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Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era
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Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era
by Sarah Watt House, Azhar Iqbal, John E. Silvia
Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era
Preface/Justification
FOUR CHARACTERISTICS OF A LESS-THAN- PERFECT ECONOMY
WHY THIS BOOK?
Acknowledgments
CHAPTER 1 Setting the Context
THE PROBLEM WITH UNCRITICAL ASSUMPTIONS IN A LESS-THAN-PERFECT ECONOMY
THE PROBLEM WITH MODELS IN AN IMPERFECT ECONOMY
FOUR CHARACTERISTICS OF A LESS-THAN-PERFECT ECONOMY
ECONOMIC POLICY INCONSISTENCIES—THE PARABLE OF STRANGE BEDFELLOWS
NOTES
CHAPTER 2 Dynamic Adjustment in an Economy: Frictions Matter
INTRODUCTION
QUANTIFYING FRICTIONS: IS THE LONG-RUN AVERAGE A USEFUL GUIDE FOR THE FUTURE?
MODELING DYNAMIC ADJUSTMENT DUE TO ECONOMIC FRICTIONS: DECISION MAKING IN AN EVOLVING WORLD
DYNAMIC ECONOMIC ADJUSTMENT: AN EVOLUTION UNTO ITSELF
Appendix
A CASE FOR THE MULTIPLE MARKETS: 1983–2008
THE LABOR MARKET: 1983–2008
NOTES
CHAPTER 3 Information: Past Imperfect, Present Incomplete, Future Uncertain
STORY BEHIND THE NUMBERS
CONCLUSION
NOTES
CHAPTER 4 Price Adjustment and Search for Equilibrium
WHAT BARRIERS ARE THERE TO PERFECTLY FLEXIBLE PRICES?
IMPLICATIONS
FINDING DYNAMIC ADJUSTMENT IN THE DATA
CONCLUSION
NOTES
CHAPTER 5 Business Investment: This Time is Different
DRIVERS OF BUSINESS SPENDING
PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER: EXPLAINING SLOW RECOVERY IN CAPITAL INVESTMENT
NOTES
CHAPTER 6 Corporate Profits: Reward, Incentive, and That Standard of Living
INTRODUCTION: PROFITS AS ESSENTIAL PARTNER
THE ROLE OF PROFITS IN THE ECONOMIC CYCLE: FIVE DRIVERS
THE ROLE OF PROFITS: INCENTIVES AND REWARDS
CONCLUDING REMARKS: MODELING PROFITS
NOTES
CHAPTER 7 Labor Market Evolution: Implications for Private-Sector and Public-Policy Decision Makers
PART I: LABOR MARKET IMPERFECTIONS
PART II: HETEROGENEITY IN THE LABOR MARKET
PART III: HOW DO SECULAR LABOR MARKET TRENDS IMPACT ECONOMIC POLICY?
NOTES
CHAPTER 8 Inflation: When What You Get Isn’t What You Expect
INTRODUCTION
WHAT IS INFLATION?
WHY DOES INFLATION MATTER?
WHAT DETERMINES INFLATION?
INFLATION AFTER THE GREAT RECESSION
APPLICATION: PREDICTING IF CENTRAL BANKS CAN ACHIEVE PRICE STABILITY
NOTES
CHAPTER 9 Interest Rates and Credit: Capital Markets in the Post–Great Recession World
IMPERFECT GUIDANCE IN AN UNCERTAIN WORLD
A LOOK AT ACTUAL HISTORY OVER THE LONG RUN
CREDIT AND ADMINISTERED RATES
IMPERFECT INFORMATION AND CREDIT
CONCLUSION: SHIFT FROM HISTORICAL BENCHMARKS
NOTES
CHAPTER 10 Three-Dimensional Checkers: Open Economy, Capital Flows, and Exchange Rates
NEWTON’S THIRD LAW
INTRODUCING A NEW PRICE TO THE ANALYSIS: THE ROLE OF EXCHANGE RATES
THREE-DIMENSIONAL CHECKERS ON AN INTERNATIONAL PLAYING FIELD
A PERFECT MODEL IN AN IMPERFECT WORLD
CONCLUDING REMARKS: FUTURE LOOKS DIFFERENT
NOTES
CHAPTER 11 Assessing Economic Policy in an Imperfect Economy
GENERALIZED POLICY MODEL
RULES AND REPUTATION: BEYOND ECONOMIC BENCHMARKS
CONFRONTING OUR THREE MARKET IMPERFECTIONS
ECONOMIC POLICY IN THE CONTEXT OF AN IMPERFECT ECONOMY
NOTES
About the Authors
JOHN E. SILVIA
AZHAR IQBAL
SARAH WATT HOUSE
Index
EULA
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Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era
Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era
Incomplete Data, Imperfect Markets
John Silvia
Azhar Iqbal
Sarah Watt House
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