PART I

Why Exponential Disruptions Are Happening More Quickly and More Often

When reports emerged in January 2020 from China of a novel disease that spread like the flu but seemed far more lethal, the world’s scientific community kicked into high gear. Researchers in China used high-speed genetic-sequencing equipment to sequence the genome of the novel coronavirus associated with the disease and posted the genome online so that scientists everywhere could study it. As evidence of infection by the virus and familiarity with the disease’s symptoms quickly spread, scientists compressed into a few months procedures that usually take years, including efforts to identify existing medicines that ameliorate COVID-19’s worst effects, randomized clinical trials, and preliminary vaccine research. This was a manifestation of the power of computing and the massive transformation that silicon has wrought in the life sciences. What used to cost billions of dollars and require teams of scientists—such as sequencing a human genome—now can be done in an hour with an automated sequencing machine for less than $500.

We also got a glimpse of what the future might hold for us as a massively connected society. Hundreds of millions who had been studying face-to-face in schools, technical colleges, and tertiary institutions began distance learning, studying from home with peers and teachers via videoconferencing, an early version of what might finally take shape as virtual reality (V.R.) classrooms in which every class member is present though not physically in the same room. Huge swathes of society learned how to use videoconferencing tools to build connections and became comfortable having meetings, going to church, and celebrating birthdays over the Internet.

The power of collective existence came into clear focus. Kinsa, a company tracking the temperature of more than a million U.S. users of digital thermometers linked to smartphones, collected data on unusual clusters of fever that were detectable in the early stages, hinting at how our devices collectively may become a de facto pandemic early-warning system, superior even to existing detection methods.¹ Dr. Eric Topol, a renowned physician and advocate for digital health and A.I. applications in health care, launched a large-scale trial to test whether Apple Watches could be used to identify virus hot spots by measuring increases in their wearers’ resting heart rates. On the more radical front, researchers unveiled plans for a system to spot early signs of COVID-19 outbreaks by monitoring sewage systems for genetic evidence of the virus.

Digital thermometers, online grocery shopping, and delivery drones (to alleviate the painful shipping bottlenecks that slowed package delivery) exemplify the new ways of living, shopping, working, and playing that we adopted almost overnight. Whether these shifts are permanent remains to be seen. But the speed with which society took up new technologies, adapted cultural and economic activity, and accelerated efforts to work toward a cure and a relevant vaccine was mind-boggling. And it was possible only because the underlying conditions for rapid technology-driven changes existed and were accessible to billions of people on Earth. This section reviews the technological and cultural stimuli of the most innovative of these changes and outlines the challenges that established enterprises most commonly face in attempting to remain viable in the face of them.