chapter
5
An equitable solution
Who predicted futurology?
I nished my nal year at uni and returned to Jerry the day after.
Saiwai was doing well, and my salary was three times what my
classmates were getting. The job was fun and Jerry continued to
share his hard-won knowledge with me.
‘An investor’, Jerry told me, ‘buys shares for two types of return.
There’s the capital gain and there’s the dividend payments. Now
imagine the situation: you’ve got a protable company which
can either pay you a dividend or can keep the money. Investors
who prefer the cash now are called value investors. They want a
steady ow of dividends.
‘The other group of investors have a different perspective. We call
them growth investors. A growth stock is an investment which
offers superior return potential compared to other shares in the
market.
‘Often growth companies have an innovative new product or
something unique that the company offers. But growth can also
come from other areas.
‘If people get married later than in previous generations, the
demand for small ats and single-serving ready-made meals will
grow. This is an example of demographic change.
‘Sometimes growth comes because of regulation. If you’re in a
country where smoking is banned overnight, then the sale of
smoking patches or nicotine gum will automatically increase. It’s
the gifted analyst who sees that the law change will also lead to
Welcome to the jungle62
a growth in peanuts being sold because people who are drinking
and can’t smoke need something to do with their hands.
‘Occasionally you get a completely new
market, something you’ve never really
thought of before. Recent health scares
have led people to go for higher quality
cuts of meat, so suddenly there’s a demand
for organically reared meat. If you want to
make money from growth stocks, it’s always
important to see the big trend.
‘That’s why we employ futurologists, who are people who are
employed to predict changes. A futurologist thinks like this. The
government announces a cut in the budget for school meals.
Children will therefore eat poorer quality meals and develop
a taste for cheaper food laden with salt, sugar and chemical
preservatives. Twenty years down the line many of these
children will develop type 2 diabetes. The gifted futurologist
looks for sectors that will benet from this change: pharmaceu-
ticals, healthcare, hospital construction, insulin production.’
I learned more about Jonathan Spurrier from the Saiwai rumour
mill. Some said he was the son of one of Saiwai’s top clients.
Others hinted that he was related to the royal family. Despite an
expensive education at several second-division public schools,
together with two stints at A-level crammer colleges, Spurrier
seemed to have failed every exam since his cycling prociency.
In a rare moment of self-analysis, he told me that he didn’t want
to go to university anyway, since he was now older than many
of the lecturers.
He had wonderful clothes and impeccable brogues. But he
probably had help putting them on.
One thing was certain. Jerry Witts hated everything about
Jonathan. Later – much later – I was to discover why.
‘‘
If you want
to make money
from growth
stocks, it’s always
important to see
the big trend
’’
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