The global human population had reached eight billion by the end of 2022. And the number is projected to escalate steadily to 8.5 billion in 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050, and 11.2 billion in 2100. India is expected to outnumber China four to six years from now (United Nations 2015, 2017). Cities have been the centers of human culture and economic activity for centuries, attracting skilled workers and productive businesses worldwide. In the upcoming years, most major cities’ populations will continually increase (Rockefeller Foundation 2014). Many more people from remote and rural areas will flow into the cities to seek opportunities for a better lifestyle and quality of life.
Regarding this information, Dobbs et al. (2012) projected that between 2010 and 2025, an estimated 600 million inhabitants would populate only around 440 cities, which are expected to generate roughly half of global GDP growth. These people are drawn to cities by job opportunities, economic activities, and modern productivity. Moreover, more than half of the projected increase in global population up to 2050 will be concentrated in just eight countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, and the United Republic of Tanzania. Disparate growth rates among the world’s largest countries will reorder their ranking by size (United Nations 2022). In Africa, the extreme population growth is driven by East Africa, Middle Africa, and West Africa, in which regions are projected to more than quintuple their populations over the twenty-first century. The most extreme of these is Middle Africa, with an estimated population increase of 681%, from less than 100 million in 2000 to more than 750 million in 2100 (almost half of this figure is driven by the Democratic Republic of the Congo, projected to increase from 47 million in 2000 to 362 million in 2100 (UN 2022)). For this reason, infrastructure systems will play primary roles in city system mechanisms to support and ease human well-being.
As the twenty-first century unfolds, the occurrences of catastrophic and unforeseen events, such as climate change, disease pandemics, economic fluctuations, and terrorist attacks, have played out on a global scale. Moreover, the International Council of Local Environmental Initiatives (Mitroliou and Kavanaugh 2015) suggests that urban risk and vulnerability levels tend to keep increasing due to the number of people living in the cities. They are also exceedingly unpredictable due to the complexity of city systems, exacerbated by the uncertainty of external variables (Rockefeller Foundation 2014). Resilience is a significant component of the cities’ long-term planning and sustainable development (Mitroliou and Kavanaugh 2015). As cities all over the world are facing numerous risks and vulnerabilities posed in particular by climate change, natural disasters, and economic recession, the terms “resilient city” and “city resilience” have emerged over recent years in response to the need for more security and protection (ARUP 2012). These terms refer to cities that can withstand and recover from any disturbance or disruption of unexpected events while maintaining their essential functions, structures, and identity.
However, the current efforts on the subject are more likely to be practical or feasible in the short term, as they only seek to improve existing technological and infrastructural systems by evidence from past experiences (Yanez and Kernaghan 2014). In other words, climate change, disease pandemics, economic fluctuations, and terrorist attacks are not a set of threatening events in which simplistic implementation or remediation plans can provide the city with sustainable and resilient solutions. And yet ARUP (2012) suggest that applying the concept of resilience to cities requires different sets of professional and practical entry points, especially different scales of multiple collaborations. These approaches would create a severe challenge in clearly defining city resilience in a way that can be succinctly communicated and cautiously implemented.
Under these circumstances, the analysis and assessment of risks and vulnerabilities will continue to play essential roles in planning and developing existing and next-generation critical infrastructure (CI) systems. Additionally, stakeholders, including governments, donors, investors, and policy-makers, must also ensure that their investments, strategies, regulation, and decisions will reduce or even eliminate the potential risks and vulnerabilities and enhance the city’s resilience. Thus, it is a crucial moment that a concept of resilience is not only needed to enlighten the development direction of cities, but a resilience-based action is also required to ensure the performability and capability of city systems in the future (Yanez and Kernaghan 2014).
CIs represent systems and services, whether physical or virtual, so vital and ubiquitous to the nation that their destruction or incapacitation would cause a debilitating effect on national security, economy, safety, healthcare, or any combination of those matters (US Department of Homeland Security 2013). The high level of development and functionality in human society assumes a longer list of CI systems and a more severe dependence on them and interdependence among them. According to the US Department of Homeland Security (US Department of Homeland Security 2009, 2013), the most notable CI systems include chemicals, commercial facilities, communications, critical manufacturing, dams, defense industrial bases, emergency services, energy, financial services, food and agriculture, government facilities, healthcare and public health, information technology, nuclear reactors – materials – waste, transportation systems, and water supply and wastewater systems.
Over the last decades, the advancements in CI systems, such as current information, cloud technology, clean energy, intelligent transportation systems, and better healthcare systems, have significantly changed human and societal well-being (Moteff 2005). Many new inventions and technologies have aided the world with comfort and convenience available daily; society has become dependent upon them to survive. CI systems, however, can have service interruptions for many reasons. A service interruption to any infrastructure system would have a more or less negative impact on the typical functionality of society. The Internet, for instance, is now an integral part of human life and business activities. An unexpected interruption with its service would result in disruption to everyday routines or operations. CI systems in the digital era are indispensable. They support various national activities, from food and agricultural production to electricity and power generation. Table 2.1 provides a collection of more or less formal definitions for CIs.
Table 2.1 Defining features for CIs.
Author(s) | Perspectives on infrastructures |
---|---|
US Congress 2001, p. 115 Stat. 401 | … systems and assets, whether physical or virtual, so vital to the United States that the incapacity or destruction of such systems and assets would have a debilitating impact on security, national economic security, national public health or safety, or any combination of those matters |
European Council 2004, p. 3 | … consist of those physical and information technology facilities, networks, services and assets which, if disrupted or destroyed, would have a serious impact on the health, safety, security or economic well-being of citizens or the effective functioning of governments in the Member States |
Germany Federal Ministry of the Interior, FRG 2009, p. 4 | … organizational and physical structures and facilities of such vital importance to a nation’s society and economy that their failure or degradation would result in sustained supply shortages, significant disruption of public safety and security, or other dramatic consequences |
Clinton 1996, p. 37347 | … are so vital that their incapacity or destruction would have a debilitating impact on the defense or economic security of the United States |
Zio 2016, p. 99 | … large scale, man-made systems that function interdependently to produce and distribute essential goods (such as energy, water and data) and services (such as transportation, banking and healthcare). An infrastructure is termed critical if its incapacity or destruction has a significant impact on health, safety, security, economics and social well-being |
Gheorghe et al. 2006, p. 5 | Infrastructures are critical because they provide services that are vital to one or more broad governmental or societal functions or attributes. This can be related to survivability of citizens as far as the safety of their life is concerned, or to their quality of life |
Gheorghe and Katina 2014, p. 195 | The domain of critical infrastructures deals with engineering systems which are characterized by a high degree of technical complexity, social intricacy, and elaborate processes, aimed at fulfilling important functions in the society |
Calida and Katina 2012, p. 87 | … current approach to CI protection and mitigation primarily focuses on large malicious and cataclysmic events of terrorism, cyber-attacks, and natural events… [there is] … need to understand the slow, evolving, and inane events that could accumulate into significant events over-time |
CIs are essential to modern society and provide goods and services that enable the maintenance and sustainment of public well-being, including public safety, economic vitality, and security. Discussions concerning the deterioration of public works have always dominated infrastructure. Additionally, Vaughan and Pollard (1984) postulated that public well-being depended on services provided by roads, bridges, water and sewer systems, airports, ports, public buildings, schools, health facilities, jails, recreation facilities, electric power production, fire safety, solid waste disposal, and telecommunications infrastructures. However, the increasing occurrences of man-made events (e.g. acts of terrorism) have resulted in widening concerns in the infrastructure field.
The increasing focus on natural events (i.e. hurricanes, floods, tornados, earthquakes, heat waves, and pandemics), as well as man-made events (i.e. theft and vandalism, acts of terrorism, and sabotage), has led to multiple legislative actions (e.g. President’s Commision of Critical Infrastructure Protection (PCCIP) of 1996, Presidential Decision Directive No. 63 of 1998, and the European Programme for Critical Infrastructure Protection of 2004). These legislative actions have protected CIs and the beneficiaries of their continued operation, including owners, operators, and consumers. At the most fundamental level, an effective paradigm for infrastructures must establish the conceptual underpinnings and provide the foundation for the future coherent development of the field. In effect, this foundation must offer a reference base from which coherence and identity for the field can reside. However, we presently question whether this foundation can be definitively identified for the CI field. This suggestion stems from our analysis of the current state of the CI field, summarized with the following assertions:
However, societal changes continue to shape the field and the meaning of the term CIs. For example, infrastructures identified as critical in the 1996 PCCIP include “telecommunications, electrical power systems, gas and oil storage and transportation, banking and finance, transportation, water supply systems, emergency services (including medical, police, fire, and rescue), and continuity of government” (Clinton 1996, p. 37347). Subsequently, the Homeland Security Presidential Directive (HSPD-7), which was issued in 2003, identified terrorism as its area of focus and introduced the notions of key resources, public morale, and confidence as significant elements that can have a debilitating impact on society’s well-being (The White House 2003). Moreover, previously unidentified elements (sectors) such as chemical and hazardous, and postal and shipping industries are now characterized as critical (The White House 2003). These shifts are not surprising considering the still early stages of an emerging CI field.
Most recently, national monuments, icons, dams, and critical manufacturing have been identified as critical under an annex to the National Infrastructure Protection Plan (Obama 2013; Thorsen and Keil 2013). The broadening of the term CIs is also evident in the Patriot Act of 2001 when compared to the 1996 PCCIP. The Patriot Act is concerned with “security, national economic security, national public health or safety, or any combination of those matters” (US Congress 2001, p. 115 Stat. 401), although conversely, PCCIP was mainly concerned with “defense or economic security” (Clinton 1996, p. 37347) of the United States. Again, the palpable shifting landscape of CI can be seen through the expanding boundaries of evolving perspectives as well as legislative actions.
Furthermore, the CI field encompasses the notion of soft targets within infrastructures brought about by computing and information technologies. Ubiquitous computing and omnipresent information technologies connect infrastructures and transform them into interdependent systems (Cavelty 2007a, 2007b; Rinaldi et al. 2001). This has created a new landscape for cyber-battles with potentially faceless agents and organizations seeking to exploit vulnerabilities in susceptible cyber and physical infrastructures. Access to cheap computing power, use of software-based control systems, and applying commercial off-the-shelf technologies are essential in maintaining and serving CIs. However, Cavelty (2007b) suggests that this also represents a source of threat to the availability of goods and services of infrastructures due to lack of security. A challenge for modern society is ensuring that computing and information systems such as SCADA do not become an Achilles’ heel as exploiting vulnerabilities in information systems continues to become a preferred mode of attack against well-fortified CIs. The expansion of CI to include information represents another major evolution of the field, further expanding both the boundaries and interconnectedness of the CI field.
In the abovementioned discussion, we introduced situation-based CIs. Situation-based CIs encompass taken-for-granted systems that become critical due to increased need after an adverse event (e.g. a pandemic) – planned or otherwise. An example is technology platforms such as Zoom. That was demonstrated dramatically on Monday, August 24, 2020, when a widespread outage blocked many users from accessing Zoom. Just before 6 a.m. Pacific time, the company acknowledged the problem in a statement: “We are currently investigating and will provide updates as we have them.” An hour later, Zoom said that it had “identified the issue” and was “working on a fix.” Finally, over three hours after it first acknowledged the problem, Zoom announced, “We have resolved the issue.” A single California-based company, Zoom, is now the foundation for education access from elementary school to graduate school. It has also become a critical tool for many businesses. When Zoom goes down, teachers can’t teach, students can’t learn, and business meetings, conferences, and webinars grind to a halt (Villasenor 2020).
Zoom, one of many social platforms, is not unique in being classified within the situation-based CIs – this conclusion is supported by other recent events as well as their implications on public well-being, including public safety, economic vitality, and security (Clancy and Frye 2020). Consider the Twitter hacks of July 15, 2020, targeting accounts of well-known national figures, including Joe Biden, Elon Musk, and leaders at Twitter, Uber, Apple, and other companies are simply part of a long history of security breaches and scandals targeting social media platforms. With millions of people being forced to stay home to help stop the spread of COVID-19, many have found creative ways to keep social through happy hours virtually, trivia nights, and birthday parties. And Zoom, one of the dozens of video conferencing services, has risen to the top, thanks to extreme separation measures and a profound resonance within this new social distancing culture.
Daily downloads of the Zoom app have increased by thirty times year-over-year, and the app has been the top free app for iPhones in the United States since March 18, 2020 according to Bernstein Research and Apptopia. Zoom said daily users spiked to 200 million in March 2020, up from 10 million in December of the previous year. But it hasn’t been without scrutiny. Privacy concerns have been rising around Zoom, including “Zoombombing,” where a malicious user will join a Zoom meeting and show explicit or disturbing images. CEO Eric Yuan apologized for the security lapses and outlined what the company is doing to fix those problems. From the inception of the CI field, we can draw three essential points:
Therefore, where the inception of the CI field provides a vital grounding insight into the context from which the field’s current state has evolved, there remains a need for continued research into methods, tools, and approaches for assessing, evaluating, protecting, and mitigating consequences in this evolving domain.
Moreover, the interconnection and interdependence between CI systems allow participants greater control, faster response times, and more information access than traditional (simple) system models. However, with such a high level of interconnection and interdependence, it is hard to determine where exactly one system ends and another begins (Gheorghe et al. 2006). The overlapping characterizations of CIs have developed to the level of risk and vulnerability inherent in any system, which requires a comprehensive and elaborate study on the subject to determine their long-term ramifications. Every possible risk and vulnerability to CI systems needs to be individually considered, measured, and addressed to prepare the implementation plan (Gheorghe 2005). The complexity of CI systems means that complete analysis and assessment for their typical operating scenarios is required, for example, how they are supposed to function daily and especially how they are expected to perform in specific circumstances or events. Systems are also needed for extensive evaluation on how vulnerable they are to interruption due to failure from risk or perhaps due to malice from terrorists or those with malicious intent (Gheorghe et al. 2006).
Currently, CI systems are exposed to multiple threats or catastrophic events, including climate change, natural disasters, institutional or regulatory changes, and terrorist attacks, which pose risks and vulnerabilities. They are highly interconnected, interdependent, and embedded in a socio-technical system of systems; therefore, it is even more challenging to predict how a crisis might evolve or what systems would be affected (Gheorghe et al. 2006). As Rinaldi (2004) stated that “CIs have become increasingly interdependent,” in the meantime, human life quality and economic prosperity have also become more dependent on their functioning (Gheorghe 2005; Moteff 2005). Indeed, their reliability and safety level should come as the top priority. Table 2.2 is adapted from Katina et al. (2014) and summarizes infrastructure interdependencies describing system relationships.
Table 2.2 Types of CI interdependencies.
Interdependency type | Relevant themes | Implications for infrastructure development |
---|---|---|
Physical interdependency | This is a relationship that “arises from the physical linkage between the inputs and outputs of two agents [where the] commodity produced or modified by one infrastructure (an output) is required by another infrastructure for it to operate (an input)” (Rinaldi et al. 2001, p. 15) such as drinking water and electricity. | A consideration of external systems’ direct and physical influence, including outputs, products, goods, and services to a system of interest. For example, an operator of a water system should be concerned with risks in the electrical grid since the availability of clean drinking water is physically dependent on the electricity used in water treatment. |
Cyber interdependency | A relationship based on the ubiquitous and pervasive use of information and communications technologies (ICT). Many critical systems provide essential goods and services with the help of control systems such as supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems that remotely monitor, and control operations using coded signals over ICT communication channels (Katina et al. 2016; Rinaldi et al. 2001). | A consideration of cyber interdependency could enable one to examine the nature of reliance on ICT within a given scenario. This analysis might include an overview of cyber aspects of a system including an articulation of relation between internal and extern systems, processes monitored and controlled, types of SCADA architectures deployed (i.e. 1st generation, 2nd generation, 3rd generation, 4th generation), and cyber-related risks as well as countermeasures. |
Geographical interdependency | This is a relationship that exists when different infrastructure systems share the same environment such as electrical power lines that share the same corridor with a bridge (DiSera and Brooks 2009; Katina et al. 2014). | This involves a consideration of geographical interdependencies associated with the need for a common environment that typically enables coupling of infrastructure systems. Coupling creates a situation in which an attack on one is an attack to all. For example, a destruction of a bridge affects electricity transmission, if there is a shared corridor. |
Logical interdependency | A logical interdependency exists between infrastructures if the state of each infrastructure depends on the state of the other via some mechanism that is neither physical, cyber, nor geographical (Rinaldi 2004) such as power deregulation policy. | An exploration into “other mechanisms” beyond physical, cyber, and geography. Other mechanisms could involve the role of time, space, perception, and geo-politics. |
Policy and/or procedural interdependency | This is a “hidden” and not-so-obvious relationship that only becomes apparent after a change, in the form of a policy and/procedure that takes effect in one part of the system. For example, several regulations that were issued in the wake of the 9/11 attacks affected all air transport systems, changing the flying experience (Mendonca and Wallace 2006). | Attempts to feedforward and the development of scenarios that might offer insights into how quality of goods and services could be influenced by changes in policy at national, state, regional, and local level. The intent of such efforts is the discovery of possible direct effects of changes as well as “unintended” consequences on critical infrastructures. |
Societal interdependency | Societal interdependency is a situation in which infrastructure operations are affected by public opinion. For example, after the 9/11 attacks, air traffic was reduced due to the public’s evaluation of travel safety, resulting in job cuts and bankruptcies (Dudenhoeffer et al. 2006; Katina et al. 2014). | This analysis involves examination of public opinion on critical topics as they relate to infrastructure goods, services, and operations. The intent of such efforts is an attempt to understand the impact of infrastructure operations. This might include, for example, understanding public perception of emerging concepts, for example, Smart Grids. |
Safeguards against single-point failures generally depend on the proper functioning of the rest of the national infrastructure, a plausible assumption for high-reliability infrastructure systems when they experience random, uncorrelated single-point failures (Georgescu et al. 2019). Single-point losses can be anticipated in the design of infrastructure systems. The planning for multiple failures, particularly when they are closely correlated in time, is much less common, yet this is where CI systems operate – a scenario with the loss of hundreds or even thousands of nodes across all the critical national infrastructures, all simultaneously. Particularly difficult to anticipate are situations in which simultaneous failures can bring dormant and previously hidden interaction pathways, in which a destructively synergistic amplification of failure, normally locally contained, may be propagated through the network at large (Foster et al. 2008). In particular, Charles Perrow has drawn attention to these types of failures, which he has termed normal accidents, and which are posited as an inherent property of any tightly coupled system once a threshold of complexity has been passed (Perrow 1999).
The multitude and variety of nodes and links in these networks, the operations and services deployed, and the hosts of owners, operators, suppliers, and users involved have created enormously convoluted constructs. The intricacy of infrastructures limits understanding of their behavior and, consequently, the options to control and steer the processes involved effectively. There is an urgent need to generate more systematic knowledge of these complex systems if one is to handle the many threats and vulnerabilities adequately. In this case, one might argue in support of Arbesman (Arbesman 2016, p. 2):
Our technologies – from websites and trading systems to urban infrastructures, scientific models, and even the supply chains and logistics that power large businesses – have become hopelessly interconnected and overcomplicated, such that in many cases even those who build and maintain then [sic] on a daily basis can’t fully understand them any longer.
The aforementioned statement should not come as a surprise, given the increasing number of failures associated with such systems. Critical infrastructure protection (CIP) has emerged as a means to provide a comprehensive framework for managing such systems. CIP needs to involve stakeholder models, agent-principal models, decision-making models, public-private partnerships with attendant legislation, lines of communication and feedback, security standards, technical systems, security culture, modeling, and simulation capabilities. It is thus, not a surprise that CI work with several closed-related concepts, the most important of which are (Georgescu et al. 2019; Hokstad et al. 2012; Johnson and Gheorghe 2013; Katina and Hester 2013):
Table 2.3 Different perspectives on governance.
Governance type | Description | Proponents |
---|---|---|
Process-centric | A governing arrangement where one or more public agencies directly engage non-state stakeholders in a collective decision-making process that is formal, consensus-oriented, and deliberative and that aims to make or implement public policy or manage public programs or assets | Ansell and Gash 2008, p. 544 |
… social turbulence kept within bounds, and change steered in desired directions … preserves order and continuity, but not necessarily the maintenance of the status quo | Dunsire 1990, p. 18 | |
Structure-centric | … the totality of conceptual ideas about these Interactions … (these in relation to the act of governing) | Kooiman 2003, p. 79 |
… the activity of coordinating communications in order to achieve collective goals through collaboration | Willke 2007, p. 10 | |
State-centric | … the process through which state and nonstate actors interact to design and implement policies within a given set of formal and informal rules that shape and are shaped by power … | The World Bank 2017, p. 3 |
Hybrid | … the reflexive self-organization of independent actors involved in complex relations of reciprocal interdependence, with such self-organization being based on continuing dialogue and resource-sharing to develop mutually beneficial joint projects and to manage the contradictions and dilemmas inevitably involved in such situations | Jessop 2003, p.142 |
… interdependence between organizations … continuing interactions between network members, caused by the need to exchange resources and negotiate shared purposes … game-like interactions, rooted in trust and regulated by rules of the game negotiated and agreed by network participants … a significant degree of autonomy; they are self-organizing | Rhodes 2007, p. 1246 | |
Corporate governance | … the system of checks and balances, both internal and external to companies, which ensures that companies discharge their accountability to all their stakeholders and act in a socially responsible way in all areas of their business activity | Solomon and Brennan 2008, p. 890 |
New public management | … the means for achieving direction, control, and coordination of wholly or partially autonomous individuals or organizations on behalf of interests to which they jointly contribute | Lynn et al. 2000, p. 235 |
Public policy | … the ways in which stakeholders interact with each other in order to influence the outcomes of public policies | Bovaird 2005, p. 220 |
… the processes and institutions, both formal and informal, that guide and restrain the collective activities of a group | Nye et al. 2000 | |
International security | … the emergence and recognition of principles, norms, rules and behavior that both provide standards of acceptable public behavior and that are followed sufficiently to produce behavioral regularities | Keohane and Nye 1977 |
Social and political | Governance denotes the structures and processes which enable a set of public and private actors to coordinate their interdependent needs and interests through the making and implementation of binding policy decisions in the absence of a central political authority | Krahmann 2003, p. 11 |
… arrangements in which public as well as private actors aim at solving societal problems or create societal opportunities, and aim at the care for the societal institutions within which these governing activities take place | Kooiman 2000, p. 139 | |
Earth | … the interrelated and increasingly integrated system of formal and informal rules, rule-making systems, and actor-networks at all levels of human society (from local to global) that are set up to steer societies towards preventing, mitigating, and adapting to global and local environmental change and, in particular, earth system transformation, within the normative context of sustainable development | Biermann et al. 2009 |
Any of the above can (and should) generate a robust discussion in the context of CI systems. The present volume, however, emphasizes the development of resilient cities through gamification.
Again, CI systems are networks of complex systems that provide essential services to a population or nation. The systems are complex by nature because they are widely distributed across large geographical regions and are becoming increasingly interconnected and interdependent as they evolve, boosting the potential for risk and vulnerability. And yet, there is a scarcity of practical approaches to quantify vulnerability in CIs. In previous research (see Gheorghe et al. 2018), the proposed model offered: (i) a two-parameter description of the vulnerability and the respective equation of the state of the system: “operable” and “inoperable;” (ii) a division of the two-parameter phase space of the system into “vulnerability basins;” and (iii) a scale of 0–100 “vulnerability” and the means to measure the respective “vulnerability index.” In essence, the proposed method can offer the ability to diagnose current system vulnerability. The technique uses an extensive set of indicators involving internal and external elements with the capability to monitor the time-evolvement of the vulnerability as change occurs dynamically.
Risks and vulnerability may seem separate, but they are fundamentally interrelated concepts that have broad implications for CI systems. Risk, technically, refers to a measure of the probability and severity of undesirable outcomes (adverse effects) resulting from a threat, incident, event, or occurrence to the system. More specifically, it is a combination of the likelihood of an event occurring and the consequences of the event. Probability is a measure of the uncertainty of occurrence of the event or scenario that initiates the event, while a consequence is represented as levels of severity (Aven 2010). Risk quantification in this manner is intentionally used both as an analysis and design tool. For an analysis tool, risk assessment can begin with presumed scenarios that are considered threats against continued operation or system performance to discover the system’s weaknesses. As a design tool, reliability values can be applied to system functions based on their malfunctioning or failure state where misleading data is generated from the system’s purposes without detection (Gheorghe and Yuchnovicz 2015). So much so that by developing risk analysis to set reliability design goals, the attempts would deliberately lead to better design of resilient systems, which respectively make CI systems less susceptible to threats.
On the other hand, vulnerability is “a fault or weakness that reduces or limits a system’s ability to withstand a threat or to resume a new stable condition” (Aven 2007). Based on this definition, a threat is an event or scenario with an associated uncertainty (probability of occurrence) and corresponding consequence (level of severity). CI systems are becoming so complex that they can be vulnerable to various events based on their system characteristics and intended functions. Vulnerability analysis and assessment can unveil the events that can be harmful to a system, and must be conducted in all phases of operation and system configurations. Risk analysis and assessment of these events will allow further quantification of the events regarding uncertainty and the consequence of occurrence regarding severity. Overall knowledge of risk and vulnerability assessments will help to prioritize risk mitigation efforts.
For more than a decade, CI systems protection and resilience have received serious attention from public and private sectors, including government, academic institutions, and profit and non-profit research foundations. It has also become a national top priority mission in most developed countries (US Department of Homeland Security 2013). Nevertheless, the sheer complexity of CI systems has shifted the degree of investigation to a level where much more comprehensive research on the subject is significantly imperative. The basic study of essential systems of infrastructure resilience framework is now moving toward the discipline of modeling and simulation to determine system sustainment and future development direction. For instance, Kröger (2008) strongly asserts that to successfully develop the vulnerability reduction model for CI systems, the risk management, and risk governance strategies must be clearly defined. Second, advanced object-oriented programming and simulation tools are needed to analyze and assess.
Decision-making is a fundamental part of human life. Decisions can be made quickly and efficiently when the objectives are clear, the information necessary to evaluate alternatives is available, and the outcomes of decisions can be accurately predicted. However, as the complexity of the decision increases, the decision-making process becomes more difficult because of the number of factors that must be considered for the analysis. In other words, the decision is directly related to the value assigned to its consequences or results, especially when it involves large-scale complex systems and can significantly impact the population or a nation. In this case, Risk-Informed Decision-Making Process (RIDMP) is a method that was designed to fulfill this gap. This technique intends that whenever there is a significant decision between design alternatives, the process can inform decision-makers about the risk involved in each alternative (Zio and Pedroni 2012).
According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA, 2010), RIDMP is a fundamentally deliberative process that uses diverse performance measures and other considerations to inform decision-making. This approach combines the input of stakeholders as well as cost and feasibility and then focuses on informing the decision makers (NASA 2010; Zio and Pedroni 2012). With this applicability, a decision can be made with considerations beyond just technical information. Unfortunately, one issue with RIDMP is that it is impossible to include or evaluate every risk for each alternative in all decision-making situations. There are insufficient resources to assess all risks, especially for decisions involving complexly interconnected and interdependent systems. Also, even if enough resources were available, there would always be unforeseen or unknown risks constantly emerging due to the operation and evolution of the systems and their environment. In recent years, resilient governance has rapidly received more attention and popularity in academic and industrial societies. This paradigm is now shifting from the risk and vulnerability perspective to the view of resilience (Mitchell 2013). For this reason, resilience should also be included as part of the decision-making process in what would be called the “Resilience-Informed Decision-Making Process (ReIDMP).”
ReIDMP could simply be taken as an extended version of RIDMP. However, the concept of resilience is considered instead of looking at risk. This idea seems partially correct because, in reality, there are apparent differences. To be more specific, RIDMP focuses on identifying and understanding every risk and vulnerability in all possible aspects and then selecting the best alternative to prevent those potential risks and vulnerabilities. ReIDMP should focus on a comprehensive study of the effectiveness of selected alternatives based on the ability to recover. So much so that an informed decision can be made concerning striving for a resilient solution. A step further would be to analyze and assess the ability of the system to anticipate, absorb, restore, and adapt to the effects of catastrophic and threatening events in a timely and efficient manner (Mitchell and Harris 2012). ReIDMP has required a completed analysis of all the alternatives evaluated during the decision-making process.
We suggest that when policy-makers are armed with resilience-based action approaches, they can select the most effective and viable solution to resilient issues. Meantime, the ReIDMP may also provide other benefits since it can enhance the analysis and deliberation results of alternatives. For instance, there may be some situations where an option can be selected if additional required actions are done to improve infrastructure resilience. Furthermore, as the population of the world continues to grow, the demand for essential services and facilities will continue to increase. It’s no surprise that the trend is expected to be on sustainable and resilient development to address present issues without compromising the need of the next generations. CI systems are at the heart of this discussion. To enable making decisions on how to increase the resilience of CI systems and drive down risk and vulnerability, an in-depth analysis needs to be performed to define the primary areas of investment. The essential resources are limited; therefore, the selection of knowledge to focus on should be carefully made to prevent expending the resources in a way that minimizes CIs. In particular, education and experience are keys to ensuring CI systems resilience. The true meaning of resilience is that engineering managers and systems engineers are correctly educated about the risks, vulnerabilities, and hazards that essential systems of infrastructure may face and what to do in catastrophic events. CI systems that are better prepared to deal with events like natural disasters and terrorist attacks will have a better chance of quicker recovery. The remainder of this book expounds on the means to develop a resilience quantification platform based on an informed decision-making process resulting in better understanding and guidance on sustainable and resilient development of CI systems. Simultaneously, gamification, as part of “serious gaming,” and “SimCity (2013)®” are introduced as means for teaching and learning concepts of risks and vulnerability.
1 Discuss the relevance of CI systems.
2 Discuss emerging risks and their possible impacts on the functionality of CI systems.
3 Why is resilience a relevant aspect of managing infrastructure systems?
4 Discuss the critical attributes of resilience in CI systems.
5 How can governance be related to risk and vulnerability in infrastructure systems?