A. Checklist for opportunities and threats
a. Corporate actions
Monitor yield curve at Federal Reserve Economic Data page, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y. Also, see the essay by economist Robert Murphy, https://mises.org/wire/inverted-yield-curve-and-recession.
Keep close tabs on suppliers. Price increases reveal an inflationary boom is underway, and when the Federal Reserve begins to tighten the money supply and raises the Fed funds rate to prevent price inflation from accelerating, the countdown to the recession begins.
As the boom is maturing, prepare a list of possible takeovers to purchase assets at discount prices as the recession reaches its depths.
Monitor final sales closely to determine if consumers are beginning to reduce their demand for your products and/or services. Have plans in place to deal with secular and/or cyclical changes in sales and expenses. Adjust capital expenditures accordingly to reflect long-term prospects.
b. Small business action
Follow the guidelines mentioned earlier and pay particular close attention to local and regional business conditions to avoid expanding at the peak of the boom, when economic conditions would soon deteriorate.
When it appears the recession is ending, such as monthly unemployment numbers have stopped accelerating, the economy would appear to be poised for the next boom phase of the cycle. This could be time to begin expanding to other locations or taking over failed competitors.
B. Websites: taking pulse of the economy
a. Federal Reserve of St. Louis, https://fred.stlouisfed.org, especially FRED, cited above for popular time series that monitor the economy discussed in the text.
b. Bureau of Labor Statistics (bls.gov) contains national and local data that could be helpful to monitor economic conditions in your metropolitan area, city, or town.
c. Opinion and analysis that can be found on scores of websites include, Bloomberg (Bloomberg.com), CNBC (cnbc.com), Barron’s (barrons.com), Wall Street Journal (wsj.com), Mises. org (mises.org), AIER (aier.org), Zero Hedge (zerohedge.com). Scan these websites for essays by economists, investment analysts, and other professionals.
C. Books and essays
a. A comprehensive library of books on economics and public, many of which are available as PDFs can be found at https://mises.org/books-library. Other worthwhile books and essays are available at https://independent.org/publications/, https://aier.org/articles/, and material from scores of other organizations that can be obtained by Googling economic research for diverse perspectives on the economy.