- Foreword
- Preface
- Acknowledgments
- Part I: Market Fiction, Flaws, and Facts
- Chapter 2: Fictions Told to Investors
- Chapter 3: Flaws in Modern Financial Theory
- What Modern Portfolio Theory Forgot or Ignored
- Modern Portfolio Theory and the Bell Curve
- Standard Deviation (Sigma) and Its Shortcomings
- Improper Process
- High Sigma Days We All Remember
- Rolling Returns and Gaussian Statistics
- Risk and Uncertainty
- Back to the Original Question: Is Volatility Risk?
- Is Linear Analysis Good Enough?
- Linear Regression Must Have Correlation
- The 60/40 Myth Exposed
- Discounted Cash Flow Model
- Chapter 4: Misuse of Statistics and Other Controversial Practices
- Chapter 5: The Illusion of Forecasting
- Chapter 6: The Enemy in the Mirror
- Chapter 7: Market Facts: Bull and Bear Markets
- Chapter 8: Market Facts: Valuations, Returns, and Distributions
- Part II: Market Research
- Chapter 9: Why Technical Analysis?
- Chapter 10: Market Trend Analysis
- Chapter 11: Drawdown Analysis
- What Is Drawdown?
- Drawdown Terminology
- The Mathematics of Drawdown and Equivalent Return
- Cumulative Drawdown
- S&P 500 Drawdown Analysis
- S&P Total Return Analysis
- Dow Jones Industrial Average Drawdown Analysis
- Dow Industrials Total Return Analysis
- Gold Drawdown
- Japan’s Nikkei 225 Drawdown
- Copper Drawdown
- Drawdown Intensity Evaluator (DIE)
- Part III: Rules-Based Money Management
- Chapter 12: Popular Indicators and Their Uses
- Chapter 13: Measuring the Market
- Weight of the Evidence Measures
- A Note on Optimization
- Indicator Evaluation Periods
- Price-Based Indicators
- Breadth-Based Indicators
- Slope of Moving Average
- World Market Climate
- Cyclical Market Measure
- Relative Strength
- Dominant Index
- Trend Capturing Measure
- LTM—Long-Term Measure
- Bull Market Confirmation Measure
- Initial Trend Measures (ITM)
- Trend Gauge
- Chapter 14: Security Ranking, Selection, Rules, and Guidelines
- Chapter 15: Putting It All Together: The “Dancing with the Trend” Model
- Weight of the Evidence
- Investing with the Weight of the Evidence
- Ranking and Selection
- Discipline
- Sell Criteria
- Tweaking the Model
- Model in Action
- Risk Statistics, Ratios, Stops, Whipsaws, and Miscellaneous
- Mutual Fund Expenses
- Turnover and Taxes
- Watching a Tactical Strategy over the Short Term
- Benchmarking
- Full Cycle Analysis
- Actual Results from a Rules-Based Trend-Following Strategy—Dancing with the Trend
- Mean Shifting
- Chapter 16: Putting Trend-Following to Work
- Chapter 17: Conclusions
- Appendix A: Passive versus Active Management
- Appendix B: Trend Analysis Tables
- Appendix C: Market Breadth
- Appendix D: Recommended Reading
- Bibliography
- About the Author
- About the Online Resources
- Index
- End User License Agreement
To Laura, and our children, Dusti, Grant, Derek, and Kane.
And our grandchildren: Katy, Kinsey, Grayson, Connor, and Elaine.
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