Index
A
Abrams tank example, 29
acceptability, fundamental issue of decision making, 210, 212
activation, project management life cycle, 52
actor. See decision maker
Aerospace/Defense projects, life cycle models, 67
aided decisions performance level, 237-239
alternatives. See decision alternatives Apple Macintosh computer example, 31
architecture selection, 121
B
biases, 207-210, 256
BMW Z3 example, 155, 259-261
brainstorming, 163-164
brainwriting, 164-165
Business and Organization Change projects, life cycle models, 67
business risk, 217
C
cautions, regarding quantitative approaches, 204-207
Challenger disaster example, 226, 253
client stakeholders, 63
cognitive maps, 92
Communication Systems projects, life cycle models, 67
competent performance level, 237-239
component requirements and design, 123
concept definition, 123
concept evaluation, 123
concept map, 234
concept of operations, 122
concept validation, 123
conception stage, project management life cycle, 52-53
concurrent decisions, 119
consequence table, 189-191
consumer stakeholders, 63
control gates, project management life cycle, 57-59
control structure definition and validation, 129
controlling stage, project management life cycle, 56-57
cost objectives, 170-171, 177
cost risk, 217-218
Cuban Missile Crisis example, 168-173
D
decide and implement, decision process, 16
decision
definition, 5, 73
elements of, 74-75
instinctive versus cognitive, 71-72
decision alternatives
assessing, 16
brainstorming, 163-164
brainwriting, 164-165
Cuban Missile Crisis example, 168-173
definition, 154
functional analysis, 156-157
groupware, 165-166
identifying, 16
importance of, 74, 153-154
information, determining need for more, 167-168
Microsoft Windows NT example, 174-177
morphological analysis, 166-167
problem definition process, 154-155
searching for, 161-163
stakeholder analysis, 156
training, 256
value analysis, 158-161
decision analysis, 73
decision authority stakeholders, 62
decision context
Boeing supercomputer example, 3-5
definition, 3
project objectives, 2
decision frame
broad objectives, 145
contrast, 141
definition, 137
environment, 145
generic, 145-150
great success, 142-143
house building example, 142-145
importance of, 138-139
major failure, 143
metaphor, 140-145
modest failure, 143
modest success, 143
programmatic objectives, 146
resource constraints, 145
slogan, jargon, or catchphrase, 141
spin, 141
stakeholders, 145
story, myth, or legend, 140-141
supportability/life cycle objectives, 146
system/product objectives, 146
training, 255
uncertainties, 146
use cases, 145
decision framework, 113
decision levels, 116-117
decision maker, 5-6
decision-making
aids, 103-104
approaches to, 89
cognitive maps, 92
doing first, 90-92, 102-103
history of, 87-89
importance of, 2
literary views of, 76-78
Observe-Orient-Decide-Act loop, 93-97
Pepsi example, 98
poor quality, 1
processes for unstructured decisions, 90
qualitative versus quantitative, 103
seeing first, 90-92, 100-102
stakeholders, 104
strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats (SWOT) analysis, 97-98
thinking first, 90-97
three cornerstones of, 5-7
decision order, 119-120
decision perspective, 113-114
decision process
definition, 5
general framework, 14-17
importance of, 11-12
resolving decisions example, 12-13
unstructured versus structured, 13
decision quality
evaluating, 78-79
good versus bad outcomes, 83-86
meta-decision, 82
philosophy of good decision-making, 80-81
process versus outcome, 79
decision risk, 217
decision solution, 160
decision trees, 277-289
decision types, 117-118
define the problem, decision process, 15
Dell computer example, 29
Denver International Airport example, 7
design definition, 123
Design for Life Cycle approach, 65
developing plans, 251
development system
construction, 126, 131-132
decisions, 126-127
importance of, 118
doing first decision-making, 90-92, 102-103
E
errors, omission versus commission, 229
establish objectives, decision process, 15
evaluation, 131
even swaps, 192-193
Event projects, life cycle models, 67
examples
Abrams tank, 29
Apple Macintosh computer, 31
BMW Z3, 155
Boeing supercomputer, 3-5
Challenger disaster, 251
Cuban Missile Crisis, 168-173
Dell computer, 29
Denver International Airport, 7
financial middleware software project, 220-221
Ford Taurus, 31
house building, 142-145
Hubble Space Telescope, 226-229
Internet, 29
Iridium, 97
Microsoft Office software, 29
Microsoft Windows NT, 174-177
Microsoft Windows software, 31
Pepsi, 98
Prospective Student Information System, 33-37
resolving decisions, 12-13
Sidewinder missile, 132-135, 147-150
Sigorsky, 63-64
Sydney Opera House, 32
University of Wisconsin, 38-39
Unmanned Aerial Vehicle, 29
U.S. Predator aircraft, 29
expertise, 237-240
F
Facilities projects, life cycle models, 67
failure, reasons for
Denver International Airport example, 7
Mars Climate Orbiter, 8
meeting project objectives, 8
project resolution types, 9-11
Segway personal transportation system, 7-8
software system projects, 9
FCS project, 40-42
feasibility analysis stage, project management life cycle, 53-54
financial middleware software project example, 220-221
Ford Taurus example, 31
function, definition, 156
functional analysis, 156-157
functional hierarchy, 157
fundamental objectives for decision, 170, 177
fundamental objectives hierarchy, 185-189
G
gather information and update the assessment, decision process, 16
groupware, 165-166
H
heuristics, 207-210, 256
Hubble Space Telescope example, 226-229
I
ideation process, 162
identify uncertainties, decision process, 16
implementation, fundamental issue of decision making, 210, 212
implementation risk, 217
implementation stage, project management life cycle, 55-56
implementing decisions
assessments, 108
control, 108
failure, avoiding, 105-106
feedback, 108
monitoring, 107-108
overview, 104
rules, 105
information
definition and validation, 129
determining need for more, 167-168
importance of, 129-131
Information Systems projects, life cycle models, 67
inputs, project management life cycle, 52
integration and qualification decisions, 118, 124
interdependency, 120-121
International Development projects, life cycle models, 67
Internet example, 29
investment, fundamental issue of decision making, 210-211
J
judgment, fundamental issue of decision making, 210, 212
K
key decisions, 121-122
key elements of decision, 182
knowledge, 75
L
life cycle. See also project management life cycle
models, 64-68
planning decisions, 118, 124-126
requirements, 117
Life Cycle Management approach, 65
linkages between decision problems, 254
location, 131
low probable risks, 217
M
maintenance decisions, 124
management structure, 117, 126, 127-129
managerial decision-making
categorization of project management decisions, 21-22
decision analysis, 28
definition, 20-21
failure, reasons for, 37-38
FCS project, 40-42
general project management decisions, 26-27
importance of, 19-20, 27-29
operational decisions, 25
project success, 23-24, 29-31
proper versus improper, 28-29
Prospective Student Information System example, 33-37
strategic decisions, 24
Sydney Opera House example, 32
tactical decisions, 25
University of Wisconsin example, 38-39
manufacturing, 124
market risk, 217
Mars Climate Orbiter (MCO), 1, 8
Media and Entertainment projects, life cycle models, 67
meta-decision, 82
Microsoft Office software example, 29
Microsoft Windows NT example, 174-177
Microsoft Windows software example, 31
Minneapolis I-35W bridge, 1
mission statement, 122
mitigation of risk, 217-218
mode, fundamental issue of decision making, 210-211
monitor, decision process, 16
morphological analysis, 166-167
N
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), 1, 8
need, fundamental issue of decision making, 210-211
needs analysis, 117, 122
new technology used in design, 121
O
Observe-Orient-Decide-Act (OODA) loop, 93-97
one-time decision, 94
operational decisions, 25, 117, 124
options, fundamental issue of decision making, 210-211
organizational structure, 121, 131
organizing decisions, 116
overconfidence, 236, 242-243
overextremity, 242-243
overprediction, 242-243
owner stakeholders, 63
P
Pepsi example, 98
performance objectives, 170-171, 177
planning activity, 115
planning stage, project management life cycle, 54-55
possibilities, fundamental issue of decision making, 210, 212
probability judgments, 242-243
probability theory, 244
problem definition decisions, 119-120
problem definition process, 154-155
Product and Service Development projects, life cycle models, 67
product subsystem, 123
product system
analysis and concept design, 123
decisions, 122
design, 117
programmatic objectives, 170, 177
programmatic risk, 217-219
programmatic uncertainties, 171, 177
project definition decisions, 119-120, 127
project management decision structure
decision levels, 116-117
decision order, 119-120
decision types, 117-118
definition and design decisions, 122-124
development system construction, 131-132
development system decisions, 126-127
importance of, 114-116
integration and qualification decisions, 124
interdependency, 120-121
key decisions, 121-122
life-cycle planning decisions, 124-126
management structure, 127-129
product system decisions, 122
project definition, 127
project management planning, 129-131
project manager construction, 128
Sidewinder missile example, 132-135
stakeholder system, 128
team development, 129
project management decisions, 265-275
project management life cycle activation, 52
conception stage, 52-53
control gates, 57-59
controlling stage, 56-57
definition, 48-50
environmental factors, 62
feasibility analysis stage, 53-54
implementation stage, 55-56
importance of, 47-48
inputs, 52
planning stage, 54-55
risk, 59
stages, 50-51
stakeholder decisions, 60-64
termination stage, 57
project management planning, 126, 129-131
project manager, as decision maker, 6
project manager construction, 128
project objectives
appropriate versus inappropriate, 5
definition, 2
training, 254
project optimization, 251
project planning, 251
project success case studies, 259-263
project variances over life cycle, 231
pros and cons, 183-185
Prospective Student Information System example, 33-37
Pugh matrix, 191-192
Q
qualitative approaches
consequence table, 189-191
even swaps, 192-193
fundamental objectives hierarchy, 185-189
pros and cons, 183-185
Pugh matrix, 191-192
qualitative value hierarchy, 158
quantitative approaches
biases, 207-210
cautions, 204-207
definition, 193
heuristics, 207-210
quantitative value model, 194-196
requirements for good decisions, 207-210
swing weights, 199-203
value functions, 196-199
quantitative value model, 194-196
R
random performance level, 237
recognition-primed decision (RPD), 100-102
requirements and architecture, 124
requirements definition, 123
requirements documents, 122
requirements for good decisions, 207-210
requirements gathering, 251
Research and Development projects, life cycle models, 67
resource definition and validation, 129
resource management, 251
resources, 131
risk
addressing, 220
analysis, 224
communication, 226
continuing risk management, 232-233
decision, 217
definition, 216-217
financial middleware software project example, 220-221
Hubble Space Telescope example, 226-229
identification, 223
importance of, 216-217
profile, 224-225
project management, 218-219
project management life cycle, 59
risk management plan, 222, 230-232
training, 255
types, 217
understanding, 218
risk management
analysis, 223-224
definition, 220
financial middleware software project example, 220-221
plan, 222, 231-232
process, 131, 222
profile, 224-225
role definition, 131
RPD. See recognition-primed decision
S
satisficing, 71-72, 101
scenario analysis, 232
schedule objectives, 170-171, 177
schedule risk, 217-218
seeing first decision-making, 90-92, 100-102
Segway personal transportation system, 1, 7-8
sequence of decisions, 94, 119
setting. See decision context
Sidewinder missile example, 132-135, 147-150
Sigorsky example, 63-64
Software projects, life cycle models, 67
Sony Walkman example, 155
spiral life-cycle model, 65-67
stages, project management life cycle, 50-51
stakeholder analysis, 156
stakeholder decisions, project management life cycle, 60
stakeholder system, 128
stakeholders
definition, 60-61
roles, 64, 124, 156
types, 62-63
strategic decisions, 24, 117
strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats (SWOT) analysis, 97-98
success, reasons for, 6-7
support decisions, 124
supportability/life cycle objectives, 171, 177
supportability/life cycle uncertainties, 171, 177
swing weights, 199-203
SWOT. See strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats (SWOT) analysis
Sydney Opera House example, 32
system, definition, 61-62
system/product objectives, 171, 177
system/product uncertainties, 171, 177
system validation, 124
T
tactical decisions, 25, 117
team development, 129
technical risk, 217-218
termination stage, project management life cycle, 57
test definition, 123
test planning, 117, 123
time, 130
time sequence of skills and resources on hand, 121
tracking and reporting progress, 251
trade-offs, fundamental issue of decision making, 210, 212
training
decision analysis curriculum, 253-256
knowledge areas for project managers, 249-250
pitfalls, 252-253
project management, 131-132
traditional, 250-251
transition reviews. See control gates, project management life cycle
U
uncertainty
addressing, 235
concept map, 234
definition, 233
gathering information, 235-243
programmatic, 171, 177
training, 255
weighing options, 244-245
underextremity, 242-243
underprediction, 242-243
University of Wisconsin example, 38-39
Unmanned Aerial Vehicle example, 29
upgrade decisions, 124
U.S. Predator aircraft example, 29
user stakeholders, 63
V
validation, 131
validation definition, 123
validation tools, 121
value, fundamental issue of decision making, 210, 212
value analysis, 158-161
value functions, 196-199
value hierarchy, 158-159
value measure, 158
value measure range, 158
values, 74-75
W
waterfall life-cycle model, 65, 67
work breakdown structure, 251