Subject Index
Abacus
Abax
Absolutism
Accounting methods
Active management
Actuarial science
Addition, historical perspective
Africa
Agricultural cooperatives. See also Farmers
AIM Constellation Fund
Alcoa
Aleae
Aleatorius
Aleatory
Algebra
Algeria
Algorithm
Al-jabr
Alpha
Alphabetic numbering system
Al zahr
Ambiguity aversion
American Demographics
American Fibonacci Association
American Mutual Fund
American Revolution
Amicable numbers
Amsterdam stock exchange
ANB Investment Management & Trust
Ancient Egypt
Ancient Greece
“An Economic Theory of Self-Control” (Shefrin)
Annals of Mathematics
Annuities. See also Insurance
Annuities upon Lives (de Moivre)
Anomalous behaviors
Anthropometric Laboratory
Antisocial behavior
Apodeictic certainty
A posteriori probability
A priori probability
Arabic numbering system
Architecture
Arithmetic
Arithmetic (Diophantus)
Arithmetic mean
Ars Cogitandi (La logique)
Ars Conjectandi (The Art of Conjecture) (Bernoulli)
Ars Magna (The Great Art) (Cardano)
Arthur D. Little management consulting firm
Association for Investment Management & Research
Assumptions, forecasting and
Astragalus
Astronomy
AT&T
Average man (l’homme moyeri)
Averages of averages
Aversion, to the mean
Backgammon
Backwardation
Baghdad
Balla
Balliol College
Bankers Trust
Bank for International Settlements
Banking industry
Bank of America
Basle Committee
Battle of Legnano
Bayes’s theorem
Baylor University
Behavioral finance
Belief
Bell curve, see Normal distribution
Berkeley
Bidding competitions
Big Bang
Billiards
Bills of Mortality
Bingo
Binomial theorem
Biogen
Black-Scholes model
Boeing
Bonds
Bookkeeping
Book of Squares, The (Barbarossa), see Liber Quadratorum
Book of the Abacus
Bottomry
Box can
Brazil Fund
Breaking even
Breslaw, sampling research
Bretton Woods agreements
British Association for the Advancement of Science
British census
Budapest
Business cycles
“But only for the most part”
Button Wood Tree Agreement
Buy-and-hold strategy
BZUXRQVIICPRGAB
BZW Global Investors
Cadasters
Calculation
Calculators
Calculus, historical perspective
Call options
Cambridge
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
Capitalism
Capital markets
CAPM, see Capital Asset Pricing Model
Card games
Cardano’s “circuit”
Casino
Cause-and-effect
CBOE, see Chicago Board Options Exchange
Census
Central limit theorem
Ceres
Certainty
Chamber of Assurance
Chaos theory
Chapel of the Pyx
Chase Bank
Cheating
Chemical Bank
Chess
Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE)
Chicago Board of Trade
Cho-ai-mai
Choice theories
Church of England
Cifr/cipher
Cipher-alphabet system
Citibank
Coca-Cola
Code of Hammurabi
Coefficients
Coffee houses
Coin-tossing game
Collateral
Columbia
Combinations
Commodities
Competition, perfect
Complete market
Compulsive gambling
Computerized trading
Computer technology, implications of
Confederate bonds
Confederate States of America
Conjecture analysis
Consolidated Edison (Con Ed)
CONSTANTINOPLE
Continental Airlines
Contracts. See also specific types of contracts
“Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk” (National Bureau of Economic Research)
Convergence process
Conviction, probability studies
Cornell
Correlation. See also Covariance
Cost-of-living index
Cotton loan
Counter-Reformation
Counting device
Court cards
Covariances
Craps
Crusades
Cubic equations
Cynicism
Daily living activities, significance of
Dart games
Data mining
Deca
De Caelo (Aristotle)
Decision-making
Decision regret
Decision theory
De Divine Proportione (Paccioli)
Default
Degree of satisfaction
Degrees of belief. See also A priori probability
Delta
De Mensura Sortis (On the Measurement of Lots) (de Moivre)
De Subtilitate Rerum (“On the Subtlety of Things) (Cardano)
De Vita Propria Liber (The Book of My Life) (Cardano)
Dice
Diophantine equations
Disquisitiones Arithmeticae (Gauss)
Distribution
Diversification
Dividends
Diving Company
Division
Doctrine of Chances, The (de Moivre)
“Does the Stock Market Overreact?” (Thaler/DeBondt)
Dog racing tracks
Domesday Book of 1085
Double doubt
Double-entry bookkeeping
Double-headed cards
Dow Jones Industrial Average
Ducat
DuPont
Eadem mutata resurgo (“However changed, it is always the same”)
EAFE (Europe, Australia, and the Far East)
Earnings per share
Economic Consequences of the Peace, The (Keynes)
Economics, generally
Edict of Nantes
Efficient portfolios
Egypt, see Ancient Egypt
Eikos
Elements (Euclid)
Endowment effect
Enlightenment, The
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
Environmental tobacco smoke (ETS), risks
Epidemiologists
Epistemiological probability
Equals symbol
Equilibrium, in economic theory
Equitable Society
Equity investment
Essai philosophique sur les probabilities (Laplace)
Essay Towards Solving A Problem In The Doctrine of Chances (Bayes)
Euclidean geometry
Eugenics
Expectancy, mathematical
Expected return
Expected value. See also Expectancy, mathematical
Experimental economics
“Explaining Investor Preference for Cash Dividends” (Shefrin/Statman)
Extrapolation, in forecasting
Exxon
Farmers
Fascinating Fibonaccis
FATE
Federal Communications Commission (FCC)
Federal Reserve Board
Federal Reserve System
Fees
Fermat’s Last Theorem
Fibonacci numbers
Fibonacci ratio
Fibonacci sequence
Financial engineers
Fingerprints
Fire insurance
First American
Fiscal policy
Forecasting
Foreign exchange markets
Foreign exchange rates
Fortune-telling
Fractions
Free agency
Freedom, types of
Free-market economists
French Académie des Sciences
French-Pox
Frequencies, implications and uses of. See also Normal distribution
Futures contracts
Gambling, generally
Games of chance
Game theory
General Electric
Generalizations, information quality and
General Motors
General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, The (Keynes)
Genetic algorithms
Geodesic measurement
Geometry
German Metallgesellschaft AG
Gibson Greetings
GIGO (Garbage In, Garbage Out)
Girls of Aberdeen
Global economy, shifts in
God
Golden mean
GOUVERNOUR
Grand National Evil
Gravity, and probability
Great Crash
Great Depression
Greece
Greeks, see Ancient Greece
Gross domestic product (GDP)
Groundes of Artes (Record)
GTE Corporation
Gulf War
Gumption-Reviver machine
Guys and Dolls
Halley’s comet
Hartwell & Campbell Growth Fund
Harvard Business School
Harvard College
Hazard game
Hebrew civilization. See also Talmud
Hebrew University
Hedging
Hedonimeter
Hereditary Genius (Galton)
Heredity studies
Hindu-Arabic numbering system
Home equity
Homme moyen, see Average man
Homogeneity
Horse racing
Hottentots
House money effect
House of Commons
Huguenots
Human capital
Human measurements
Human traits, measurement of
Hypothesis testing
IBM
Ilis
Immoral certainty
Inconsistency
Independent trials
Inductive reasoning
Industrial insurance
Industrial revolution
Inference
Infidel symbols
Infinity
Inflation, implications of
Information processing
Information quality
Institute for Advanced Study
Insurance, generally
Insurance Company of North America
Interest payments
Interest rates, implications of
International Flavors and Fragrances (IFF)
International investing
International Monetary Fund
International Statistical Congress
Invariance
Inverse probability
Investment management
Investors, generally
Iowa
Irrational behavior
Irreversibility
Islam
Jansenists
Jewish scholars
Johnson & Johnson
Journal des Scavans
“Judgment Under Uncertainty” (Kahneman/Tversky)
Jury verdicts
King’s College
Knuckle-bone, see Astragalus
Lady Luck
Laker Airlines
La Logique, ou I’art de penser (Logic, or the Art of Thinking). See also Logic
Latin, language barriers and
Law of Averages
Law of Frequency of Error
Law of Great Numbers
Law of Large Numbers
Law of Supply and Demand
Lettres de faire
Liber Abaci (Book of the Abacus) (Fibonacci)
Liber de Ludo Aleae (Book on Games of Chance) (Cardano)
Liber Quadratorum (The Book of Squares) (Barbarossa)
Life annuities
Life expectancy tables
Lightning strikes
Linear programming
Liquidity
Literary Digest
“Lloyd’s List”
Lloyd’s of London
Loaded dice
Logic
Logic (Monastery of Port Royal)
Logic, or the Art of Thinking. See also Logic
London Assurance Corporation
Long run, wins/losses
Loser portfolios
Losing streaks
Loss
Lotteries
Lottery games
Loves of the Plants, The (Galton)
Luck
“Luck Be a Lady Tonight”
Lute-String Company
McDonald’s
McDonnell-Douglas
MAKER
Manhattan Fund
Man-made risks, recognition of
Marine insurance
Market research
Market timing
Market volatility
Massachusetts General Hospital
Match-penny game
Mathematical expectation, see Expectancy, mathematical
Mathematical Society
Mathematicians
Mathematics. See also Measurement
Maximin
Mayans
Mean. See also Arithmetic mean
Measurement
Mécanique céleste (Laplace)
Medical treatment options
Mental accounting
Merchant of Venice
Merck
Microsoft
Middle Ages
Mid-parents
Milligan College
Minimax
Minus symbol
MIT
Model(s). See also specific risk management strategies
Modeling, statistical
Modern market economy
Monetary policy
Monte dei Paschi
Moral certainty
Moral right
Morgan Bank
Morgan Stanley & Company
Morningstar
Mortgages, prepayment privileges
Moscow
Motivation
Movable type
Moving targets
Multiplication, historical perspective
Multiplication tables
Mutual funds
Myopia
Mysticism
National Association of Realtors
National Bureau of Economic Research
National debt
Natural and Political Observations made upon the Bills of Mortality (Graunt)
Natural law
Nature, implications of
Neanderthals
Negative numbers
Negotiations, in decision-making
Neural networks
New York Stock Exchange
Nifty-Fifty growth stocks
Nonlinearity
Nonrational behavior. See also Irrational behavior
Normal curve, see Normal distribution Normal distribution
Normal Scheme
Normans
Notional value
Numbering system
Numbers
Number theory
Objective analysis
Observations on Reversionary Payments (Price)
Observations on the Importance of the American Revolution and the Means of Making It a Benefit to the World (Price)
Odds, in games of chance. See also Probability
Of the Nature and Use of Lots (Gataker)
Optimism
Optimization
Options
ORIGINAL DESIGN
Origin of the Species, The (Darwin)
Overreaction, in the stock market
Oxford
Pacific Stock Exchange
Pacific Telesis
Papers of the Imperial Academy of Sciences in St. Petersburg
Parthenon
Pascal-Fermat solution
Pascal’s Arithmetic Triangle
Pascal’s Wager (le pari de Pascal)
Past events, forecasts based on
Pebbles experiment
Pensées
Penta
Perfect numbers
Performance quotient (P.Q.)
Pessimism
Petersburg Paradox
Philosophical Transactions
Pi
Pin factory, uncertainty illustration
Plague
Plain-vanilla put options
Planetary orbits
Plus symbol
Poker
Polaroid
Political Arithmetic (Petty)
Political economy
Politics (Aristotle)
Polizza
Population statistics
Portfolio(s)
Portfolio selection
Port Royal Logic, see Logic
Posterior probability
Precious Mirror of the Four Elements
Preferences
Premiums, function of
Presbyterian Ministers’ Fund
Prime numbers
Principia (Newton)
Principles of Morals and Legislation, The (Bentham)
Printing, invention of
Probabilità
Probability, generally
Probability theory
Probare
Problem of the points puzzle. See also Balla
Procrastination
Procter & Gamble
Productivity trends
Propositions (Keynesian)
Prospect Theory
“Prosperity is just around the comer”
Protestant Reformation, see Reformation
Prudential Investment
Prudent Man Rule
Psychogalvanometer
Psychological screening
Put options
Pythagorean theorem
Pyx
Quadratic equations
Quantification. See also Measurement; Risk management
Quants
Quetelismus
Quincunx I/II
Randomness
Random variation, historical perspective
Random-walk hypotheses
Rationality. See also Irrational behavior
Rational theory
Reformation
Regression to the mean
Renaissance
Respiratory Health Effects of Passive Smoking: Lung Cancer and Other Disorders (Environmental Protection Agency)
Reversion to the mean
Rho
Risicare
Risk. See also specific types of risk
Risk, Uncertainty and Profit (Knight)
Risk aversion
Risk management
Risk-seekers
Risk-taker, defined
Risk-taking
Roman civilization
Roulette. See also Gambling; Games of chance
Roxana, or The Fortunate Mistress (Defoe)
Royal Academies Company
Royal Artillery
Royal Exchange Assurance Corporation
Royal Geographic Society
Royal Military College
Royal Mint
Royal Observatory
Royal Society
Royal Statistical Society of London
Rubiyat (Khayyam)
Russell 3000
Sampling
Santa Clara University
Savings and loans industry, deposit insurance
Science of statistics
“Science of the probable”
Science of transposition and cancellation
Second-hand smoke research
Self-control
Self-denial
Seven, combinations of
Seven Per Cent Cotton Loan
Ship auctions
Short run wins/losses
Sixes, throwing
Slaughter’s Coffee House
Slot machines
Smoke-Free Environment Act
Snake eyes
Society of Lloyd’s
Sonnez
Sopra le Scoperte dei Dadi (On Playing Dice) (Galileo)
Specimen Theoriae Novae de Mensura Sortis (Exposition of a New Theory on the Measurement of Risk) (Bernoulli)
Spectrum Auction
Speculation
Speculators
Spiral (Fibonacci)
Standard deviations
Standard of living, measurement of
Standard & Poor’s Composite of 500 Stocks
Stanford
Statistical inference. See also Sampling, statistical
Statistical modeling
Statistics. See also Sampling, statistical
Stature
Stock market
Stock market crash
Stock price, see also Market volatility
Strike price
Subjective perspective
Subtraction, historical perspective
Summa de arithmetic, geometria et proportionalita (Paccioli)
Sunya
Superstition
Surprise, implications of
Sweetpeas
Symbolic algebra
Systemic risk
Talmud
Tapestry Company
Tax farmer
Theoria Motus (Theory of Motion) (Gauss)
Théorie analytique des probabilitiés (Laplace)
Theory of games, see Game theory
Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (von Neumann and Morganstern)
Theory of Investment Value, The (Markowitz)
Theory of Political Economy, The (Jevons)
“Theory of Speculation, The” (Bachelier)
Theory Police. See also Behavioral finance
Time. See also Market timing
Trade, importance of
Traders, specialized
Treatise on Man and the Development of His Faculties, A (Quetelet)
Treatise on Probability, A (Keynes)
Treaty of Utrecht
Trends, in stock market
Trial and error
Trial of the Pyx
Trivial Pursuit
Truth
Tsifra
Tulip options
12b-1 fees
“Typical Laws of Heredity” (Galton)
Uncertainty
Underwriters, insurance
Union Carbide
U.S. Steel
University of Chicago
University College
University of Ghent
University of Göttingen
University of Illinois
University of Iowa
University of Pennsylvania
University of Quebec
University of Rochester
University of Santa Clara
Utility
Vagueness
Valuation
Value. See also Valuation
Value stocks
Vanguard Group
Variance
Vena
Venereal disease
Venery
“Venus” throw
Victorian era
Volatility, see Market volatility
Wahrscheinlich
Waratagh
Wealth
Wealth of Nations, The (Smith)
Weather forecasts
Wells Fargo–Nikko Investment Advisors
Whetstone of Witte (Record)
Wilshire 5000
Winner portfolios
Winner’s Curse
Winning streaks
Wisdom, conventional
World Bank
World of Mathematics, The (Newton)
World Series illustration
Xerox
Yale
Yields, stocks and bonds
Zero, invention of
Zero-sum game
Zoonomia, or the Theory of Generations (Gallon)
