

running away from, v, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14

running toward, 9, 11, 14

simulators, 100

tracking, 20, 43, 51

transition, 17-18, 19, 47, 64, 74, 165, 167

triage, 20

unmanaged, 7, 14, 47

unthinkable, 21

Risk diagrams, 55-57, 58-59, 74ff., 80, 82ff., 93, 95, 96, 98, 100, 103, 104, 147, 151ff., 162ff., 172, 173

shapes of, 85-86

Risk-discovery process, 20, 45, 51, 62, 73, 74, 79, 113, 115, 116, 119, 120, 164, 167, 172

brainstorm, 19, 27

meeting, 116

WinWin approach to, 119-20

Risk management, vii, viii, 6, 13-14, 15ff., 24, 27, 28, 29ff., 37-40, 42, 44-45, 46, 48, 50, 51, 61, 62, 64, 65-66, 67, 68, 73, 79, 80, 81, 100, 102, 112, 113, 119, 121, 147, 149, 164, 169, 171, 172, 173

activities, 20, 121

case against, 37-41

cost of not performing, 29

downside of, 35, 37

dynamics, 121ff.

as focusing mechanism, 34

justification for, 17

mechanics of, 60ff.

opposition to, 38

philosophy of, 14

prescription for, 73-74, 164-67

problems of, 14

test for, 171-73

tools, viii, 40, 91

Risk manager, vii, 17, 99, 129, 172

would-be, 42

Risk materialization, 17, 18, 20, 33, 39, 47, 63, 64, 67, 69, 74, 77, 128, 137, 164, 167, 173

indications of, 71, 73

probability, 20, 46, 66, 69, 73, 165

schedule impact of, 73, 164

Risk mitigation, viii, 18, 19, 20, 27, 32, 43, 47, 63, 70, 82, 128, 138, 140, 165, 173

actions, 74, 165, 173

cost of, 16, 64, 67, 69-71, 73, 128, 164

mode, 138

plan, 71, 173

Risk model, 87, 88, 91, 92

customization of, 91, 92

Risk-taking, vii, viii, 10, 12, 14, 38, 58, 140

aggressive, 29, 149

necessity of, 13

philosophy of, 160

rewarding, 12

RISKOLOGY, viii, 91, 99, 100, 101, 106, 107, 109, 111, 119, 162, 165

Rook, Paul, v, 31n., 60

Root cause analysis, 118-19, 189

Sampling tool, 95, 98

Scenario-building, 118

Schedule, 6, 13, 21, 25ff., 31ff., 48, 50, 57, 60, 71, 74, 78, 88, 101ff., 130, 141, 149

estimating, 74, 102, 165

expected, 149

flaw, 102-4

gaming of, 76

overrun, 104

reserve, 69, 70-71

slip, 21

uncertainty about, 76

Sensitivity analysis, 149, 156-57

Showstoppers, 67-68, 74, 165

Silves, Mike, 147

Software:

development, 53, 91, 119

engineering, 23, 150

industry, 23, 38, 56, 59, 101, 103, 104, 140, 145, 160, 173

managers, 38, 139, 149, 158

Software Engineering Institute (SEI), 186

Specification, 43, 53, 108, 109, 123, 134, 157

breakdown, 102, 108-10, 147, 166

closure, 109

Spiral development life cycle, 119

Stakeholders, 22, 31, 38, 53, 75-78, 79, 84, 105, 108, 109, 118, 119, 123, 124, 130, 131, 141, 147ff., 153ff., 165, 173

assumptions of, 152

Status meetings, 43, 63

Stretch goal, 31, 48, 75

Success, 14, 24, 26, 31, 35, 39, 48, 79, 86, 119, 154, 158, 175

System, 11, 13, 24, 38, 43-44, 114, 123ff., 129, 141, 145ff., 150ff., 157, 159

construction, 124

projects, 156, 158

value, 149, 151

Testosterone-based decision making, 154

Theory W, 119

Tools, customizing, 43, 91, 92, 99, 165

Transformation rules, 123

Transition indicators, 17-18, 19, 20, 71, 72, 73, 122, 164, 173

Trucker’s maxim, 71

Turnover, 18, 24, 102, 106-8

Uncertainty, 6, 23-24, 29ff., 38-39, 40, 42, 53-54, 56ff., 74ff., 82ff., 91ff., 98, 100, 147, 149, 162, 165, 172

admitting, 42

analysis of, 31, 87

bounded, 32, 57

confronting, 38

curve, 59

diagram, 55, 58, 77, 82, 84, 86, 88, 89, 90, 93, 95, 96, 98, 103, 151, 152, 162, 163, 172, 173

effect of, 92

fear of expressing, 171

functional, 76

overlayer, 87

pattern, 95

quantifying, 40, 53, 56

schedule, 76

trade-off, 76

Under-performance, 110

Unknowns, 51, 81, 82, 93

Unwritten rules, 114, 115, 116, 117

Urgency assessment, 72

Users, 64, 77, 80, 113, 117, 129, 131, 137, 156, 159

involvement of, 137

Value, 40, 55, 65, 70, 82, 96, 98, 114, 122, 130, 131, 136, 137, 143, 145, 149, 150, 151-55, 156ff., 166, 172, 173

assessment, 143, 154, 155, 158, 166, 173

cost, ratio to, 157, 158, 159

distribution, 157

expected, 151, 161

prediction, 151, 153, 156, 159

quantification, 145

rank-ordering of, 173

software engineering, 150

Version acceptance test (VAT), 127, 132, 134, 135, 136, 137, 167

Version plan, 124, 158, 173

Versions, 77, 86, 125ff., 130ff., 140, 158, 166, 167, 173

Voice-of-the-product metric, 137

Win conditions, 119, 120

Windows of uncertainty, 29, 30, 39, 58-59, 110

WinWin Spiral Process Model, 119, 190

Work breakdown structure (WBS), 132, 133, 135, 136, 166, 173