The WWW (World Wide Web) – the Internet – and the ICT (Information and Communication Technology) – are all key, fairly recent and successive inventions that have substantially altered and shaped the world we live in (as we know it!). They have turned our existence upside down and affected every aspect of our lives, even the tiniest ones. Having said that, let us now reconsider how life is organized on Earth. To do this, let us simply think of the planet as an inhabited human body (an interlocked system). It is the transit system of roads and railways, bridges and tunnels, as well as air and seaports that enable our mobility across the continents – much like the vascular system that powers the human body. It is also the oil and gas pipelines and electricity grids that distribute energy and ensure the unblemished work of the nervous system of communications; additionally, it is the Internet cables, satellites, mobile networks and data centers, which allow for the smooth exchange and storage of information. Like the human body, the main components of the Earth system are interconnected by flows of energy and materials. And so we believe that a disruption of any of those flows would unquestionably sway the system in its entirety.

Today, this ever-growing infrastructural system – connectography as labeled by Parag Khanna¹ – consists of several million kilometers of roads, railways, pipelines and Internet cables. It represents a quantum leap in the mobility of people, goods, resources, knowledge and ideas. It is an evolution of the world from political geography (how we legitimately divide the world) to functional geography (how we actually use the world). It is hence quite evident that connectivity – rather than sovereignty – has developed into the organizing principle of the human species.

“Our yearly spending on global infrastructure is anticipated to rise to USD 9 trillion within the coming decade,” Mr. Khanna indicated. “We will build more infrastructure in the next forty years than we have in the past four thousand years.”

Thus far, Asia is topping the list of continents whose countries are investing the most time and money into promoting their connectivity, both regionally and internationally. In collaboration with some adjacent countries, China, for instance, announced in 2015 the creation of the AIIB (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank), a multilateral development bank that aims to support the building of infrastructure in the Asia-Pacific region. Beyond connectivity, the 21st century seems to be characterized by a second megatrend: planetary urbanization. According to Parag Khanna, “over 67% of the world’s population will live in cities by 2030 – megacities in specific” – a justly rational argument, as megacities are nowadays on the rise and could easily be dotted anywhere in the world:

• – the technology powerhouse of Silicon Valley (USA) is a very good example of a megacity extending from San Francisco, going south through Palo Alto, all the way down to St Jose;
• – the sprawl of Los Angeles is another good example of a megacity, spreading south all the way to San Diego, crossing the Mexican border, to finally reach Tijuana. San Diego to Tijuana is a binational conurbation, comprising over 5 million residents as well as a joint airport terminal;
• – one additional example of a megacity is the USA’s northeastern megalopolis – stretching from Boston to New York, to Philadelphia and Washington – the so-called Bos-Wash corridor. The latter is the second most populous megacity in the USA, with over 50 million residents.

However, the megacity trend looks like a viral phenomenon; Asia remains by far the area with the biggest megacities in the world:

• – from Tokyo, to Nagoya, to Osaka stretches the world’s largest megacity. It comprises over 80 million people and accounts for most of Japan’s economy;
• – China’s megacities seem to be on the rise as well, as clusters are coming together with populations reaching 100 billion people. The Yangtze River Delta, for instance, which is a triangle-shaped megacity cluster, covers an area of about 100,000 square kilometers and is home to over 115 million people (as of 2013). In 2018, the Yangtze River Delta had a GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of about USD 2.2 trillion – roughly the same size as Italy today.

These facts are weighty – also to some extent amusing – especially when we picture global diplomatic institutions (e.g. the Group of Twenty) basing their memberships on economic size rather than national representation. Under a similar scenario, some Chinese megacities would be granted access and have seats at the table, while whole countries like Argentina or Indonesia would see their partaking being revoked. The exact same leaning (towards increased connectivity) could be found in other countries, say India (Delhi), Iran (Tehran) and Egypt (Cairo-Alexandria corridor). And there is Lagos too – Africa’s largest city in Nigeria’s commercial hub – with its plans to create a rail network that would make it the anchor of a vast Atlantic coastal corridor – stretching across Benin, Togo and Ghana, to Abidjan (in Côte d’Ivoire). In other words, in some parts of the world, whole and entire countries could in time become suburbs of megacities – a plausible setup in a megacity world.

Going forward, it is worth noting that people normally move to cities to be connected, and connectivity is why these cities ultimately prosper. Whether it is São Paulo, Istanbul or Moscow (really!), any one of them has a GDP approaching or exceeding 33–50% of their entire national GDP. Bringing up the case of Gauteng province in South Africa – comprising Johannesburg and Pretoria (the capital) – it too accounts for more than 33% of the country’s GDP. Equally importantly, the latter is also home to the offices of almost every single multinational that directly invests in South Africa and (circuitously) the entire African continent.

As-is, planetary urbanization seems to be a good thing, a promising megatrend. Yet, we ask, is it risk-free? For some, urbanization is a source of negative externalities that would lead to frustration in the long run. In their opinion, urbanized cities are destroying the planet – and will continue to do so in the future. Hitherto, today, there are over 200 intercity learning networks booming, focusing on a single goal: sustainable urbanization – and having a lone objective: upholding the well-being of people. Fair talk indeed, nevertheless, could we put our faith in such upmarket promises? Yes, we can. Looking into the matter from a different perspective, we may ask ourselves the following question:

• – Do we really believe that developed nations, through summits held recurrently, would eventually succeed in reducing GHG (Greenhouse Gas) emissions and stop climate change? No, we do not.

We could reverse global warming by injecting sulfur into the stratosphere – an unconventional solution to an exceptional problem. Yet, until now (thank goodness!), there has been no need for such eccentric tenacities, especially since human beings have started to mitigate the carbon intensity of their respective economies via intercity handovers of technology, knowledge and policies. That is, that cities used to be part of the problem, but now, they are part of the solution. What is more, if we travel through megacities from end-to-end, one could easily notice extreme disparities within the same geography – another serious challenge for sustainable urbanization – and still, our global stock of financial assets has never been greater, approaching 300 trillion dollars. That is four times the actual GDP of the world. Indeed, since the latest financial crisis, we have taken on some huge debts, but – sadly! – did not invest them in inclusive growth. Therefore, it is only when sufficient and affordable public housing projects are built and robust investments in transportation networks are made that alienated cities and societies will come to feel complete again.

According to Parag Khanna, “connectivity is an opportunity — one of the most important asset classes of the present century”. Besides connectivity and equitability, megacities could also make the world more peaceful. How? By looking at regions of the world with dense relations across borders, we see only trade and investment trails, as well as stability. Following World War 2, once industrial integration had kicked off, it in due course led to the rise of the EU (European Union). In North America, the most important streaks on the map are not the USA–Canada or USA–Mexico borders, but the dense network of roads and railways, pipelines and electricity grids, as well as water canals.

Now, let us go back to Asia – Southeast Asia in particular. This region of 600 million people is evolving into the so-called Pax Asiana – a period of peace among Southeast Asian nations. A similar phenomenon is taking place in East Africa where six or so countries are investing in inter-nation railways and corridors so that noncoastal countries can get their commodities to the marketplace. At last, we wonder whether connectivity could overcome the patterns of rivalry among the great powers. And to amply answer this question, what would be better than to look at the experience of East Asian countries in this respect? After all, this is the region where WW3 was supposed to break out.

China and Japan, on the one hand, have had a long history of rivalry, often deploying their air forces and navies to show off their strengths in island disputes. Then, just some time ago, Japan started making large investments in China – Japanese cars are selling big in China – and guess where the largest number of foreigners residing in Japan comes from? BOOM, you guessed it: China. China and India, on the other hand, have also fought a major war and have three outstanding border disputes, but today, India is the second largest shareholder in the AIIB. The two countries are currently working together to build a corridor distending from Northeast India, through Myanmar and Bangladesh, to Southern China – and their trade volumes have grown from USD 20 billion a decade ago to USD 80 billion today.

We end with these words by Parag Khanna: “connectivity has remarkably developed into a new reality – a reality that has allowed cities and nations to aggregate over time into more diplomatic and well-off wholes”. “Though no one could swear for sure today that World War 3 will not break out, anyone could realize why it has not happened yet.”

Elie KARAM

October 2021