CHAPTER 10

Training Project Managers as Decision Makers

Although the conventional project management body of knowledge (PMBOK^® Guide) forms a good foundation for basic training and initial learning, it does not address the decisions and decision analysis techniques required to manage the complex problems of today’s projects. If you apply the traditional tools, and follow the rules and processes as prescribed, will your project be successful? As we have found, the answer is “not always.” Even if project managers do everything by the PMBOK^® Guide, they might still fail. The fact that most projects still fail suggests that traditional project management training is not enough. The PMBOK^® Guide, considered the bible of project management, emphasizes the following knowledge areas:

Integration

Scope

Time

Cost

Quality

Human resources

Communications

Risk

Procurement.

These knowledge areas are critical to project management, yet even more critical—as this text has suggested—are decisions and decision-making. This chapter focuses on the need for including decision-making and decision analysis in project management training courses. Training courses currently reflect business principles but do not include elements of decision-making and decision-making techniques as they relate to managing projects. When project managers do receive training related to decision-making, it is generally not presented in the context of project management.

This chapter presents the following sections:

The Elements of Traditional Project Management Training

The Pitfalls of Project Management Training

A Decision Analysis Curriculum.

The Elements of Traditional Project Management Training

Project management training currently includes rules, tools, and procedures. During training, project managers are taught how to overcome the typical pitfalls of poor project management that result in not achieving objectives, overspending, and late delivery. The core elements in many programs that support these efforts include:

(1) Planning the project (the focus is on business results)

(2) Gathering requirements (the focus is on how to collect requirements)

(3) Developing the plan (the focus is on identifying resources)

(4) Developing and using the work breakdown structure (the focus is on using Microsoft Project^® or similar software)

(5) Managing resources (the focus is on task duration and task assignments)

(6) Optimizing the project (the focus is on shortening project duration)

(7) Managing conflict (the focus is on handling conflict)

(8) Tracking progress and reporting (the focus is on controlling the project)

These and other elements are often referred to as the tools of project management. Project managers are taught the implementation and application of each tool. We understand that project managers cannot be taught how to improve their decision-making skills overnight; this is learned through experience. However, there is quite a bit that people can learn about decision-making to sharpen their skills and help them put a process in place to support decision-making. We consider this the “how to” in project management. Including the “how to” in project management training is critically important to managing projects; however, good management cannot be performed without good decision-making.

The Pitfalls of Project Management Training

Decision-making is not included in most project management texts. It should thus come as no surprise that it is also not included in project management training. In the early years of project management, there were very few training programs. The few programs that did exist emphasized only the technical aspects of project management and left out the behavioral aspects. However, over the past few years more companies have been offering project management training that covers the technical and the behavioral topics. Although project management training is more complete than ever, decision-making is still not included.

We hope this book has demonstrated the importance of decision-making to project management. How important is it? The fact is that the success of a project turns on the decisions made or not made. These decisions can be informed by all the technical and behavioral information generated by the rules, tools, and procedures taught in most project management training courses. But decisions that are made without considering all the alternatives over a complete set of objectives will likely turn out more poorly than needed.

Decisions affect whether a project meets its primary objectives—budget, schedule, and product performance. Decisions also affect the ability of the project to contribute to the organization’s financial portfolio. When poor decisions are made, projects run the risk of not meeting budget, not meeting the schedule, and not attaining product performance; projects also run the risk of failing to meet financial objectives. The sober truth about decisions is that decisions can cost human lives.

This was evidenced by the space shuttle Challenger disaster. In 1986, the Rogers Commission found that NASA’s organizational culture and decision-making processes were a key contributing factor in the tragic fate of the Challenger. The project had initially proved successful from a financial perspective, but in the end, at the launch of the Challenger, earlier faulty decision-making led to its failure and the deaths of its seven American crew members.

Perhaps the time is ripe for project management organizations to take a hard look at revising project management training and education programs so that they do include decision-making and decision analysis techniques. What elements should be included? A proposed curriculum is outlined in the next section.

A Decision Analysis Curriculum

The following topics should be considered for most, if not all, project management training:

Introduction to project management decision-making

• The range of decisions that are made or should be made as part of project management.

• The important aspects of a good decision-making process.

• Decisions should not be judged on the basis of the outcomes but on the basis of the process used. Why is this true?

• Different types of decision-making processes are needed for different decision situations.

• The key elements of any decision are the alternatives that could be selected, the objectives and values that enable determination of which alternative is most preferred, the information that is available at the time, and the remaining uncertainty associated with limited information. Determining which alternative will provide the best future objective results is the hard part.

Defining objectives

• Separating fundamental objectives from means objectives

• Knowing when more objectives are needed

• Using several techniques, including brainstorming and metaphors, to generate potential objectives

• Turning means objectives into fundamental objectives

• Developing measures for your objectives

Defining alternatives

• Using several techniques, including brainstorming, strategy tables (aka morphological boxes), and metaphors to generate new alternatives

• Using Value-Focused Thinking to improve the alternatives after an analysis has been completed

How and when to consider critical linkages between decision problems

• Defining decision levels

• Defining decision types

• Defining decision order

• Developing interdependency between decisions

Using a decision frame to improve your assessment of the decision

• Building the context for the decision

• Defining decision objectives

• Analyzing risks and uncertainties

• Determining information sources

Using decision aids to understand difficult choices and trade-offs

• Building decision trees to evaluate uncertain situations

• Using tornado diagrams to find the expected value of a decision

• Developing risk profiles for decision alternatives

• Defining the required information

• Determining the sensitivity of the decision

Addressing risk and uncertainty in important decision situations

• Developing risk mitigation options for the selected alternative

• Capturing the degree of uncertainty that exists in a decision problem and identifying when that uncertainty is an issue to be addressed

• Finding information that might change the decision and focusing collection efforts on those variables

Selecting and using a method for evaluating alternatives on the objectives

• Developing and using a pros and cons matrix

• Performing a qualitative assessment of the alternatives on the objectives

• Building a consequence table from a qualitative assessment

• Using Even Swaps after the decision has been narrowed down to two or three alternatives

• Understanding the basics of a quantitative analysis of the alternatives

Being aware of the biases and heuristics that affect decision-making quality

• Dealing with information bias

• Dealing with mental errors

• Handling the negative effect of biases

Determining when you should spend more time and money on a decision

• Buying additional information to remove uncertainty

• Understanding the value of additional information

• Understanding the value of perfect and imperfect information

This book is a resource for training efforts that wish to introduce topics about decision-making into existing training programs in project management. The integration of most elements of this training into existing training program requires the expertise of a trained decision analyst.