16

Put All These People Together and Stir the Pot

NOW THAT YOU know who and where all these people are, what do you do with this information? How do you utilize demographics on a day-to-day basis in business or everyday life? Easy! Think back to that quote I gave you in Chapter 2: “Everything in business—everything—is affected by supply and demand.”

And what are people? They are the demand part of the equation. And as a budding demographer you count them, figure out where they are and where they are going, and try to determine what they need and want.

Do all that and you can effectively and economically provide the “supply” part of the equation. Kind of like Phil Visintainer and his barbecue chicken.

Simple, right?

So at this point, let’s be like Phil and apply our vast demographic knowledge to the real world. Let’s further examine how it has been used in the past to determine “supply,” figure out what demographics tell us about various supply needs of the present, and see if we can use it to predict future supply.

During the course of this exercise, I will be providing you with my subjective opinions about what the demographics mean for the various scenarios, but I want you to try to beat me to the punch—posit your own opinions before I offer mine. And always feel free to second-guess me. Demographic forecasting is, to some degree, more of an art than a science, and demographers do occasionally get it wrong. Though—“ahem”—my demographic-based forecasts have proved prescient far more often than not. . . .

In drafting this section of the book I must admit that I was challenged by how to organize it. I am so used to looking at things via the eyes of the specific generations that I wanted to proceed on a generational basis—that is, providing another chapter on each generation and then showing how each has impacted the various businesses and sectors in the past, and then weigh in on how I think they will impact them in the future.

But I worried that this could get quite muddled, and that as I moved through the generations I might often need to backpedal to remind the reader how an earlier generation’s impact affected the business. In short, I came to believe that this approach might lead to the reader needing to pause too often in order to consider previous generational impacts. For example, motorcycles play a significant role with Baby Boomers, Generation X, and Gen Y, and though the impacts on the business were, and are, different depending upon each generation, would those differences get lost between my discussion of the Boomers and then, two generations later, of Gen Y?

So I determined that it perhaps makes more sense to examine specific business sectors—along with the occasional case-study company—and show how they’ve been impacted in the past and how I believe they might be impacted in the future by whichever generations are responsible for the impacts.

Space in this book does not allow for the inclusion of all business sectors, nor have I, by any means, conducted demographic research that covers all the sectors. And the targeted research I’ve done to determine demographic impacts on individual companies is extremely limited, especially given that more than 5,000 U.S. companies are publicly traded on the U.S. stock exchanges, and that there is just me and my colleagues conducting research for this book and other projects.

Speaking of publicly traded companies, at this juncture I need to make the following proclamation:

The information and data provided in this book reflect the views and opinions of Ken Gronbach and his KGC Direct colleagues. The views expressed may change at any time. The opinions expressed in this communication are those of the author(s). No representation is made concerning the accuracy of cited data. Nor is there any guarantee that any projection, forecast, or opinion will be realized.

Readers using this information are solely responsible for their own actions and invest at their own risk. Before making specific investments, further investigation is recommended. Although information contained in this book is derived from sources that are believed to be reliable, they are not always necessarily complete and cannot be guaranteed.

The value of investments, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise, and you may not get back the original amount invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Publicly traded securities of companies referenced in this book may be held by the author and/or his colleagues. References to these securities should in no way be deemed as an understanding of any future position, buying or selling, that may be taken by them.

In other words, conduct your own due diligence if and when considering the purchase of securities. Just because I might think Harley-Davidson, Inc., is a prime candidate for short selling does not mean you should just run out and put everything you own on a short position in HOG. And really, anyone willing to buy and sell stocks based solely on what someone else says about a specific position has no business being in the game.

Right! Now where was I?

Ah yes, businesses and sectors, and that’s how this section of the book is going to be organized.

But where should I start? Which business or sector should we examine first? Which business or sector is about to feel the full upside strength and tsunami-like power of any of the particular generations?

I’ve got it!

And you’ll have to pardon the pun, but we’re going to begin this section with the end. . . .