Chapter 7. Managing Risk

7.1 Chapter Objectives

After reading and thinking about the concepts and case studies presented in this chapter, you will be able to do the following:

• Identify major risks as they pertain to software projects and the decisions about risk that will impact a project

• Identify key issues and decisions involving the management of risks (or lack thereof) in the chapter case studies

• Use the chapter concepts to suggest feasible solutions to the problems faced by the case study stakeholders

7.2 Context

Risk management activities are an integral part of what project managers and team members should practice and make decisions about on a software project. Since risk is inherent in projects, the question is not whether risks will materialize but rather when will they do so. Experienced managers recognize the need to systematically identify, analyze, and mitigate the risks faced by their project. They need to communicate with the project stakeholders (for example, their team, the client, and management) to apprise them of project risks, the actions to be taken to mitigate these risks, and the potential consequences associated with these risks. In particular, they need to be aware of and consider the risks associated with their project decisions.

In the PEAK decision model, risk is one of the outputs of decisions that are made for a project. In a way, managing risk means managing the level of risk that is tolerable to the project as each project decision is made. The basic risk management activities discussed later in the chapter apply to the management of general project risks, but understanding that risk is inherently part of making choices is also key to managing risk. The fastest way to get people to think about what they are doing is to ask them the simple question, “Are you sure?” Having to face the risks involved in making decisions stimulates people to question or evaluate their choices.

Using the PEAK model to make transparent the risk associated with each decision (or chosen solution) is one way to make risk management an integral part of a project. Decision makers can ask what-if questions about the inputs to the decision model to identify and verify the factors that contribute to the risk associated with each alternative solution. They can verify that the risks associated with the alternative solutions are valid and can more confidently use this information to make a decision.

Many of the common software project risks originate from decisions that are made about the topics discussed in this book, such as requirements, estimates, plans, product, and so on. But some software project risks specifically have to do with issues involving scope (S), time (T), quality (Q), and cost (C), which we have discussed throughout the book as the four STQC dimensions of a software project. Table 7-1 contains a suggested set of questions to help you evaluate the risk associated with the STQC dimensions of a software project via the inputs to the PEAK decision model. By answering these questions, you can determine how well the risk associated with each STQC is being managed for your project. You can incorporate these evaluation questions into your process for managing software project risk. Now examine the table, and think about how you would answer these questions for your current software project.

Table 7-1: Risk Management of STQC Dimensions Using PEAK

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Both practitioners and students should understand and perform the activities critical to managing project risk. These activities are listed here and described in Table 7-2 in detail. Study the table, and think about how you would perform these risk management activities for your software project. Are there any other activities that you have performed to manage project risk?

• Defining a threshold of success

• Identifying risks

• Formulating risk statements

• Mitigating, tracking, and controlling risk

• Communicating about risk

• Trading off resources when making decisions about how to manage risk

Table 7-2: Descriptions of Activities in Managing Risk

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Software project managers need to be aware that managing risk is done throughout the life cycle of the project. Identifying risk conditions early in the project enables project managers to mitigate, track, and control potential risks before they can result in problems for the project. That is why exploring and resolving unknowns in the requirements should be done before the requirements are finalized, a topic that is discussed in more detail in Chapter 2, “Managing Requirements.” But even after the requirements are established, project unknowns may arise and should be resolved as soon possible if they are considered to be risk conditions with a potentially high impact on project success. An effective risk management approach involves all the risk management activities and is applied consistently and continuously from the beginning of the project until the end.

Managing risk is an integral part of managing decisions. Evaluating and making project decisions should encompass the assessment of risk associated with alternative solutions. Therefore, all the chapters in the book discuss risk in the context of making project decisions.

For information about managing project risks as an approach to decision making, see Chapman and Ward (2002). Gluch (1994) and Williams et al. (1999) provide additional information about stating risks for software development projects in a condition-consequence form. Mojtahedi et al. (2008) discuss a group decision-making approach to perform risk identification and analysis concurrently. Dillon and Tinsley (2008) discuss how prior mistakes are opportunities to learn how to better manage risk in future decisions. To learn about managing risk in global development, see Hussey and Hall (2007). Warkentin et al. (2009) present an integrative framework for analyzing systems development project risks.

7.3 Case Studies

The two case studies in this chapter focus on aspects of managing risk that are often overlooked by software project stakeholders. In the first case study, “SEWeb and Russoft Technologies,” the software project managers encounter unexpected problems related to their work with an offshore development team located in Russia and the cross-cultural differences that arise. The second case study, “Falcon Edutainment and the RiskSim Project,” presents a project whose troubles stem from the client-developer interaction. Decisions made on both projects appear to have led the developers and customers down paths none of them wanted to take. Minimal risk management was applied in both cases. Read these cases to determine the risks and decisions that led to project problems.

7.4 Summary

The chapter discussed the following activities for managing risk in the context of decision making for a software project:

• Defining a threshold of success

• Identifying risks

• Formulating risk statements

• Mitigating, tracking, and controlling risk

• Communicating about risk

• Trading off resources in making decisions about how to manage risk

The case studies focused on how poor or no risk management can lead to project problems. The first case, “SEWeb and Russoft Technologies,” involved unexpected problems encountered while working with an offshore development team located in Russia. The second case, “Falcon Edutainment and the RiskSim Project,” presented a project whose troubles stemmed from the client-developer interaction. The software project managers in both cases considered schedule and budget in making decisions, but they did not identify, evaluate, and mitigate the risks associated with their decisions.

Software project managers frequently do risk management in a haphazard way or simply ignore it. The case studies highlighted project risks that could have been identified and managed but were not. The resulting project problems are classical examples of project risk conditions that can be disastrous if they are not managed. Risk management is an integral part of evaluating and making project decisions.

Risk management is an ongoing event in the life of a software project and, when not done correctly or at all, can lead to disastrous results.

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