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Part V: Whether or Not
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Part V: Whether or Not
by Timothy Lister, Tom DeMarco
Waltzing with Bears: Managing Risk on Software Projects
About This eBook
Title Page
Also Available from Dorset House Publishing
Acknowledgments
Dedication Page
Authors’ Note
Voice
Website
Our Title
Contents
Prologue: The Ethics of Belief
Part I: Why
1. Running Toward Risk
Flight from Opportunity
What’s Different About Today?
Charette’s Risk Escalator
Ignoring Risk
Now What?
2. Risk Management Is Project Management for Adults
Risk: The Temporary Definition
Risks and Problems
Risk Transitions and Transition Indicators
Mitigation
Example: Risk Management in a School
Component Activities of Risk Management
Once More Over the Same Ground
The Special Challenge of Unthinkable Risk
3. Denver International Airport Reconsidered
Another Fine Mess
Beyond the Process
Risk Management at DIA
Risk Management Practices Honored in the Breach
So, Who Blew It?
4. The Case for Risk Management
Risk Management Makes Aggressive Risk-Taking Possible
Risk Management Decriminalizes Risk
Risk Management Sets Up Projects for Success
Risk Management Bounds Uncertainty
Risk Management Provides Minimum-Cost Downside Protection
Risk Management Protects Against Invisible Transfers of Responsibility
Risk Management Can Save Part of a Failed Effort
Risk Management Maximizes Opportunity for Personal Growth
Risk Management Protects Management from Getting Blindsided
Risk Management Focuses Attention Where It Is Needed
Part II: Why Not
5. The Case Against Risk Management
1. Our stakeholders are not mature enough to face up to risk.
2. The extent of uncertainty is just too much.
3. Explicit windows of uncertainty excuse poor performance.
4. A “manage for success” approach is better.
5. The data needed to do risk management effectively is lacking.
6. Risk management in isolation is dangerous.
6. The Onus of Uncertainty
“Oh, you mean that oncoming train”
Variation on the Theme
Fortunately, There’s a Vaccine
7. Luck
“We’ll take our chances on that one.”
“I know April will be tough—that’s why I’m giving the job to you!”
Shocked, Disappointed, and Dismayed
The Indy 500 Analogy
Part III: How
8. Quantifying Uncertainty
Same Idea in Picture Form
What the Risk Diagram Tells Us About Today’s Common Practices
The Nano-Percent Date
Yes, a Window, but How Much of a Window?
9. Mechanics of Risk Management
Maybe We’re Not So Bad at Estimating
Yesterday’s Problem
Okay, We Listed the Risks—Now What Do We Do About Them?
Somebody Else’s Risk
Risk Exposure
A Word About Showstoppers
Risk Reserve
Mitigation Costs
Transition Indicators and Transition Monitoring
10. Risk Management Prescription
What It Means to Do Risk Management
N-Based Scheduling
Commitments and Goals
Uncertainty Trade-Offs
A Note on Publication of the Risk Census
11. Back to Basics
The Hidden Meaning Behind “I Don’t Know”
Uncertainty Diagrams (Risk Diagrams) Again
A Better Definition of Risk
Characteristics of Risk Diagrams
Aggregate and Causal Risks
Two Kinds of Model
One More Nuance About Risk Diagrams
12. Tools and Procedures
Complex Mixing
The Monte Carlo Effect
Simulating the Two-Uncertainty Run
The Software Project Risk Model
A Side-Effect of Using Simulation
Alternatives to RISKOLOGY
13. Core Risks of Software Projects
Risks Common to All Software Projects
Core Risk #1: Schedule Flaw
Core Risk #2: Requirements Inflation
Core Risk #3: Turnover
Core Risk #4: Specification Breakdown
Core Risk #5: Under-Performance
Combined Effect of the Core Risks
Core Risks as an Indicator of Completeness
14. A Defined Process for Risk Discovery
Naming the Disincentives
The Defined Process
Step 1: Catastrophe Brainstorm
Step 2: Scenario-Building
Step 3: Root Cause Analysis
The WinWin Alternative
15. Risk Management Dynamics
Risk Management from Comeuppance On
Closure Metrics
Boundary Elements Closure
EVR (First Pass)
16. Incrementalism for Risk Mitigation
By Incremental Delivery, We Mean . . .
Reactive Incrementalism (the Not-So-Great Approach)
Proactive Incrementalism
Undeliverable Increments
The Incremental Delivery Plan
Calculation and Use of EVR (Pass Two)
Incrementalism: A Summing Up
17. The Ultimate Risk Mitigation Strategy
The Joke’s On Us
Gutsy and Gutless Management
Why the Early Start Option Is Important Even If You Can’t Do It
Part IV: How Much
18. Value Quantification
What’s Different Today?
The Question of Accountability
Remedial Moment: The 45,328 Reasons We Can’t Specify Benefits Precisely
Your Company’s Biggest Risks
Five Elements of Benefit Calculation
19. Value Is Uncertain, Too
Benefit? Well, That Depends . . .
The Market Window
News from the Real World
20. Sensitivity Analysis
If This Is the Solution, What Is the Problem?
Incremental Value/Cost Analysis
Economies and Diseconomies of Scale
Back to the Real World
21. Value Offsets Risk
Death-March Projects
Take Risks Justified by Value
22. Refining the Risk Management Prescription
What It Means to Do Risk Management (Refined and Elaborated)
Part V: Whether or Not
23. Test for Risk Management
The Did We Really Do Risk Management? Test
Appendix A. The Ethics of Belief, Part 1
Appendix B. Risk Template
References
Recommended Articles
Recommended Books
Recommended Websites
Related References
Index
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22. Refining the Risk Management Prescription
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23. Test for Risk Management
Part V: Whether or Not
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• How do we know whether or not risk management is really being practiced?
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