A

accountability 163, 179, 185–186, 215

acknowledgement 62–63

adaptability 37

adversity, overview see challenges, overview

agile project management 73–77

see also planning horizons, shortening of

aircraft bombing case study 60

aleatory uncertainty 7–8, 8, 14, 18, 35

see also risk management; risks

alertness 63–64, 65, 108, 134

amnesia 92–93, 98, 114

analytic processes 48

anchoring 91–92

Apple case study 217–218

approach uncertainty 9, 10

archetypes, of resilience

mindful project management 45–51, 226–234, 228

rule-based project management 43–45, 46–48, 226–230, 228

see also Fall of France (1940) case study

Artistotle 86

Association for Project Management (APM) 6, 46

assumptions 47, 55, 75, 111, 210–211

asymmetric insight 68–69

attributional bias 112

Auftragstaktik (mission-oriented leadership) 33–34

authority bias 177–178

automating responses 129, 229

automation bias 129–130, 166

autonomy 74–75

autopilot 128–129

availability heuristic 112

Aviva 24–25, 242–243

establishing long-term commitment 148–150

project management software 107

risk interdependencies 96–97

scrum meetings 76–77

trust and credibility 152

B

bandwagon effect 127–128

barriers, between silos 143–144

bataille conduite (methodical battle) 33–34

behaviour vs. plan management 207

behaviour-based expectations (BBEs) 174

Bell Boeing V-22 Osprey case study 186–188

belonging, sense of 184–185

Bernstein, P. 14

biased samples 60

biased selections 59–60

big picture thinking 95, 108–110, 109, 134, 169, 182–183, 183

blame, avoiding 70

brainstorming 102

Brandenburg Willy Grant Airport (BER) 3

British Petroleum (BP) 117–118

Brown, Eric 56

C

celebrating victory 216

centralising power 194–195, 205–206

certainty 72–73, 116, 126, 235

challenges, overview

complexity 11–12, 11

uncertainty 7–10, 8 , 14, 18–19

see also aleatory uncertainty; epistemic uncertainty

Checkland, Peter 236

checklists 197, 207

chief financial officers (CFOs) 87

chronological snobbery 58

Churchill, Winston 30

clarity 212

close-mindedness 69

cognitive biases 20–21, 22, 47

anchoring 91–92

authority bias 177–178

automation bias 129–130

bandwagon effect 127–128

confirmation bias 164–165

false consensus effect 111–113

hindsight bias 57–58, 195–196

illusion of control 160–161

just-world hypothesis 203–204

negativity bias 216–217

observational selection bias 59–60

optimism bias 85–89

ostrich effect (normalcy bias) 55–56, 193–194

planning fallacy 125–126

restraint bias 205

self-serving bias 112, 146–147

Semmelweis reflex 113

shared information bias 70–72

status quo bias 94, 163–164

cognitive maps 96–97, 97

collaboration 74–75, 76, 215–216

collective information sampling bias 70–72

commitment 148–150, 168, 184

to containment 186, 187–188

non-commitment 166

status quo bias 164

trust and respect 151

communication

broken 194

during crises 206–207

of estimates 116

project management software 108

complacency 56–57, 66–67

complexity, overview 11–12, 11

compliance 163, 172

confirmation bias 164–165

conformity 94

consensus heuristics 128

consistency, in relationships 78

contagion effect 127–128

containing, art of

Bell Boeing V-22 Osprey case study 186–188

impact on relationships 183–186

key enablers 167–173

leadership approach 173–183

lure of control 159–167

moving towards 188–189

continuity planning 197

contract forms 215

contributions, of stakeholders 184

control

effective 126–127

illusion of 160–161, 204

lure of 159–167

costs, life-cycle 102

creeping determinism 57–58

crises

dynamics of 11

learning from 208–209

management plans 207

simulations 197–198

see also recovering, art of

critical drivers 237–238, 237, 238

critical uncertainties 238, 239

cross-functional teams 64–65

see also tiger teams

D

decision-making

automated tools 129–130

centralised 40

and cognitive biases 57–58, 87, 163, 165

dialectics 95–96, 106

drivers of 144

escalations 162–163

and expertise 176–177

rule-based and mindfulness-based balance 226–227

unshared information 71

Deepwater Horizon case study 117–118

defensive retreats 193, 205, 206

devil’s advocacy 95–96, 110, 115

dialectics 95–96, 106

discomfort 151

Dyle Breda plan 32

dynamic uncertainty 9, 10

E

Eastman, George 79

efficiency 133

egocentric bias 112

empowerment 132–135, 132, 141–143, 163, 188, 210

endowment effect 94

engagement 50

entrepreneurial mode 228, 230–231

epistemic uncertainty 7–8, 8, 19, 51

acknowledgement 62–63, 118

and art of noticing 79–80

and entrepreneurial mode 230–231

Fall of France (1940) case study 35

habitual responses 161–162

improvisation 170

leadership 66, 67

management training 140–141

preparing for 126, 154

probability and impact 90

reward and incentive process 146

social cohesion 185

stakeholders’ alertness to 78, 114

structural oversimplification 86

errors, dealing with 180–181

escalation 132–133, 150, 162–163, 229

estimates, committing to 90–91, 114–115

executive mentality 142

expected utility theory (EUT) 13–14

expertise 142, 168–169, 176–177, 178–179, 210–211

F

failed projects see project failure

Fall Gelb (Operation Yellow) 30, 36

Fall of France (1940) case study

adaptability 37

bataille conduite vs. Auftragstaktik 33–34

context 29–34, 31

and modes of project management 34–37, 43–45

sense of time 38–40

task-orientation 41–43

team performance 40–41

false consensus effect 111–113

familiarity 58

feedback 142

flexibility 50–51

and empowerment 142

and iterations 74–75, 76

in project goals 138, 141, 151

and routine 136–138, 137

Flint water crisis 3

focalism 91–92

foreseeability 58

freedom

to act 143, 166, 173

with fences 136–138, 137 , 142

to think 173

Friendly Fire 49

functional analysis systems technique (FAST) 102

G

gains perception 93

games 135–136, 144–145

Gantt, Henry 5

Gantt charts 5, 140

Gates, Bill 217

goal flexibility 138, 141, 151

goal uncertainty 9, 10

good practice 21

group dynamics 72

groupthink 72, 128

Guderian, Heinz 41

H

habitual responses 161–162

half-life, of uncertainty 114

Harley-Davidson 136

hierarchical escalation see escalation

hindsight bias 57–58, 195–196

Hitler, Adolf 30, 32, 44

Holmes, Elizabeth 88

human cognition 46–47, 243

see also cognitive biases

Human Contribution, The 49

hyperbolic discounting 61–62, 214

I

imagination 67–68

improvisation 169–173, 174–175, 184, 188

incentives 145–146, 148

incredulity response see normalcy bias

inertia 163–164

inevitability 58

information access software 107–108

infusion 228, 231–232

inhibiting 117–118

instant gratification 61–62, 214

Intel Corporation 25–26, 242–243

iterations 73–75

maintaining and retaining knowledge 99–100

tiger teams 199–200

intelligent tools 65

interpreting, art of

Deepwater Horizon case study 117–118

impact on relationships 114–117

key enablers 95–102

leadership approach 102–114

lure of simplicity 85–94

moving towards 118–120

interventions 206, 239

invulnerability, illusion of 85–89

isolation 165–166, 182

iterations 73–77, 138, 141

J

Jobs, Steve 217–218

Joint Advanced Vertical Lift Aircraft (JVX) 186–187

just culture 179–182, 180, 185–186

just-in-time mindfulness 228, 232–233

just-world hypothesis 203–204

K

Kahneman, D. 125

knowledge management 99–101

knowledge-sharing 98–99

Kodak case study 79–80

L

Langer, Ellen 47, 50

law of triviality 209–210

leadership 21

and art of containing 173–183

and art of interpreting 102–114

and art of noticing 66–72

and art of preparing 139–147

and art of recovering 202–211

mission-oriented (Auftragstaktik) 33–34

lean production techniques 128

life-cycle costing 102

listening 151–152, 212–213

logical fallacy 20

logistical independence 201–202

long-term commitment 148–150

long-term relationships 213–214

loss aversion 93–94, 106, 164

loss perception 93

M

Managing the Unexpected 48

Manstein plan 30

measurability bias 59

memory 58, 98–99, 107, 114

Milgram experiment 177

mind maps 96–97, 97

mindful project management, overview 45–51, 226–234, 228

see also Fall of France (1940) case study

Mindfulness 50

mission-oriented leadership (Auftragstaktik) 33–34

mistakes, dealing with 180–181

Moore, Gordon 25

Mount Vesuvius 55

Munir, K. 80

myopia 61, 213

N

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) 153–154

negative connotations 59, 69

negativity bias 216–217

no-blame culture 181

noise 106

non-commitment 166

Normal Accidents 49

normalcy bias see ostrich effect (normalcy bias)

normality 54–56

noticing, art of

impact on relationships 72–79

key enablers 62–65

Kodak case study 79–80

leadership approach 66–72

lure of normality 54–62

moving towards 80–81

noticing radar 77–78

novelty producing 50

novelty seeking 50

Noyce, Robert 25

O

obedience bias 177–178

observational selection bias 59–60

onus of proof 67

optimism 110

optimism bias 86–89, 91, 102–103, 127, 204

organisational identification 184–185

organisational resilience see resilience, overview

ostrich effect (normalcy bias) 55–56, 193–194

overanalysing 94

over-estimation 57–58, 111, 119

ownership, of crises 213, 230

P

PA Consulting Group 23

Panarchy model 15–17

Parkinson, Cyril Northcote 209

Parkinson’s Law 209

partnering contracts 215

past-informed habits 195

peer reviews 210–211

Perrow, Charles 49

perspectives, multiple 111, 116–117

pessimism 204

planning, art of see preparing, art of

planning fallacy 125–126

planning fixation 125

planning horizons, shortening of 73–77, 151

Pollyanna principle 165

Pompeii 55

power 160, 194–195

Practical Drift theory 49

premortems 240

preparing, art of

impact on relationships 147–153

key enablers 131–138

leadership approach 139–147

lure of the fail-safe 124–131

moving towards 154–156

Space Shuttle Columbia case study 153–154

PRINCE2 5

probability theory 13, 89–90

problem statements 236–237

program evaluation and review technique (PERT) 5

project failure 2–4, 6–7

Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK) Guide 5, 45–46

Project Management Institute (PMI) 5, 45, 46

project management, overview 4

brief history 5–6

success and failure 2–4, 6–7

project management software 107–108

project success 6–7

provocative competence 175

R

reactance 143

readiness 173–174

realism 89

Reason, James 49

recovering, art of

Apple case study 217–218

impact on relationships 212–217

key enablers 196–202

leadership approach 202–211

lure of a great escape 192–196

as mindfulness-based approach 228 , 233–234

moving towards 218–220

reflection 166, 175–176, 208–209

rehearsals 135–136

relational uncertainty 9, 10

relationships

impact of containing 183–186

impact of interpreting 114–117

impact of noticing 72–79

impact of preparing 147–153

impact of recovering 212–217

relevant uncertainty 106

reporting culture 64

resilience, overview

meaning of 14–18, 234–235

outlook 243–244

potential problems 234–243

road map 224, 225 – 226

rule-based and mindfulness-based balance 226–234, 228

resources 78–79, 127, 201–202, 207–208

respect 151–153

response repository 131–133, 206

response teams see tiger teams

restraint bias 205

rewards 145–146, 214

Reynaud, Paul 30

rich pictures 236–237

risk management 124–125

biased samples 60

evolution of 12–14

and imagination 67–68

intelligent tools 65

interdependencies 96–98

long-term relationships 213–214

probability and impact 89–90

risk horizons 18–19, 61, 138

see also risks

risks

association with value 101

interdependencies 96–98

loss aversion 93–94

negative connotations 59

optimism bias 87

planning fallacy 126

and project management bodies of knowledge 46

see also risk management

role-play 135–136, 140, 144–145

rolling wave planning 75–76

Rommel, Erwin 32, 41

Ross, L. 111

Ross’ false consensus effect 111–113

routine-flexibility 136–138, 137

routines 161–162

rule-based project management 37, 43–45, 46–48, 51, 226–230, 228

S

Safeway 88

scenario planning 65, 68, 235–240

Schoemaker, P. 235

scrum meetings 76–77

selective exposure 112

self-preservation 193, 206

self-serving bias 112, 146–147

Semmelweis, Ignaz 113

Semmelweis reflex 113

sensitivity, to wider impacts 169, 182–183

shared information bias 70–72

sharing adversity 70

Shell 239–240

short-sightedness 61, 213

silo mentality 116, 130–131, 143–144, 198, 202

simplicity, lure of 85–94

simplification, of data 108

simulations 135–136, 140, 144–145, 197–198

Singapore 240

skillsets, developing 133

S.M.A.R.T goal-setting 241–242

Snook, Scott A. 49

social cohesion 152–153, 185

social interaction 98–99

social redundancy 131–132

soft systems methodology (SSM) 98

Space Shuttle Columbia case study 153–154

specialist knowledge see expertise

sponsors 148–150

spontaneity 171–173

stakeholder maps 236–237

stakeholders 22

anchoring 92

appreciating different perspectives 111, 116–117

and art of containing 183–186

and art of interpreting 114–117

and art of noticing 72–79

and art of preparing 147–153

and art of recovering 202–203, 212–217

awareness of uncertainty 78, 114, 116

status quo bias 94, 163–164

storytelling 208–209, 238

structural oversimplification 86

successful projects see project success

sunk cost fallacy 94, 164, 166–167

Sutcliffe, K.M. 17, 48, 227

T

task dependencies 115

task-orientation 41–43

Taylorism 46

team performance

commitment 168

cross-functional perspectives 64–65

developing skillsets 40–41, 133

improvisation 174–175

and morale 110

tiger teams 198–201, 206, 233

temporal discounting 61–62

Theranos 88

tiger teams 198–201, 206, 233

time, sense of 38–40

time discounting 61–62

total quality management (TQM) 128

training, management 139–141

transaction costs 215

transactional leadership 21, 141

transformational leadership 141–143

transparency 74–75, 78, 174, 206

trust 151–153, 206–207, 216

TTP Group (The Technology Partnership Group) 23–24, 242–243

deference to expertise 210–211

empowerment 133–135

just culture 180–181

management training 139–140

organisational identification 184–185

rolling wave planning 75–76

spontaneity through improvisation 171–172

tunnel vision 196

Tversky, A. 125

U

uncertainty, overview 7–10, 8, 14, 18–19

see also aleatory uncertainty; epistemic uncertainty

unrealistic optimism 85–89

V

value-driven project management 101–102, 116–117, 135

vigilance 63–64, 78, 134

visibility 74–75

Vogus, T.J. 17

von Moltke, Helmuth 36

W

Wack, P. 235

Wald, Abraham 60

Walgreens 88

Weick, Karl 48, 49, 170, 227

Weinstein, N. 86

Weldon, Dave 187

whole-life value techniques 102

Williams, Mike 118

Williams, T. 46

World War II case study see Fall of France (1940) case study

WorldCom 56

worst-case scenarios 239, 240

Z

zooming in 61