Anthologies are only as good as the material compiled, and 2001 saw publication of a seminal anthology in the forecasting field, J. Scott Armstrong’s Principles of Forecasting. That broad collection, along with the Armstrong and Kesten Green website www.forecastingprinciples.com, has been a standard reference for academics, forecasting software developers, and a subset of forecasting practitioners. And yet, the principles and evidence behind them remain largely unpracticed by the great majority of business forecasters.

Now, in 2015, the editors of this volume sought to assemble a mix of the most interesting, important, and influential authors and their writings in applied forecasting since 2001. Our objective was to provide material that is both thought-provoking and of great practical value to everyone involved in the business forecasting function. Our intended audience includes forecast analysts, demand planners, and other participants in the forecasting process, as well as the managers and executives overseeing the process and utilizing the forecasts produced.

Several articles highlight findings of recent research, and many reveal areas still subject to discussion and dispute. The common message, however, is that enlightened forecasting management (not just fancy new algorithms) may be the best way to improve forecasting practice.

This book could be subtitled: What Management Must Know about Forecasting. Forecasting is an inherently politicized process within organizations, and the self-interests of process participants are frequently at odds. This is an issue that only management can solve, but to do so, management must first be cognizant of the problem.

One thing every business executive does know is the harm of error in an organization’s forecasting. Harms include customer service failures, revenue shortfalls, and other public embarrassments. But what is the solution? The standard quick fixes—implementing fancy-sounding forecasting algorithms or elaborate collaborative processes—have generally failed to effect improvement. What is needed, we contend, is something less familiar—a critical understanding of the capabilities, and limitations, of what forecasting can realistically deliver.

The material is organized into four chapters:

• Chapter 1: Fundamental Considerations in Business Forecasting
• Chapter 2: Methods of Statistical Forecasting
• Chapter 3: Forecasting Performance Evaluation and Reporting
• Chapter 4: Process and Politics of Business Forecasting

We provide a brief introduction to each chapter, along with commentary on the significance and implications of each article.

Much of this book’s content first appeared in Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, and appears with permission from the International Institute of Forecasters. Len Tashman, co-editor of this compilation and Foresight’s editor in chief, extends special thanks to his staff: Liza Woodruff, Kim Leonard, Mary Ellen Bridge, Ralph Culver, and Stacey Hilliard.

We include several articles from the Journal of Business Forecasting, with permission graciously provided by its editor-in-chief, Dr. Chaman Jain. Thanks also to our longtime friends at the Institute of Business Forecasting: Anish Jain, Stephanie Murray, and Latosha Staton.

In addition, we incorporate various book, blog, and newsletter adaptations, as well as some original material, with thanks to Elizabeth Proctor of APICS, Rob Hyndman of Monash University, Andrey Davydenko and Robert Fildes of Lancaster University, Eric Stellwagen of Business Forecast Systems, Shaun Snapp of SCM Focus, Tim Rey of Steelcase, and Chip Wells of SAS.

The authors wish to thank SAS Press and Wiley for accepting the manuscript into the Wiley and SAS Business Series. We were assisted at SAS by Julie Platt, Shelley Sessoms, and Karen Day with the book contract and administration, by Brenna Leath as our managing editor, and by Jeff Alford and Denise Lange in many of the nuts and bolts of book production. Deborah Blackburn of BB&T reviewed and commented on the manuscript.

A special debt of gratitude is owed to Steve Morlidge of CatchBull Ltd., who wrote the foreword in addition to providing four of the articles.

Last, and most important, the editors wish to acknowledge all the authors whose work has been included in this book. We thank them for their tremendous contributions to the understanding, and better practice, of business forecasting.

Michael Gilliland

SAS Institute

Cary, North Carolina

Len Tashman

Foresight

Golden, Colorado

Udo Sglavo

SAS Institute

Cary, North Carolina