The fact that social networking is one of the big trends of the past few years is a given. It’s a phenomenon that has affected not just technology, but also business, entertainment, and humanity in general. But what about the future?
Industry analysts rarely agree on everything, but one thing is clear: Social networking is predicted to continue its growth trend, reaching out to a wider, more diverse population that spans multiple age groups, ethnicities, and geographic locations.
Beyond more universal adoption, where is social networking headed? Without the proverbial crystal ball, it’s hard to paint a precise picture of how social networking will fit into the world of the web and daily digital life in the distant future. Will today’s top sites still remain at the top of the list in ten years? Possibly, but not probably. Will many niche sites come and go? Definitely. Will the world of social networking look different than is does today? Another definite yes.
Although it’s hard to predict with exact certainty what the world of social networking will look like in five years, let alone ten years, one thing is certain: The type of social interaction and community that social networking sites provide is something that humans crave based on our nature, and it’s not something that’s going away. Favored sites may come and go, consolidation may occur, and someone will undoubtedly come up with the next “big idea” of the collaborative web, but collaboration is here to stay.
Niche sites are becoming increasingly popular and will continue to do so. People like to spend time with people who think like they do. They like to view content that’s relevant to their world. They even like to learn about new products and services that target their interests and lifestyle. As a result, social networking sites for every possible segment of society have launched over the past few years with no end in site. Sites for moms, soccer fans, wine lovers, the eco-conscious, nurses, gamers, fashionistas, dog owners, design divas, and more are now up and running, with more in the development stage.
The key to the success of niche sites, however, will be their ability to connect with their audience in a way that creates a genuine community. An established, engaging community combined with a viable business model is the recipe for a niche social networking site that generates buzz, staying power, and profits.
Social network advertising is a billion dollar business, with predicted expenditures at $2.2 billion for 2008 alone.[1] Social network advertising is clearly on a growth trend, but the advertising must be relevant to pay off. Look for advertising to shift from reliance on traditional display advertising to a model that combines tradition with innovation. Sponsorships, branded content, contests, and more will create a whole new dynamic to online advertising. Also look for new advertising paradigms to evolve over the next few years as creative marketers start to tap the potential of this new advertising medium.
The opening of the social web was big news throughout 2007 and into early 2008, with numerous announcements about enabling social networking and other sites to exchange data with each other. Facebook announced its Facebook Platform, a development environment enabling participating companies such as Amazon, Newsweek, Twitter, Digg, and others to develop applications that interface directly with Facebook and its user data. Then, Google announced its OpenSocial platform, supported by industry leaders such as MySpace, Friendster, LinkedIn, Ning, Plaxo, Video, XING, and others.
Although Facebook is the one major player not part of OpenSocial, it joined with Google in supporting the DataPortability Workgroup, another group focusing on the common goal of sharing data across the social web. These announcements are just the beginning, however. The next few years should show the results of these new standards and partnerships and the benefits they offer the average social networker. What does this mean for the future of social networking? For one, profiles and widgets will become more portable. You won’t have to enter profile data and upload images on each site you join. You’ll have the control to say when and how you share and reuse your data. And that’s just the beginning.
This doesn’t sound like a positive sign, but it is. And there’s a good reason why. As with any new technology or trend, adoption of social networking will eventually reach a plateau. For example, the number of people who own computers or have access to the Internet in the United States won’t likely increase by huge numbers in the next few years, because the market is already near saturation. Double-digit or triple-digit growth happens at the beginning of a new trend, not at the end. Social networking is rapidly expanding from its initial early adopters to society as a whole. All ages, sexes, ethnicities, and nationalities are now part of the social web. The expansion will continue over the next few years until it reaches a point at which exponential growth will no longer be possible.
This means that social networking will finally reach the masses. Its audience will be even larger than it is today, its adoption will be widespread, and all the opportunities that this vast audience provides today will be even greater.