Truth 5. Use a systematic process

Work the problem. A systematic process can help in making better decisions by helping to avoid or adjust for some of the biases in our thinking. It can ensure that you consider different options carefully and impartially and don't get too caught up in emotion or fall victim to other biases.

The classic rational process is to identify the problem (finding a bride, for example), identify the criteria for making a choice (intelligence, humor, romance), assign weights to the criteria (humor is more important than intelligence), find a process to generate alternatives (online dating service), evaluate each alternative (blind dates), and select the best choice (tie the knot).

A systematic process can help in making better decisions by helping to avoid or adjust for some of the biases in our thinking.

In their book Winning Decisions, J. Edward Russo and Paul J. H. Schoemaker lay out a four-stage process for making decisions. The process begins with the divergent activities of framing and gathering intelligence. Framing sets the viewpoint and parameters of decision making. Gathering intelligence determines the facts and opinions that will inform the decision, as well as what is unknowable. This first part is about expanding options. The last two stages are the more convergent process of coming to conclusions and learning from experience to improve future decisions.

In their book Smart Choices, John S. Hammond, Ralph L. Keeney, and Howard Raiffa recommend using an approach they call PrOACT—problem, objectives, alternatives, consequences, trade-offs. This systematic approach can help in identifying what the decision is and specifying the objective, considering risk tolerance and looking at how what you decide on today influences what you may decide in the future.

Not all decisions are rational and systematic. When we worked through the selection of a marriage partner above, you may have been thinking that this rational approach was unrealistic. Did your own courtship proceed this way? I can tell you mine didn't. (It all started with a chance meeting by a young reporter after a frog jumping and turtle racing contest at a local 4-H fair, but that is a story for another day.) At the same time you are filling out your evaluation, your potential partners are filling out theirs. You need to select someone who also chooses you. (Otherwise, it's stalking.) It's not so much a decision process as a dance. Many decisions are like this—a somewhat orderly dance rather than a linear process.

We also have to beware of rationality. Often what appears to be a rational approach to decision making is actually something that's added after we've already made our decision. In this case, it's not rational, but rationalization. This is like when you decide you're going to hire a new employee or consultant based on past relationships and then lay out your arguments for doing so. You might shape the job description or request for proposals to give the desired candidate an edge. Then, surprise, this person is the best fit for the criteria! The rational part comes in after we actually make the decision.

Despite these caveats, there is great power in employing a systematic approach to decision making. This is particularly true when there is great complexity or there are serious consequences of the decision. When you can take the time, a rigorous process can help to shine light on complexity to keep from stumbling through the fog. A decision process is also important if you need to explain the decision to others so that they are aligned in implementing it. If you are leading a platoon into battle or a company into the market, you owe it to the people behind you to have thought through the decision carefully. It also helps to slow down the process sufficiently to ensure that you look before you leap.

When you can take the time, a rigorous process can help to shine light on complexity to keep from stumbling through the fog.